@Polymarket

Who Is This Person?

Polymarket is an American cryptocurrency-based prediction market platform launched in 2020 and headquartered in Manhattan, New York City. Founded by Shayne Coplan, it enables users to trade shares on outcomes of real-world events such as elections, economic indicators, and awards using USDC on the Polygon blockchain. The platform has grown significantly, blocking U.S. users since a 2022 CFTC settlement but expanding globally. In June 2025, it became X's (formerly Twitter) official prediction market partner, driving record $1.1 billion trading volume in May 2025. Recent activities include live dashboards for events like the NYC Mayoral Election, high-volume markets exceeding $300 million, and emphasis on accurate, unbiased forecasts amid over $18 billion in cumulative volume as of late 2025.

The @Polymarket account is a credible source for real-time prediction market insights and probabilistic event forecasts, supported by transparent blockchain data, high trading volumes, and partnerships like with X. Its market-driven model fosters accuracy over opinion, but regulatory history and bias claims warrant caution. Engagement rates (high views/favorites) reflect influence in niche communities, with consistent professional tone across platforms; overall reliable for data but interpretive for broader claims.

Assessment by Grok AI

What's Their Track Record?

Polymarket demonstrates high historical accuracy in predictions, with nearly perfect calibration in markets like elections (e.g., over $300 million in NYC Mayoral volume). No major fact-check failures on core claims, but faced a 2022 CFTC fine of $1.4 million for unregistered operations, leading to U.S. restrictions. Occasional corrections, such as terminating a third-party affiliate account in September 2025 amid controversy. Tweets promote platform integrity, with no widespread debunkings, though early criticisms labeled it as biased propaganda due to contrarian odds.