Post by @commonsenseplay
83% credible (88% factual, 77% presentation). The post accurately details Michael Burry's Q3 2025 13F filing and Palantir's stock surge, with reasonable estimates on potential losses. However, it omits Burry's history of prescient but early contrarian calls, resulting in a framing violation that impacts the presentation quality.
Analysis Summary
The post details Michael Burry's large put options bet against Palantir from his Q3 2025 13F filing, estimating the position's notional value at $912 million and highlighting likely losses due to PLTR's stock surge to $190. Burry's short is deeply underwater, with premiums potentially lost between $50-136 million. Despite the analysis's focus on current market disagreement, counterarguments emphasize Burry's history of prescient but early calls and ongoing AI momentum.
Original Content
The Facts
The post accurately reflects details from Burry's 13F filing and recent PLTR stock trends, with estimates on premiums and losses based on reasonable assumptions about entry points and current pricing. Supporting evidence from financial news confirms the position size and market reaction, though exact premium costs are speculative without precise trade data. Mostly Accurate
Benefit of the Doubt
The author advances a bearish perspective on AI-driven stocks like PLTR, using Burry's apparent misstep to reinforce claims of an overhyped bubble and validate short-selling strategies. Emphasis is placed on immediate losses and market disagreement to portray Burry's bet as a failure, while omitting his track record of being early on major calls (e.g., 2008 crisis) and potential for AI correction over longer horizons, which could shape reader perception toward dismissing contrarian views in favor of current momentum.
Predictions Made
Claims about future events that can be verified later
HOW MUCH MICHAEL BURRY IS LIKELY TO LOSE ON HIS SHORT POSITION IN PALANTIR ( $PLTR )!
Prior: 70%. Evidence: Author credibility 80%, confirmed by news on Burry's short and PLTR at ~$190; bias toward bearish view slightly tempers. Posterior: 85%.
Unless Palantir collapses back under $150 before expiration, those options will expire at $0.
Prior: 90%. Evidence: Author expertise, no counter-evidence; current momentum against collapse. Posterior: 92%.
The premium paid - potentially tens of millions of dollars is gone!
Prior: 85%. Evidence: Options theory, author quantitative focus. Posterior: 88%.
Visual Content Analysis
Images included in the original content
VISUAL DESCRIPTION
A man in a blue polo shirt lies relaxed on a carpeted floor surrounded by open books and notebooks scattered around him; he holds a tablet displaying a screen with graphs or data, appearing to review financial information while in a casual, home-like setting.
TEXT IN IMAGE
PLTR (partial visibility on tablet screen, possibly stock ticker or chart label)
MANIPULATION
No signs of editing, inconsistencies, or artifacts; appears to be a straightforward stock photo or meme image without alterations.
TEMPORAL ACCURACY
Image lacks date stamps or time-specific clues; style suggests a generic, timeless setup relevant to current financial discussions but not tied to a specific period.
LOCATION ACCURACY
No geographical indicators like landmarks or labels; depicts an indoor, generic home/office environment that matches no specific claimed location.
FACT-CHECK
The image illustrates frustration or casual analysis of stocks, aligning with the post's theme of Burry's losing bet; no reverse image search indicates it's a common meme template for 'overthinking investments' rather than a factual depiction of Burry himself.
How Is This Framed?
Biases, omissions, and misleading presentation techniques detected
Fails to mention Burry's history of prescient but early contrarian calls, such as the 2008 crisis, which could indicate his current bet might still play out over time.
Problematic phrases:
"looks like he got it wrong this time!""Burry’s Big Short call was legendary, but"What's actually there:
Burry's successful early predictions on market bubbles
What's implied:
Definitive failure of Burry's investment strategy
Impact: Misleads readers into viewing Burry's position as a clear mistake rather than a potentially timed bet, encouraging dismissal of bearish AI perspectives in favor of current momentum.
Omits discussion of options expiration dates and potential for AI market correction, presenting the short as already worthless without full context.
Problematic phrases:
"deep out of the money and likely worthless""those options will expire at $0"What's actually there:
Expiration dates not specified; could allow time for reversal
What's implied:
Immediate and total loss with no recovery chance
Impact: Creates a perception of irreversible failure, heightening reader bias against the short position and reinforcing hype around AI stocks.
Uses language implying the bet is 'dead money' now, without clarifying timelines for expiration or market shifts, to heighten sense of immediate defeat.
Problematic phrases:
"His $912 million notional short is effectively dead money!""Unless Palantir collapses back under $150 before expiration"What's actually there:
Ongoing position with potential future value
What's implied:
Current worthlessness as final outcome
Impact: Induces false urgency, prompting readers to prematurely judge the investment as a loss and align with prevailing bullish sentiment.
Sources & References
External sources consulted for this analysis
https://www.businessinsider.com/big-short-michael-burry-palantir-stock-alex-karp-puts-ai-2025-11
https://fortune.com/2025/11/04/big-short-investor-michael-burry-nvidia-palantir-puts-alex-karp/
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/michael-burry-of-big-short-fame-discloses-bets-against-palantir-nvidia-after-bubble-warning-160833946.html
https://www.businessinsider.com/why-michael-burry-big-short-nvidia-palantir-ai-bubble-stocks-2025-11
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/04/karp-big-short-burry-palantir-nvidia.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/05/michael-burrys-new-short-bets-spook-market-and-anger-palantir-ceo-but-his-trade-is-likely-underwater.html
https://www.fool.com/investing/2025/11/10/big-short-michael-burry-wager-ai-nvidia-palantir/
https://www.cnn.com/2025/11/05/business/nvidia-palantir-michael-burry-stock
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H7NRtJP86D0
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/who-is-michael-burry-the-big-short-legend-who-has-rattled-nvidia-and-palantir/articleshow/125114170.cms?from=mdr
https://news.bitcoin.com/big-short-legend-michael-burry-bets-against-ai-boom-with-palantir-and-nvidia-puts/
https://www.businessinsider.com/why-michael-burry-big-short-nvidia-palantir-ai-bubble-stocks-2025-11
https://www.indmoney.com/blog/us-stocks/why-michael-burry-big-short-is-trending-what-it-means-for-palantir-nvidia
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/04/karp-big-short-burry-palantir-nvidia.html
https://x.com/commonsenseplay/status/1974601738880786902
https://x.com/commonsenseplay/status/1983990598790164726
https://x.com/commonsenseplay/status/1976440828416622862
https://x.com/commonsenseplay/status/1980307776317563361
https://x.com/commonsenseplay/status/1984797710176907471
https://x.com/commonsenseplay/status/1985747423764103663
https://www.businessinsider.com/big-short-michael-burry-palantir-stock-alex-karp-puts-ai-2025-11
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/michael-burry-of-big-short-fame-discloses-bets-against-palantir-nvidia-after-bubble-warning-160833946.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/04/karp-big-short-burry-palantir-nvidia.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/05/michael-burrys-new-short-bets-spook-market-and-anger-palantir-ceo-but-his-trade-is-likely-underwater.html
https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/michael-burry-fires-back-at-palantir-ceo-alex-karp-over-ai-short-jab/cLPc4HGREcZ
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/michael-burry-betting-against-palantir-130002523.html
https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/1onqo52/recent_13f_filing_of_scion_shows_michael_burry_of/
https://www.gurufocus.com/news/3201761/michael-burry-takes-bearish-stance-on-palantir-pltr
https://ts2.tech/en/palantir-pltr-jumps-as-burry-karp-spat-heats-up-fresh-q3-numbers-lofty-valuation-and-the-bull%E2%80%91vs%E2%80%91bear-case-nov-10-2025/
https://stockstotrade.com/news/palantir-technologies-inc-pltr-news-2025_11_10-2
https://www.kaohooninternational.com/markets/569948
https://www.benzinga.com/markets/tech/25/11/48785220/burrys-big-short-2-0-from-palantir-hype-to-big-techs-frauds-of-the-modern-era
https://www.businessinsider.com/big-short-michael-burry-palantir-stock-alex-karp-puts-ai-2025-11
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/who-is-michael-burry-the-big-short-legend-who-has-rattled-nvidia-and-palantir/articleshow/125114170.cms
https://x.com/commonsenseplay/status/1978588245291303115
https://x.com/commonsenseplay/status/1985362439291150788
https://x.com/commonsenseplay/status/1980307776317563361
https://x.com/commonsenseplay/status/1984797710176907471
https://x.com/commonsenseplay/status/1978827729291165873
https://x.com/commonsenseplay/status/1983990598790164726
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