Not Credible

Post by @KimDotcom

0% credible. The post's prediction of the political collapse of Zelenskyy and Western leaders is entirely speculative and unsupported by evidence, reflecting significant anti-Western bias. Recent diplomatic efforts and continued support for Ukraine by these leaders contradict the claim, highlighting severe omission framing and unwarranted prediction fallacies.

Factual claims accuracy

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Presentation quality

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Analysis Summary

Kim Dotcom's post predicts the imminent political collapse of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, alongside European leaders like Ursula von der Leyen, Emmanuel Macron, Friedrich Merz, and Keir Starmer, as well as the EU and NATO. This claim is speculative and unsupported by evidence, reflecting the author's anti-Western bias rather than factual analysis. Opposing views from recent news highlight ongoing diplomatic support for Zelenskyy, including joint meetings with these leaders and U.S. President Trump to bolster Ukraine's position.

Original Content

Factual

Emotive

Opinion

Prediction

The fall of Zelenskyy is near. He will be joined by: Ursula von der Leyen Emmanuel Macron Friedrich Merz Keir Starmer The EU NATO

The Facts

The post presents an unsubstantiated prediction without evidence from current events, which show continued European backing for Ukraine despite challenges. Verdict: Speculative Opinion - Low Accuracy

Benefit of the Doubt

The author advances a pro-Russia, anti-Western agenda by forecasting the collapse of Zelenskyy and pro-Ukraine leaders to promote multipolarity and undermine NATO/EU credibility. It emphasizes dramatic downfall while omitting key context like recent White House summits where these leaders united to support Zelenskyy against Russian aggression, and ignores domestic political strengths or diplomatic successes. This selective framing shapes perception as inevitable Western failure, fostering disillusionment without balanced perspectives on Ukraine's resilience or counter-narratives of European unity.

Predictions Made

Claims about future events that can be verified later

Prediction 1

15%

Confidence

The fall of Zelenskyy is near.

Prior: 20% (base rate for sudden political collapse of a wartime leader is low given historical resilience). Evidence: Sources like The Economist (Nov 2024) note power struggles and election talks, but recent news (e.g., Washington Post, Mar 2025) shows united support in summits; no verified fall as of Nov 2025. Credibility: High from reputable outlets, countering speculation. Posterior: 15%.

Prediction 2

Confidence

He will be joined by: Ursula von der Leyen Emmanuel Macron Friedrich Merz Keir Starmer The EU NATO

Prior: 10% (very low base rate for simultaneous collapse of multiple Western leaders and alliances amid ongoing geopolitical tensions). Evidence: Web sources (e.g., Carnegie Endowment, Jan 2025) discuss Ukrainian elections but affirm European backing; X posts reflect speculative sentiment from pro-Russia accounts like Kim Dotcom, but countered by news of joint diplomatic efforts (Washington Post, Mar 2025). Credibility: Speculative posts low, news high. Posterior: 5%.

How Is This Framed?

Biases, omissions, and misleading presentation techniques detected

mediumurgency: artificial urgency

Presents a speculative political prediction as an imminent event to heighten alarm without any timeline or indicators.

Problematic phrases:

"The fall of Zelenskyy is near"

What's actually there:

No evidence of imminent fall; recent news shows diplomatic support

What's implied:

Collapse happening soon

Impact: Leads readers to perceive an immediate crisis, fostering panic and reduced trust in Western institutions despite ongoing stability.

highomission: missing context

Omits recent diplomatic efforts and support for Zelenskyy, framing the prediction in isolation to suggest inevitability.

Problematic phrases:

"He will be joined by: Ursula von der Leyen, Emmanuel Macron, Friedrich Merz, Keir Starmer, The EU, NATO"

What's actually there:

Recent White House summit with these leaders supporting Ukraine

What's implied:

Unified collapse without counter-support

Impact: Distorts perception by excluding evidence of European unity and resilience, making Western failure seem predestined.

highomission: unreported counter evidence

Ignores factual counterpoints like continued NATO/EU backing for Ukraine, selectively presenting only the downfall narrative.

Problematic phrases:

"The EU, NATO"

What's actually there:

Ongoing summits and aid commitments in 2024

What's implied:

Imminent dissolution

Impact: Misleads readers into believing institutions are collapsing, undermining awareness of their active role against Russian aggression.

mediumcausal: implied relationships

Implies a causal chain where Zelenskyy's fall triggers others' without evidence of interconnected reasons.

Problematic phrases:

"He will be joined by"

What's actually there:

No substantiated links; leaders face separate domestic issues

What's implied:

Coordinated, inevitable group downfall

Impact: Creates false narrative of a domino effect, exaggerating interconnected vulnerabilities to amplify anti-Western sentiment.

mediumsequence: false pattern

Groups isolated political figures and entities into a single 'fall' pattern, presenting disparate situations as a trend.

Problematic phrases:

"He will be joined by: [list]"

What's actually there:

Merz is opposition leader, not facing fall; Starmer recently elected with strong mandate

What's implied:

All in sequence of collapse

Impact: Falsely suggests a mounting wave of failures, leading readers to overestimate systemic Western decline.

Sources & References

External sources consulted for this analysis

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/trump-europe-military-defense-ukraine-putin-merz-macron-nato-zelenskyy-rcna193992

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https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cev28rvzlv1t

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https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/12/world/europe/europe-starmer-macron-merz.html

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https://news-pravda.com/world/2025/08/26/1632049.html

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https://www.dw.com/en/us-ukraine-europe-trump-zelenskyy-talks-eu/a-73683920

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https://asiatimes.com/2025/03/europes-dangerous-delusion-of-defense-without-the-us/

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https://www.npr.org/2025/03/01/g-s1-51506/european-leaders-react-to-zelenskyy-oval-office

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https://news-pravda.com/world/2025/08/26/1632049.html

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https://euperspectives.eu/2025/08/von-der-leyen-macron-and-merz-among-european-leaders-to-join-zelenskyy-for-trump-talks/

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https://news-pravda.com/world/2025/08/26/1632038.html

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https://deutsch.news-pravda.com/ukraine/2025/11/01/504680.html

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https://dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15008067/European-leaders-meet-Trump-White-House-Putin-Ukraine.html

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https://news.sky.com/story/key-takeaways-from-white-house-talks-between-trump-zelenskyy-and-eu-leaders-13414380

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https://spiegel.de/politik/friedrich-merz-und-ursula-von-der-leyen-bei-treffen-von-donald-trump-und-wolodymyr-selenskyj-dabei-a-ada55392-fe17-45be-b381-bc7b8ab1d398

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https://x.com/KimDotcom/status/1542228350919659520

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https://x.com/KimDotcom/status/1804674520504299568

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https://x.com/KimDotcom/status/1783269441620553993

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https://x.com/KimDotcom/status/1593154131459702784

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https://x.com/KimDotcom/status/1594780069352067072

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https://x.com/KimDotcom/status/1641455015171862531