@commonsenseplay

Independent investor and financial commentator

Domain Expertise:

Stock market analysisInvestment valuationCryptocurrency and tech sector critiques

Detected Biases:

Bearish on overhyped tech and quantum stocksValue-oriented investing perspective favoring fundamentals over speculation

80%

Average Truthfulness

Post Analyzed

Who Is This Person?

The Twitter account @commonsenseplay, operated under the name 'Common Sense Investor', focuses on financial analysis, stock market commentary, and critiques of overhyped investments in sectors like quantum computing, cryptocurrency, and tech stocks. Recent activities include posts analyzing Rigetti Computing ($RGTI) stock performance, questioning valuations based on revenue declines and system downtimes, speculating on Bitcoin's creator identity, and sharing personal investment positions in Meta ($META). The account appears active as of November 2025, emphasizing factual insights from company filings over CEO hype.

How Credible Are They?

80%

Baseline Score

Credible as an independent voice in retail investing, with transparent sourcing from public financial data. Lacks formal affiliations or verification, which may limit broader authority, but consistent factual approach enhances reliability for niche audiences. No red flags for misinformation or conflicts of interest.

Assessment by Grok AI

What's Their Track Record?

Posts rely on verifiable data from company filings, revenue reports, and public metrics, showing a pattern of critical but evidence-based analysis without documented inaccuracies or corrections. No fact-checks or controversies identified in available sources; the account avoids unsubstantiated claims, focusing on quantitative critiques.

What Have We Analyzed?

Recent posts and claims we've fact-checked from this author

Post by @commonsenseplay

@commonsenseplay · 3h ago

83%

Credible

HOW MUCH MICHAEL BURRY IS LIKELY TO LOSE ON HIS SHORT POSITION IN PALANTIR ( $PLTR )! Michael Burry’s Q3 2025 13F, filed Nov 14 2025, revealed a monster short: - PUTs on ~5 million Palantir (PLTR) shares which equates to $912 million notional - This one position makes up a staggering 66% of his (Scion Asset Management’s) portfolio. - He likely opened those puts sometime between July and September 2025, when PLTR traded in the $130–$170 range. - He was betting that the AI frenzy would cool. Instead, the opposite happened: - Palantir’s stock has ripped higher, now hovering around $190 a share, up ~60 % since mid-summer! - At these levels, Burry’s puts probably struck near $150 are deep out of the money and likely worthless. - Unless Palantir collapses back under $150 before expiration, those options will expire at $0. That means: 1. His $912 million notional short is effectively dead money! 2. The premium paid - potentially tens of millions of dollars is gone! 3. The total premium cost could’ve ranged between ~$50 million (if he bought near $170) and ~$136 million (if he bought closer to $130) - that’s the real money at risk, not the $912 million notional exposure. 4. It’s a pure expression of his view that AI stocks are in a bubble, but right now, the market disagrees. Burry’s Big Short call was legendary, but looks like he got it wrong this time!

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