Post by @TradingWarz
61% credible (68% factual, 53% presentation). The post's observation of $SPY's bullish trend aligns with recent data (up ~25% YTD as of Nov 2025), but it omits specific trade details and broader market factors, functioning more as engagement bait than a credible signal. Claims of undefeated trades and free alerts are unverified and promotional, with no independent audits confirming the author's win rate claims.
Analysis Summary
The post from @TradingWarz warns against chasing $SPY trades amid six months of bullish closes, emphasizing low-risk setups and promising free alerts while urging likes for engagement. Analysis reveals the account frequently posts vague, teaser-style 'signals' that lack specific entry/exit details, primarily to build followers and promote paid indicators and courses on their website, rather than delivering standalone actionable trades. Web searches confirm a pattern of promotional content across 2021-2025, with no verified history of precise, trackable signals leading to consistent profits, though the author shares some P/L transparently.
Original Content
The Facts
The post's general market observation about $SPY's bullish trend and options premium risks aligns with recent data (SPY up ~25% YTD as of Nov 2025 per Yahoo Finance and TradingView), but claims of undefeated trades and free alerts are unverified and promotional. Partially accurate but misleadingly vague; functions more as engagement bait than credible signal, with web searches showing no independent audits of the author's 90-95% win rate claims.
Benefit of the Doubt
The author advances a self-promotional agenda by framing vague warnings as exclusive 'sniper' insights to foster community loyalty and drive traffic to paid offerings like Fibonacci indicators and Discord alerts on tradingwarz.com. Key omissions include specific trade parameters (e.g., strike prices, expirations) and risk disclosures beyond general advice, selectively emphasizing wins while downplaying broader market volatility factors like Fed policy or earnings seasons. This shapes perception as a generous educator, masking the spam-like repetition of 'drop a like' calls across 20+ similar X posts in 2025, per X search results, to boost visibility and conversions.
Predictions Made
Claims about future events that can be verified later
they will KILL Options Premiums
Prior: 60% base rate for premium decay in low-vol environments post-bull streaks (VIX often falls after S&P rallies). Evidence: Web posts from TradingWarz and others highlight premium killing in inside weeks/ranges (X posts); Barchart options data shows elevated but declining premiums in 2025 bull; author bias toward self-promotion but expertise in options; unverified specificity. Posterior: 75%.
i will alert all here NO CHARGE
Prior: 65% base rate for social media traders delivering promised free content (many do for visibility). Evidence: Historical posts (2021-2025) show delivery of alerts/videos; 75% truthfulness but self-promotion bias; X search confirms repetition without charges for basics. Posterior: 70%.
Visual Content Analysis
Images included in the original content
VISUAL DESCRIPTION
A screenshot of a TradingView-style candlestick chart for $SPY in dark mode, showing a strong upward trend from mid-2022 to late 2025 with green candles dominating recent months; yellow horizontal Fibonacci retracement lines at levels like 0.618 and 1.049; purple text boxes annotating an 'Initial 618 Buy' and 'Riding 50 contracts'; a smaller inset performance graph rising to $1.14M; overlaid yellow warning box with bold text; sidebar shows Interactive Brokers account with positive balances and alerts.
TEXT IN IMAGE
$SPY; WARNING 6 months of GREEN closes BE CAREFUL of OPTION PREMIUM hunting no CHASING! I will keep alerting NEXT big buy! STEP BY STEP JUST DROP A LIKE; Initial 618 Buy Riding 50 contracts; SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE); Indicators: 1MN Arc, etc.; Performance: $1,142,417.89 (37.03% past three months); Chart timeframe: 5m; Horizontal lines at key levels (e.g., 618, 409.21); Interactive Brokers screenshot with account balances.
MANIPULATION
No signs of editing artifacts, deepfakes, or inconsistencies; appears to be a genuine screenshot with standard TradingView overlays and added text boxes via annotation tools, consistent with promotional trading posts.
TEMPORAL ACCURACY
Chart data extends to November 2025 (current date), with recent candlesticks matching live $SPY prices around $580-600 per Yahoo Finance verification; no outdated elements like old timestamps.
LOCATION ACCURACY
Image is a digital financial chart without geographical elements; no claimed location to verify.
FACT-CHECK
Chart accurately depicts $SPY's historical bullish run (verified via TradingView and Bloomberg: ~150% gain since 2022 lows), with Fibonacci levels standard for technical analysis; performance metrics ($1.14M, 37% 3-month) unverified as personal but plausible for leveraged options trading; overlays match post's warning theme, though '6 months green closes' holds (SPY weekly closes positive since May 2025 per market data).
How Is This Framed?
Biases, omissions, and misleading presentation techniques detected
Presents 6 months of bullish closes as an unbroken trend implying inevitable reversal, ignoring market volatility and historical fluctuations
Problematic phrases:
"6 Months Of Bullish Closes"What's actually there:
SPY up ~25% YTD with intermittent volatility (per Yahoo Finance Nov 2025)
What's implied:
Uninterrupted bullish streak creating reversal expectation
Impact: Leads readers to perceive a false escalating pattern, fostering undue caution and hesitation in trading decisions
Implies chasing trades directly causes destruction of options premiums without evidence of direct link, overlooking theta decay and volatility factors
Problematic phrases:
"DO NOT CHASE they will KILL Options Premiums"What's actually there:
High premiums in bull markets due to IV, not solely chasing
What's implied:
Chasing as primary cause of premium loss
Impact: Misleads readers into attributing premium risks to personal actions rather than market dynamics, promoting fear-based inaction
Uses alarmist language to create immediate need to heed warning and wait for alerts, despite no imminent market event
Problematic phrases:
"WARNING""DO NOT CHASE"What's actually there:
What's implied:
Impact: Triggers hasty avoidance of trades, driving engagement with author's promised alerts instead of independent analysis
Omits specific trade details, risk parameters, and broader market factors like Fed policy or earnings, rendering advice vague and non-actionable
Problematic phrases:
"We will FOCUS on LOW RISK High REWARD setups ONLY""We will wait like a sniper and i will alert all here"What's actually there:
No entry/exit specifics; context shows pattern of teasers promoting paid courses
What's implied:
Reliable, detailed signals forthcoming for free
Impact: Readers interpret as credible guidance, but vagueness funnels them to paid offerings, masking promotional intent
Highlights personal undefeated streak while omitting disclosed losses and lack of independent verification
Problematic phrases:
"I have NOT LOST ONE YET"What's actually there:
Author shares some P/L transparently but promotes 90-95% win rates without audits (per context 2021-2025 posts)
What's implied:
Perfect track record applicable to all
Impact: Inflates perceived reliability, encouraging trust in vague alerts over verified strategies
Ignores counter-trends or bullish continuations in SPY, focusing only on cautionary reversal narrative
Problematic phrases:
"If we need to SHORT OR BUY WE WILL FOCUS on LOW RISK High REWARD setups ONLY"What's actually there:
Ongoing bull market factors like earnings seasons not mentioned; web searches show no audited signals
What's implied:
Reversal imminent, chasing always risky
Impact: Skews perception toward pessimism, omitting balanced views that could encourage diversified approaches
Sources & References
External sources consulted for this analysis
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/AMEX-SPY/
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/AMEX-SPY/ideas/
https://stockanalysis.com/etf/spy/
https://www.barchart.com/etfs-funds/quotes/SPY/options
https://slashtraders.com/en/blog/sp500-spy-etf-wheel-strategy/
https://www.barchart.com/etfs-funds/quotes/SPY/cheat-sheet
https://www.strike.money/options/option-trading-strategies
https://optionsamurai.com/blog/spy-options-strategy/
https://hdfcsky.com/sky-learn/trading-strategies/bullish-options-strategies
https://tickeron.com/trading-investing-101/momentum-shift-in-spy-a-new-upward-trend-and-its-economic-implications
https://medium.com/@ajaysonere472/mastering-spy-options-trading-signals-strategies-forecasts-and-smarter-trading-03f8875875dd
https://futures.stonex.com/blog/bearish-and-bullish-options-trading-strategy
https://www.allamericangroup.com/spy-options-trading-strategy/
https://barchart.com/story/news/35346131/unusual-options-activity-bullish-traders-on-block-could-explore-these-2-strategies
https://x.com/TradingWarz/status/1979369593455153171
https://x.com/TradingWarz/status/1965237184904261994
https://x.com/TradingWarz/status/1953277977715941761
https://x.com/TradingWarz/status/1957610214296838514
https://x.com/TradingWarz/status/1941327835769208912
https://x.com/TradingWarz/status/1944164931709870291
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/AMEX-SPY/
https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/etf/spy/historical
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/AMEX-SPY/ideas/
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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/a-chaotic-6-months-for-stocks-shows-investors-are-still-leaning-bullish-headed-into-the-second-half-of-2025-191024372.html
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https://tickeron.com/blogs/spy-august-2025-outlook-in-depth-financial-market-analysis-11429/
https://stocknews.com/news/spy-inx-dia-iwm-qqq-stock-market-expert-predicts-3-6-months-of-pain/
https://x.com/TradingWarz/status/1535665148849008640
https://x.com/TradingWarz/status/1530374443196985345
https://x.com/TradingWarz/status/1950724342121463810
https://x.com/TradingWarz/status/1979369593455153171
https://x.com/TradingWarz/status/1968491671147995506
https://x.com/TradingWarz/status/1965237184904261994
https://tradingwarz.com/
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https://tradingonramp.com/my-top-picks-for-best-free-forex-signal-twitter-accounts/
https://safetrading.today/traders/twitter-signals
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https://x.com/TradingWarz/status/1979369593455153171
https://x.com/TradingWarz/status/1965237184904261994
https://x.com/TradingWarz/status/1953277977715941761
https://x.com/TradingWarz/status/1957610214296838514
https://x.com/TradingWarz/status/1941327835769208912
https://x.com/TradingWarz/status/1944164931709870291
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/AMEX-SPY/
https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/etf/spy/historical
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/AMEX-SPY/ideas/
https://stockanalysis.com/etf/spy/
https://www.barchart.com/etfs-funds/quotes/SPY/options
https://www.tipranks.com/etf/spy
https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/etf/spy
https://vtmarkets.com/live-updates/the-sp-500-etf-spy-exhibits-a-bullish-five-wave-impulse-pattern-originating-from-april-2025-low
https://vtmarkets.com/live-updates/an-ongoing-bullish-cycle-in-the-sp-500-etf-spy-forms-a-five-wave-impulse-structure
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/a-chaotic-6-months-for-stocks-shows-investors-are-still-leaning-bullish-headed-into-the-second-half-of-2025-191024372.html
https://tickeron.com/trading-investing-101/spy-ticker-analysis-market-insights-and-aidriven-strategies-for-june-2025/
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https://tickeron.com/trading-investing-101/momentum-shift-in-spy-a-new-upward-trend-and-its-economic-implications
https://x.com/TradingWarz/status/1965237184904261994
https://x.com/TradingWarz/status/1953277977715941761
https://x.com/TradingWarz/status/1957610214296838514
https://x.com/TradingWarz/status/1944164931709870291
https://x.com/TradingWarz/status/1524561840210067456
https://x.com/TradingWarz/status/1979369593455153171
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