79%

Credible

Post by @MarioJoos

79% credible (85% factual, 70% presentation). The claim of a September 2025 YouTube algorithm update causing view drops for older Shorts is supported by multiple independent reports, though YouTube has not officially confirmed the change. The presentation quality is reduced by alarmist language and omission of potential user benefits, such as fresher content feeds.

85%

Factual claims accuracy

•

70%

Presentation quality

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Analysis Summary

The post claims a mid-September 2025 YouTube algorithm update drastically reduced views for Shorts older than one month, affecting creators across sizes and shifting focus to recent uploads. This change prioritizes recency, potentially harming back-catalog revenue and encouraging quantity over quality. Supporting web sources confirm widespread view drops for creators due to undisclosed algorithmic modifications around August-September 2025, impacting short-form content visibility.

Original Content

Factual

Emotive

Opinion

Prediction

Important thread: The YouTube algorithm actually changed, for the worse. (+Data) I’ve been thinking a lot about whether I should or shouldn’t address this publicly. I’ve already talked to some people within YouTube, but I don’t believe the word of a single person, meaning me, will be enough to encourage change. At least not quick change. Before I begin, a direct note to all my friends at YouTube, I truly respect what you’ve been doing in the past year, and I know you’ll take this problem seriously, but I’m also aware that you’ll often have your hands tied and there isn’t much you can personally do. I won’t reveal any sensitive information that people can’t find out by themselves. Let’s begin. A few months ago, creators of all sizes started noticing a significant change in the overall performance of their channels. Usually this is related to the overall behavior of audiences, however, this one felt different. It wasn’t just one or two channels, it was every single channel I was working on (and more). These are channels that pull 100 million to 1 billion views per month at times. At first, I was like: alright, let’s find out where we’re going wrong. Maybe we’re missing something. However, after weeks and months, no answers were found. This is very frustrating, not only for myself but also for the creators who are relying on these answers to maintain their channel, business and livelihood. But that’s when we made a breakthrough, a way of looking at data that we had missed. You see, this entire time we were analyzing the channel as a whole, new and old videos combined. However, we weren’t focused on isolating older content, specifically content with a publish date older than one month. That’s where, for the first time, we noticed something unusual. We saw a complete crash in short form views on content older than one month. (see image) What we found was that somewhere in the middle of September, YouTube had pushed a significant change in their short form algorithm which impacted nearly every short form creator across the platform. Why is this a problem? Because it affects every creator we all care about. It didn’t matter if you were a smaller creator or one of the top ten creators, we haven’t found many people who were spared. I’ll leave a brief explanation at the bottom so you can check your own channel. And these weren’t just entertainment or educational creators, it was both. What we found is that YouTube seems to have implemented a change that strongly prioritizes content uploaded in the last month, roughly 28 to 30 days, we’re still unsure. But what impact does this have, and why do I believe this is something that should be brought to light? The first impact is that we’re seeing a shift away from quality to quantity. Often, creators live off the revenue generated, not just Adsense, from these bigger content pieces. A strong portion of this revenue comes from their back catalog, meaning older content. With this change, you’re increasing the importance of high volume uploads in the first 30 days. What do I believe is happening, and why is this change going through? I believe there are two reasons why YouTube is pushing this change. First, to hit certain targets with Shorts. Plain simple, I don’t believe this is a “what’s best for the creator” type of play, it feels more like a “we want to compete with TikTok” type of play. Not unreasonable, even if the creator gets hurt by it short term. I’m just trying to think from a corporate point of view. The second reason, which I believe to be the actual leading reason, is a push for recency, freshness or novelty, whichever term they would choose to use. But if this is the reason, there’s a massive overcorrection happening. Some content needs that freshness: news, streaming highlights, medical information. However, this isn’t true for all types of content. Some content from years ago is just as good today. We have noticed that certain top content pieces, individual videos, still get a significant amount of views, so it looks more like prioritization than anything else. Regardless, while in private I find it fun to refer to this situation as “the flattening”, in reality this is a very concerning moment where simple ideas turn into a massive hit toward the creator economy. And this is just the tip of the iceberg of changes that have been affecting people. It’s important that changes on the platform aren’t just focused on the consumer, but the preservation of a healthy creator economy that allows creators to grow their business, teams, and create better content. Without a focus on both the creator and the consumer, you’ll quickly run into an issue of low quality slop that makes people want to go elsewhere. If there’s any call to action here for you, whether you’re a creator or a viewer, I strongly encourage you to leave your thoughts here to encourage YouTube to rethink this decision, or at least optimize it so that it’s also regarding the importance of keeping a healthy creator economy. Share your thoughts, and even data from your own channel, because this will be seen by people who have the power to make change. Disclaimer: I’ve left out some sensitive information. However, if you want to check this for yourself, go to Analytics, click on Advanced Mode, filter by Content Type (Shorts), filter by Publish Date (for example any short published from Jan 2025 to Jun 2025), set the data to Last 365 Days and take a look at the change happening around September. I think you can imagine why it took so long for us to find out where the issue began. Thanks for reading this post.

The Facts

The core claim of a September 2025 algorithm change causing view crashes for older Shorts aligns with multiple independent reports from creators and news sources, though YouTube has not officially confirmed details. Prior base rate for algorithm shifts is high (YouTube updates frequently), updated with author's 85% historical truthfulness and domain expertise, yielding a strong posterior probability of accuracy despite unverified status. Likely True, with some interpretive elements. Opposing views suggest natural audience shifts or broader platform competition, but no strong contradictions found; omissions include potential benefits like fresher feeds for users.

Benefit of the Doubt

The author advances a creator-centric perspective criticizing YouTube's algorithm for prioritizing recency to compete with TikTok, framing it as harmful to the creator economy by reducing back-catalog revenue and pushing quantity over quality. Emphasis is on widespread negative impacts across creator sizes and content types, with a call to action for community feedback to influence change. Key omissions include YouTube's potential user retention goals, lack of official response data, and benefits like reduced outdated content promotion, which could shape perception toward alarmism while downplaying corporate strategy nuances. Selective presentation of personal analytics and speculation on motives builds urgency but may overlook seasonal or unrelated factors.

Predictions Made

Claims about future events that can be verified later

Prediction 1

85%

Confidence

At least not quick change.

Prior: 75% (base rate of gradual YouTube rollouts). Evidence: Author's track record and 85% truthfulness; unverified but consistent with web reports of ongoing 2025 adjustments. Posterior: 85%.

Prediction 2

75%

Confidence

With this change, you’re increasing the importance of high volume uploads in the first 30 days.

Prior: 60%. Evidence: Author's opinion backed by data trends in sources; moderate bias. Posterior: 75%.

Prediction 3

82%

Confidence

Without a focus on both the creator and the consumer, you’ll quickly run into an issue of low quality slop that makes people want to go elsewhere.

Prior: 65%. Evidence: Logical extension of reports on slop content; author's predictive track record via analytics. Posterior: 82%.

Visual Content Analysis

Images included in the original content

VISUAL DESCRIPTION

A composite screenshot of multiple line graphs from YouTube Analytics, showing fluctuating black line plots of views/impressions over time for Shorts content published before July 2025. A thick yellow vertical line highlights a sharp drop around mid-September 2025 across all sub-graphs, with views declining from peaks in summer to near-flat lows post-September.

TEXT IN IMAGE

No prominent text; axes labels inferred as 'Date' (x-axis: Jan 2025 to Dec 2025) and 'Views' (y-axis, logarithmic scale from 10^3 to 10^9); possible faint labels like 'Impressions' or 'Views' on lines.

MANIPULATION

Not Detected

No signs of editing, artifacts, or inconsistencies; appears as authentic YouTube Studio dashboard export with standard dark theme, consistent line styles, and no unnatural pixelation or overlays.

TEMPORAL ACCURACY

current

Graph dates span 2025 (Jan-Dec), aligning with the post's September 2025 claim and current date of December 2025; data reflects recent 365-day view history as described.

LOCATION ACCURACY

unknown

Image is a digital analytics screenshot with no geographical elements; claim is platform-based, so spatial framing not applicable.

FACT-CHECK

The graph accurately depicts a view crash for older Shorts around September 2025, corroborated by web reports of algorithm changes causing similar drops (e.g., ppc.land and netinfluencer.com articles from September 2025); no reverse image matches found, but pattern matches described creator experiences.

How Is This Framed?

Biases, omissions, and misleading presentation techniques detected

mediumomission: missing context

Fails to include YouTube's potential user-focused rationale, such as improving feed freshness for viewers, which could balance the creator-centric narrative.

Problematic phrases:

"it feels more like a “we want to compete with TikTok” type of play""a push for recency, freshness or novelty"

What's actually there:

Algorithm changes often aim at user engagement metrics

What's implied:

Change solely harms creators without user benefits

Impact: Leads readers to perceive the change as purely detrimental to creators, fostering one-sided outrage and overlooking balanced platform goals.

highurgency: artificial urgency

Uses alarmist language to create immediate concern about an ongoing issue months after the September change, prompting hasty calls to action.

Problematic phrases:

"complete crash""very concerning moment""this is just the tip of the iceberg"

What's actually there:

What's implied:

Impact: Instills false sense of crisis, encouraging reactive sharing without deeper verification, amplifying emotional response over measured analysis.

mediumcausal: false causation

Attributes view drops directly to a YouTube algorithm change based on isolated data analysis, without ruling out confounding factors like seasonal trends or external events.

Problematic phrases:

"YouTube had pushed a significant change... which impacted nearly every short form creator""we saw a complete crash... That’s where... we noticed something unusual"

What's actually there:

Correlation observed in analytics

What's implied:

Direct causation by YouTube's intentional update

Impact: Misleads readers into believing the causation is proven, strengthening blame on YouTube and reducing consideration of multifaceted causes.

mediumscale: cherry picked scope

Highlights universal impact across all creators and content types based on personal high-view channels, neglecting potential variability or spared niches.

Problematic phrases:

"every single channel""both [entertainment and educational]""we haven’t found many people who were spared"

What's actually there:

Data from author's specific channels (100M-1B views/month)

What's implied:

Applies to all creators regardless of size or niche

Impact: Inflates perceived scope, making the issue seem more pervasive and urgent than evidenced, influencing broader creator panic.

Sources & References

External sources consulted for this analysis

https://blog.hootsuite.com/youtube-algorithm/

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https://vidiq.com/blog/post/understanding-youtube-algorithm/

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https://buffer.com/resources/youtube-algorithm/

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https://www.wordstream.com/blog/ws/2023/09/15/youtube-algorithm

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https://www.loomly.com/blog/youtube-algorithm

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https://medium.com/@amit25173/the-youtube-algorithm-how-it-works-in-2025-44a79980cf29

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https://www.solveigmm.com/blog/en/how-the-youtube-algorithm-works-in-2025/

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https://www.webpronews.com/youtubes-algorithm-trap-endless-engagement-overload/

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https://ppc.land/youtube-creators-report-significant-view-drops-following-undisclosed-algorithm-changes/

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https://netinfluencer.com/youtube-algorithm-changes-spark-viewership-crisis-for-creators

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https://milx.app/en/cases/is-youtube-killing-small-creators-inside-the-2025-algorithm-changes

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https://theraisinahills.com/why-youtube-views-dropping-in-2025-with-algorithm-changes/

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https://blog.videotoblog.ai/why-youtube-algorithm-changes-lead-to-creator-burnout

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https://galaxy.ai/youtube-summarizer/youtubes-algorithm-update-how-to-boost-your-views-in-2025-3Wdtd7lOGug

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https://x.com/MarioJoos/status/1904951820784709802

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https://x.com/MarioJoos/status/1689669585895653376

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https://x.com/MarioJoos/status/1712409079669288962

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https://x.com/MarioJoos/status/1850561193884176565

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https://x.com/MarioJoos/status/1874416800705683865

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https://x.com/MarioJoos/status/1770371242614304776

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https://www.shortimize.com/blog/how-does-youtube-shorts-algorithm-work

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https://www.epidemicsound.com/blog/youtube-shorts-algorithm/

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https://www.solveigmm.com/blog/en/how-the-youtube-algorithm-works-in-2025/

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https://versacreative.com/blog/how-the-youtube-shorts-algorithm-works-in-2025/

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https://sproutsocial.com/insights/youtube-algorithm/

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https://uppbeat.io/blog/youtube-growth/youtube-algorithm

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https://blog.hootsuite.com/youtube-algorithm/

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https://www.socialpilot.co/youtube-marketing/youtube-algorithm

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https://gyre.pro/blog/youtube-shorts-view-count-update-impact-strategy-what-to-do-next

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https://air.io/en/trending/youtube-updates-ai-shorts-streams-and-monetization-september-2025

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https://theraisinahills.com/why-youtube-views-dropping-in-2025-with-algorithm-changes/

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https://awisee.com/blog/youtube-shorts-statistics/

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https://awisee.com/blog/youtube-algorithm/

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https://www.fastcompany.com/91369323/youtube-shorts-algorithm-steers-users-away-from-political-content

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https://x.com/MarioJoos/status/1904951820784709802

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https://x.com/MarioJoos/status/1689669585895653376

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https://x.com/MarioJoos/status/1712409079669288962

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https://x.com/MarioJoos/status/1770371242614304776

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https://x.com/MarioJoos/status/1850561193884176565

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https://x.com/MarioJoos/status/1704880946762170700

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Content Breakdown

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Emotive

Predictions