Post by @DKThomp
90% credible (95% factual, 77% presentation). The post accurately depicts a divergence between stock market performance and job openings since 2022, supported by data from FRED. However, the presentation is penalized for sensational framing and omission of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes as a primary cause of the job market decline.
Analysis Summary
The post highlights a chart showing an unprecedented split between rising stock market performance and declining job openings since 2022, breaking from historical patterns where the two moved in tandem. The main finding is that stocks have surged 75% while job listings dropped 33%, raising concerns about economic signals. This divergence is presented as potentially alarming, prompting analysis in the author's newsletter.
Original Content
The Facts
The claims align with verifiable economic data from sources like FRED, showing the described divergence post-2022 due to factors like Federal Reserve policies and market dynamics, though the 'scariest chart' framing is interpretive. Verdict: Mostly True – accurate on trends but sensationalized for emphasis.
Benefit of the Doubt
The author advances a perspective of economic unease by framing the data as a 'scariest chart,' emphasizing the unusual decoupling to draw attention to potential labor market weakness amid stock gains, possibly to critique broader economic narratives. Key insight: Omits detailed explanations like monetary policy tightening by the Fed as the primary driver of job opening declines, rather than attributing it solely to the 2022 timeline. This selective presentation shapes reader perception toward viewing the economy as precarious, focusing on alarm without balancing with ongoing low unemployment rates or sector-specific recoveries.
Visual Content Analysis
Images included in the original content
VISUAL DESCRIPTION
A line chart from FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) plotting two indices normalized to November 2022=100: the S&P 500 in blue, showing a sharp upward trend from 2022 onward reaching around 180 by 2025, and Job Openings: Total Nonfarm in green, peaking around 2022 and then declining to about 60 by 2025. The x-axis spans monthly data from January 2016 to May 2025, with a vertical line at November 2022 marking the normalization point.
TEXT IN IMAGE
FRED S&P 500, 2022-11-01=100 Job Openings: Total Nonfarm, Nov 2022=100 Index 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 2016-01 2017-01 2018-01 2019-01 2020-01 2021-01 2022-01 2023-01 2024-01 2025-01
MANIPULATION
No signs of editing, inconsistencies, or artifacts; the chart appears to be a standard, unaltered export from the official FRED database with consistent scaling and labeling.
TEMPORAL ACCURACY
The chart includes data up to mid-2025, aligning with the current date of November 2025, and the normalization at November 2022 matches the post's timeframe; no outdated elements evident.
LOCATION ACCURACY
The image depicts national U.S. economic data (S&P 500 and nonfarm job openings), with no specific locations claimed or shown, making spatial verification inapplicable.
FACT-CHECK
The chart accurately reflects official FRED data: S&P 500 has risen approximately 75% since November 2022, while job openings have fallen about 33%, verifying the post's claims without misleading scales or axes – both lines use the same index base for fair comparison.
How Is This Framed?
Biases, omissions, and misleading presentation techniques detected
Omits explanation of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes as primary cause of job opening declines and counter-evidence like persistently low unemployment rates, presenting divergence as inherently alarming without nuance.
Problematic phrases:
"that link snapped""Scariest Chart in the World"What's actually there:
Unemployment ~4% in 2024; job openings decline tied to monetary tightening post-2022
What's implied:
Broad labor market collapse amid stock gains
Impact: Leads readers to overestimate economic instability and underappreciate policy-driven normalization, fostering undue pessimism.
Sensational labeling creates false sense of immediate crisis from an ongoing trend analysis.
Problematic phrases:
"latest candidate for Scariest Chart in the World"What's actually there:
What's implied:
Impact: Amplifies perceived threat level, prompting reactive fear rather than measured economic evaluation.
Selects dramatic percentage changes (75% up, 33% down) without specifying baselines (e.g., S&P 500 vs. JOLTS data) or comparing to other metrics like GDP growth.
Problematic phrases:
"Stocks are up 75% and job listings down 33%"What's actually there:
Trends verifiable via FRED but isolated from wage growth or hiring rates
What's implied:
Extreme, unbalanced divergence signaling recession
Impact: Exaggerates magnitude of disconnect, ignoring that absolute job levels remain high historically.
Sources & References
External sources consulted for this analysis
https://www.usbank.com/investing/financial-perspectives/market-news/effect-of-job-market-on-the-economy.html
https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2023/article/job-openings-reach-record-highs-in-2022-as-the-labor-market-recovery-continues.htm
https://fortune.com/2025/10/31/chatgpt-job-openings-stock-market-sp500-scariest-chart-world-derek-thompson-monetary-policy/
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/stock-market
https://www.derekthompson.org/p/is-this-the-new-scariest-chart-in
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1Nuob
https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/stock-market-update-open
https://biztoc.com/x/8a771a0f699b44ee
https://www.derekthompson.org/p/is-this-the-new-scariest-chart-in
https://zeenews.india.com/photos/business/ai-boom-job-doom-chatgpt-sparks-stock-market-rally-but-millions-risk-losing-jobs-2978926
https://fortune.com/2025/10/31/chatgpt-job-openings-stock-market-sp500-scariest-chart-world-derek-thompson-monetary-policy/
https://brendonbeebe.substack.com/p/fascinating-divergence-chatgpt-release
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/job-openings-hit-highest-level-since-november-2024-144025969.html
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chart-day-falling-job-openings-222936674.html
https://x.com/DKThomp/status/1981344837992378536
https://x.com/DKThomp/status/1677308976126361607
https://x.com/DKThomp/status/1616498498379337728
https://x.com/DKThomp/status/1489594327592542216
https://x.com/DKThomp/status/1919740263771037714
https://x.com/DKThomp/status/1894748944015450123
https://fortune.com/2025/10/31/chatgpt-job-openings-stock-market-sp500-scariest-chart-world-derek-thompson-monetary-policy/
https://wiserinvestor.com/the-unemployment-rate-vs-sp-500-what-20-years-of-data-reveals/
https://www.usbank.com/investing/financial-perspectives/market-news/effect-of-job-market-on-the-economy.html
https://www.edwardjones.com/us-en/market-news-insights/stock-market-news/stock-market-weekly-update
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/stock-market
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1Nuob
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1HOoi
https://benzinga.com/markets/tech/25/11/48578552/jobs-down-33-stocks-up-75-expert-blames-fed-policy-not-ai-as-scariest-chart-in-the-world-sparks-inte
https://fortune.com/2025/10/31/chatgpt-job-openings-stock-market-sp500-scariest-chart-world-derek-thompson-monetary-policy/
https://www.derekthompson.org/p/is-this-the-new-scariest-chart-in
https://biztoc.com/x/1f578ceb46f70481
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-falling-job-openings-sp500-spx-red-flags-2023-9
https://www.ig.com/au/news-and-trade-ideas/Wall-Street-update-US-stocks-end-green-on-robust-earnings-as-attention-turns-to-in-limbo-labour-market-data-251103
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/us-stock-market-november-2025-forecast-will-wall-streets-strongest-month-of-the-year-deliver-another-surprise-rally-or-is-a-hidden-risk-waiting-to-spoil-the-bullish-party-3-big-shifts-to-note/articleshow/125015032.cms
https://x.com/DKThomp/status/1981344837992378536
https://x.com/DKThomp/status/1894748944015450123
https://x.com/DKThomp/status/1677308976126361607
https://x.com/DKThomp/status/1919740263771037714
https://x.com/DKThomp/status/1489594327592542216
https://x.com/DKThomp/status/1942655275388817442
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