Research
Long-form Bayesian investigations
Who Is Banksy? A Bayesian Investigation
We applied rigorous Bayesian analysis to quantify the probability of each candidate being the world's most famous anonymous street artist
The question "who is Banksy?" has been answered a thousand times with varying degrees of certainty and approximately zero rigour. We decided to do th…
Bayesian Analysis of Gunshot Survival Probabilities
Evidence-based probability estimates for survival across weapon types, anatomical locations, and demographic factors
A rigorous Bayesian analysis of gunshot wound survival rates using trauma data from 100,000+ civilian cases and 56,000+ military casualties. We quant…
Who Is Satoshi Nakamoto? A Bayesian Investigation
We applied rigorous Bayesian analysis to quantify the probability of each candidate being Bitcoin's creator
The question "who is Satoshi Nakamoto?" has been answered a thousand times with varying degrees of certainty and approximately zero rigour. We decide…
Who Paid the Military During Government Shutdowns? A Bayesian Investigation
Bayesian analysis of constitutional procedure reveals three distinct mechanisms across four shutdowns
Someone paid the military during government shutdowns. The troops got their paychecks. That much is documented. But who actually made it happen? We a…