Post by @investingluc
86% credible (90% factual, 78% presentation). The post accurately details SoftBank's divestment from NVIDIA in 2019 and 2025, with stock performance data aligning with reports from Reuters, CNBC, and Bloomberg. However, the presentation suffers from omission framing, selectively omitting broader market concerns like AI bubble fears, and the bullish prediction for NVIDIA's future performance remains opinion-based without guaranteed outcome.
Analysis Summary
The post highlights SoftBank's history of selling its NVIDIA stake, first in 2019 at around $4 per share and again in 2025, arguing that NVIDIA's stock performance remained strong post-2019 and will likely do so again. The claim is largely factual, supported by historical and recent events, though it omits broader market concerns like AI bubble fears triggered by the 2025 sale. Accompanying images from articles confirm the 2019 sale details and its opportunity cost.
Original Content
The Facts
The post accurately recounts SoftBank's 2019 sale of its NVIDIA stake for about $3.8 billion (realizing $2.6 billion profit) when shares were around $4 adjusted, and its full divestment in October 2025 for $5.83 billion, with NVIDIA's stock surging 4,500% post-2019 despite the sale. Mostly Accurate, as details align with reports from Reuters, CNBC, and Bloomberg, though the 2025 stock price at sale was around $140 (not specified) and the post's bullish prediction is opinion-based without guaranteed outcome.
Benefit of the Doubt
The author advances a bullish perspective on NVIDIA, emphasizing historical resilience to SoftBank's sales to reassure investors and promote optimism amid recent market jitters. Key omissions include the 2025 sale's immediate negative impacts, such as NVIDIA shares slipping 2-3%, SoftBank's stock plunging 10%, and analyst warnings of an AI investment bubble from sources like Reuters and Jim Chanos. This selective framing downplays risks like overvaluation debates and SoftBank's shift to OpenAI bets, shaping perception toward continued NVIDIA growth while ignoring counterarguments on unsustainable AI spending.
Visual Content Analysis
Images included in the original content
VISUAL DESCRIPTION
A screenshot of an article excerpt with purple-highlighted text detailing SoftBank Vision Fund's early investment in NVIDIA, including a $4 billion stake in 2017 sold in 2019, and noting ongoing business ties; the text is overlaid on a plain background.
TEXT IN IMAGE
SoftBank’s Vision Fund was an early backer of Nvidia, reportedly amassing a $4 billion stake in 2017 before selling all of its holdings in January 2019. Despite its latest sale, SoftBank’s business interests remain heavily intertwined with Nvidia’s.
MANIPULATION
No signs of editing, inconsistencies, or artifacts; appears to be a straightforward screenshot of a news article.
TEMPORAL ACCURACY
The content references events from 2017-2019, predating the post's 2025 context, but is used historically; no current date indicators in the image.
LOCATION ACCURACY
No specific locations mentioned or depicted; focuses on corporate events without geographical clues.
FACT-CHECK
Accurate representation of historical facts; confirmed by reports like those from The Guardian and CNBC on SoftBank's 2017-2019 NVIDIA involvement, though the $4 billion stake figure aligns with estimates but varies slightly in sources (e.g., 4.9% stake valued at ~$3.8B at sale).
VISUAL DESCRIPTION
A screenshot of another article excerpt with green and purple highlights on key phrases about the 2019 sale, profit realized, potential value if held, and Masayoshi Son's quote; text is on a white background with emphasis on financial figures and the quote.
TEXT IN IMAGE
This is not the first time SoftBank has divested its Nvidia holdings. Back in 2019, SoftBank’s Vision Fund sold its entire 4.9 percent stake in Nvidia for $3.8bn making a $2.6bn profit. If the company had maintained its stake, it would be worth $21bn. At the time, SoftBank founder Masayoshi Son called Nvidia “the fish that got away.”
MANIPULATION
No evidence of manipulation; clean text extraction with consistent formatting typical of news screenshots.
TEMPORAL ACCURACY
Details pertain to 2019 events, with $21bn valuation likely calculated as of the article's publication (pre-2025); relevant to historical context but not current 2025 sale.
LOCATION ACCURACY
No locations depicted or claimed; purely financial and corporate narrative.
FACT-CHECK
Factual and verifiable; matches reports from Bloomberg and Reuters on the 4.9% stake sale for $3.8B ($2.6B profit), and Son's 'fish that got away' quote from 2019 interviews; $21B hypothetical value aligns with NVIDIA's growth by early 2020s, though exact figure depends on timing.
How Is This Framed?
Biases, omissions, and misleading presentation techniques detected
The post presents a selectively positive historical narrative to imply NVDA's resilience to sales, while omitting recent negative market reactions and broader concerns like AI bubble risks, creating an unbalanced view.
Problematic phrases:
"$NVDA didn't care the first time SoftBank sold (ran 4,500% over next 6 years)...and don't think it will care this time either."What's actually there:
NVDA shares slipped 2-3% post-2025 sale, SoftBank stock plunged 10%, analysts (e.g., Jim Chanos) warn of AI investment bubble per Reuters/CNBC
What's implied:
Sales have no negative impact on NVDA performance
Impact: Leads readers to dismiss current risks and adopt unwarranted optimism, underestimating potential downturns due to changed market dynamics.
Fails to report counter-evidence such as immediate stock dips and analyst warnings following the 2025 sale, which contradict the implied non-impact.
Problematic phrases:
"Fast forward to 2025...SoftBank sells its entire $NVDA stake *again*."What's actually there:
2025 sale triggered 2-3% NVDA drop and 10% SoftBank decline, with reports of shifting investments to OpenAI and overvaluation debates from Bloomberg/Reuters
What's implied:
Similar to 2019, sale will not affect NVDA
Impact: Misleads by suppressing evidence of short-term volatility and long-term risks, fostering false security in NVDA's trajectory.
Portrays two SoftBank sales (2019 and 2025) as a recurring pattern that NVDA consistently ignores, treating isolated events as a reliable trend despite limited instances.
Problematic phrases:
"sold its entire $NVDA stake...sells its entire $NVDA stake *again*"What's actually there:
Only two sales over 6+ years, with 2025 context differing (e.g., AI boom vs. early growth phase)
What's implied:
Pattern of sales without consequence
Impact: Encourages perception of predictability in stock reactions, potentially leading to overconfidence in ignoring institutional selling signals.
Emphasizes the massive 4,500% gain post-2019 while cherry-picking a low share price ($4) for dramatic effect, neglecting current high valuations (~$140 in 2025) that amplify risk.
Problematic phrases:
"when the stock was roughly $4/share...ran 4,500% over next 6 years"What's actually there:
2019 adjusted price ~$4, but 2025 sale at ~$140 with market cap >$3T and P/E ratios signaling overvaluation concerns
What's implied:
Similar percentage gains possible from current levels
Impact: Distorts scale of potential future gains by anchoring to outdated low base, misleading on realistic growth expectations amid bubble fears.
Sources & References
External sources consulted for this analysis
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/nov/11/softbank-sells-stake-in-nvidia-as-it-doubles-down-on-openai-bets
https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/softbanks-58-billion-nvidia-stake-sale-stirs-fresh-ai-bubble-fears-2025-11-11/
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/11/softbank-sells-its-entire-stake-in-nvidia-for-5point83-billion.html
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/softbank-unloads-nvidia-stake-5-065809827.html
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45884937
https://www.investopedia.com/softbank-says-it-sold-its-nvidia-stake-the-chip-stock-is-sliding-11847319
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/12/softbank-shares-plunge-as-much-as-10percent-after-selling-nvidia-stake.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/12/softbank-shares-plunge-as-much-as-10percent-after-selling-nvidia-stake.html
https://www.dagens.com/business/softbank-sells-its-5-8-billion-nvidia-stake-raising-fears-of-an-ai-bubble
https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/markets/2025/11/12/manus-on-markets-softbank-dumps-entire-58bn-nvidia-stake/
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-12/softbank-s-shares-dive-after-nvidia-sale-spooks-ai-wary-market
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/technology/tech-news/softbank-does-exactly-what-nvidia-ceo-jensen-huang-had-made-fun-of-founder-masayoshi-son/articleshow/125246071.cms
https://www.livemint.com/market/stock-market-news/softbank-stock-price-tanks-10-after-selling-nvidia-stake-worth-5-8-billion-11762915916758.html
https://www.fastcompany.com/91439719/softbank-nvidia-openai-masayoshi-son-chips
https://x.com/investingluc/status/1983198550776332673
https://x.com/investingluc/status/1983513446537699646
https://x.com/investingluc/status/1883960499362238467
https://x.com/investingluc/status/1977894771550011807
https://x.com/investingluc/status/1977528350597079329
https://x.com/investingluc/status/1985040458586972465
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/11/softbank-sells-its-entire-stake-in-nvidia-for-5point83-billion.html
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/softbank-unloads-nvidia-stake-5-065809827.html
https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/softbanks-58-billion-nvidia-stake-sale-stirs-fresh-ai-bubble-fears-2025-11-11/
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/11/business/dealbook/softbank-nvidia-divest.html
https://fortune.com/2025/11/11/softbank-nvidia-openai-masayoshi-son-sam-altman-investment/
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/nov/11/softbank-sells-stake-in-nvidia-as-it-doubles-down-on-openai-bets
https://techcrunch.com/2025/11/11/softbanks-nvidia-sale-rattles-market-raises-questions/
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/12/softbank-shares-plunge-as-much-as-10percent-after-selling-nvidia-stake.html
https://www.dagens.com/business/softbank-sells-its-5-8-billion-nvidia-stake-raising-fears-of-an-ai-bubble
https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/markets/2025/11/12/manus-on-markets-softbank-dumps-entire-58bn-nvidia-stake/
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-12/softbank-s-shares-dive-after-nvidia-sale-spooks-ai-wary-market
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/technology/tech-news/softbank-does-exactly-what-nvidia-ceo-jensen-huang-had-made-fun-of-founder-masayoshi-son/articleshow/125246071.cms
https://www.livemint.com/market/stock-market-news/softbank-stock-price-tanks-10-after-selling-nvidia-stake-worth-5-8-billion-11762915916758.html
https://www.fastcompany.com/91439719/softbank-nvidia-openai-masayoshi-son-chips
https://x.com/investingluc/status/1983513446537699646
https://x.com/investingluc/status/1977894771550011807
https://x.com/investingluc/status/1983198550776332673
https://x.com/investingluc/status/1974980496871575783
https://x.com/investingluc/status/1977528350597079329
https://x.com/investingluc/status/1974938648987459604
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