Research & Analysis
Deep dives into truth, credibility, and statistical reasoning
The Wessels Case: What the Numbers Actually Tell Us About Intent
Jan-Hendrik Wessels received a nine-week ban for genital grabbing despite no conclusive video evidence. We built a Bayesian probability model using all available evidence to quantify what actually happened—and the results reveal a stunning gap between 'something occurred' and 'deliberate foul play.'
Who Is Banksy? A Bayesian Investigation
The question "who is Banksy?" has been answered a thousand times with varying degrees of certainty and approximately zero rigour. We decided to do the maths properly. Using Bayesian inference across eleven evidence categories and nine candidates, we quantified the uncertainty.
Bayesian Analysis of Gunshot Survival Probabilities
A rigorous Bayesian analysis of gunshot wound survival rates using trauma data from 100,000+ civilian cases and 56,000+ military casualties. We quantify how weapon type, shot placement, sex, age, and medical context affect your probability of surviving a gunshot wound.
Who Is Satoshi Nakamoto? A Bayesian Investigation
The question "who is Satoshi Nakamoto?" has been answered a thousand times with varying degrees of certainty and approximately zero rigour. We decided to do the maths properly. Using Bayesian inference across twelve evidence categories and ten candidates, we quantified the uncertainty.
Who Paid the Military During Government Shutdowns? A Bayesian Investigation
Someone paid the military during government shutdowns. The troops got their paychecks. That much is documented. But who actually made it happen? We applied Bayesian inference to constitutional procedure, appropriations law, and the bureaucratic machinery to quantify who deserves credit—or responsibility.