Post by @opinioncasino
76% credible (83% factual, 65% presentation). The factual claims regarding U.S. nickel composition and current melt values are accurate, supported by U.S. Mint data and commodity prices. However, the investment thesis is overly optimistic and incomplete, omitting critical risks such as the federal prohibition on melting coins for profit under 18 U.S.C. § 511 and ignoring practical barriers like storage costs.
Analysis Summary
The author describes purchasing $250,000 worth of U.S. nickels, equating to 5 million coins and 55,000 pounds, as a speculative investment anticipating future increases in melt value due to potential U.S. Mint composition changes and inflation. This thesis draws parallels to historical silver coin debasement but overlooks key risks like the illegality of melting coins and current sub-face-value melt prices. While the coin composition and current melt values are factually accurate, the strategy's viability remains highly uncertain without imminent policy shifts.
Original Content
The Facts
The post accurately describes U.S. nickel composition (75% copper, 25% nickel, 5 grams), current melt values (around $0.043–$0.047 per coin, or 90–95% of face value), and historical precedents like post-1964 silver coin appreciation, supported by U.S. Mint data and commodity prices. However, the investment thesis is speculative, assuming unconfirmed future debasement without evidence of imminent changes, and ignores practical barriers such as the federal prohibition on melting coins for profit under 18 U.S.C. § 511. Mostly factual but overly optimistic and incomplete.
Benefit of the Doubt
The author advances a contrarian, anti-establishment investment narrative portraying nickels as an undervalued 'deep value' asset subsidized by the government, emphasizing asymmetry and historical analogies to silver coins to appeal to skeptics of fiat currency and traditional markets. Key omissions include the illegality of melting U.S. coins, high storage and handling costs for 55,000 pounds of metal, and lack of evidence for predicted composition changes, which could render the 'melt value' inaccessible. This selective framing shapes perception by hyping potential upside while downplaying risks, potentially to entertain or promote a bold persona rather than provide balanced advice, aligning with the author's pattern of exaggerated anecdotes.
Predictions Made
Claims about future events that can be verified later
The old “real” nickels become the last batch of government-issued coins containing significant industrial metal.
Prior: 40% (low base for policy prediction). Evidence: Historical precedent but unverified future; author bias towards debasement narrative. Posterior: 50%.
When that happens, they’ll vanish from circulation overnight — just like the 90% silver coins did after 1964.
Prior: 50% (historical analogy strong but future uncertain). Evidence: Web confirms 1964 shift; no evidence for nickel repeat soon. Posterior: 60%.
It’s an asymmetrical bet that the U.S. Mint will eventually debase the coinage again, that metal scarcity and inflation will continue to erode the dollar, and that a bag of nickels will one day be worth more dead than alive.
Prior: 45% (speculative economic prediction). Evidence: Web shows surplus nickel market (web:2), countering scarcity; author bias inflates optimism. Posterior: 55%.
Best case? The melt value doubles, triples, or gets banned outright — which would make the existing supply finite and far more valuable to collectors and contrarians alike.
Prior: 30% (highly speculative). Evidence: No evidence for doubling; web shows stable/low prices (web:0); ignores legal risks. Posterior: 40%.
Visual Content Analysis
Images included in the original content
VISUAL DESCRIPTION
The image shows several stacked cardboard boxes labeled 'NICKELS' with '$100' in blue lettering indicating face value, alongside two rolls of nickels—one blue-wrapped labeled '$5 NICKELS' and one white-wrapped partially labeled—arranged on a white surface, suggesting a storage or display of bulk U.S. five-cent coins.
TEXT IN IMAGE
NICKELS $100 (repeated on multiple boxes); NICKELS $5 (on blue roll); LOOMS (partial on white roll, likely 'NICKELS $5' obscured)
MANIPULATION
No signs of editing, inconsistencies, or artifacts; the image appears to be a straightforward photograph of physical items with natural lighting and shadows.
TEMPORAL ACCURACY
The image aligns with the post's 2025 date, showing modern U.S. nickel packaging without outdated design elements like pre-2000s wrappers.
LOCATION ACCURACY
Depicts boxes and rolls from a 'local bank vault' as claimed, with standard U.S. bank-issued nickel packaging visible, no conflicting geographical clues.
FACT-CHECK
The image authentically shows bulk U.S. nickels in $100 boxes and $5 rolls, consistent with standard Mint and bank distribution; no reverse image search indicates prior use or fabrication, verifying it as evidence of physical possession.
How Is This Framed?
Biases, omissions, and misleading presentation techniques detected
Fails to mention the federal law prohibiting the melting of U.S. coins for profit (18 U.S.C. § 511), which directly undermines the ability to realize 'melt value' gains, presenting the investment as viable without this critical barrier.
Problematic phrases:
"the melt value of a modern nickel sits around $0.043 – $0.047... a bag of nickels will one day be worth more dead than alive.""The melt value doubles, triples, or gets banned outright"What's actually there:
Melting coins for profit is illegal, limiting access to melt value
What's implied:
Melt value can be easily realized for profit upon composition change
Impact: Misleads readers into believing melt value appreciation translates directly to accessible gains, inflating perceived upside and encouraging similar risky behavior without awareness of legal risks.
Omits high storage, handling, and security costs for 55,000 pounds of coins, as well as the current melt value being below face value (90-95%), which erodes the 'asymmetrical bet' narrative by introducing unmentioned ongoing expenses and no immediate value add.
Problematic phrases:
"55,000 pounds of American metal stacked in boxes... Worst case? I still have $250,000 in legal-tender coins..."What's actually there:
Storage costs for 55,000 lbs could exceed thousands annually; melt value < face value
What's implied:
Holding costs are negligible with full face value preservation
Impact: Downplays practical barriers, leading readers to underestimate total costs and overvalue the 'worst case' scenario as cost-free preservation of value.
Implies a direct causal link between potential future composition changes and overnight scarcity/appreciation of current nickels, akin to silver coins, without evidence that such changes are planned or would similarly affect non-precious metals.
Problematic phrases:
"So what happens when they finally do? The old “real” nickels become the last batch... they’ll vanish from circulation overnight — just like the 90% silver coins..."What's actually there:
No confirmed plans for nickel composition change; silver precedent involved precious metal shift
What's implied:
Inevitable policy shift will cause identical scarcity and value surge
Impact: Creates false sense of predictable causation, heightening perceived investment certainty and urgency without substantiation.
Uses phrases suggesting imminent transformation ('overnight', 'eventually do', 'vanish from circulation') to imply the opportunity window is closing soon, despite no evidence of near-term policy shifts.
Problematic phrases:
"they’ll vanish from circulation overnight""the U.S. Mint will eventually debase the coinage again"What's actually there:
Composition discussions ongoing for years without action
What's implied:
Change and scarcity imminent
Impact: Induces hasty decision-making by manufacturing a false sense of time pressure on a highly speculative, long-term bet.
Cherry-picks comparison to silver coins' 10-15x gains while neglecting that nickels' base metals (copper/nickel) have far lower intrinsic value and volatility, exaggerating potential returns relative to scale.
Problematic phrases:
"Those who held them saw a 10–15× nominal gain over the following decades as melt value outpaced inflation."What's actually there:
Silver is precious metal with high demand; copper/nickel industrial with current low prices
What's implied:
Nickels will achieve comparable multiples
Impact: Inflates perceived magnitude of opportunity by using an inapplicable high-return benchmark, skewing risk assessment.
Sources & References
External sources consulted for this analysis
https://www.usacoinbook.com/coin-melt-values/
https://www.ngccoin.com/price-guide/coin-melt-values.aspx
https://www.coinflation.com/
http://coinapps.com/nickel/us/calculator/
https://www.coinflation.com/coins/1942-1945-Silver-War-Nickel-Value.html
https://www.coinflation.com/silver_coin_values.html
https://learn.apmex.com/tools/junk-silver-calculator/
https://www.numismaticnews.net/archive/melt-values-over-face-for-coins
https://www.boldpreciousmetals.com/blogs/last-year-for-silver-nickels
https://coin-identifier.com/blog/coins-overview/1945-nickel-value
https://alansfactoryoutlet.com/infographics/the-metal-composition-of-american-coins-since-1783/
https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/u-s-coin-melt-values-calculator/
https://yesmamawinebar.com/the-buffalo-nickel-valued-at-601k-million-still-in-circulation
https://sinteredfilter.net/melting-point-of-nickel
https://x.com/opinioncasino/status/1972735813382271313
https://x.com/opinioncasino/status/1968990862324494504
https://x.com/opinioncasino/status/1970596692417225163
https://x.com/opinioncasino/status/1972743181554086169
https://x.com/opinioncasino/status/1966510125557948533
https://x.com/opinioncasino/status/1972739558073835676
https://www.coinflation.com/coins/1946-2007-Jefferson-Nickel-Value.html
http://coinapps.com/nickel/us/calculator/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nickel_(United_States_coin)
https://www.usacoinbook.com/coin-melt-values/
https://www.coinflation.com/
https://www.usacoinbook.com/coin-melt-values/silver/
https://www.ngccoin.com/price-guide/coin-melt-values.aspx
https://custommapposter.com/article/is-it-illegal-to-melt-u-s-coins/2673
https://miningweekly.com/article/nickel-market-forecast-to-be-in-209-000-t-surplus-in-2025-says-insg-2025-10-07
https://globenewswire.com/news-release/2025/10/15/3166862/0/en/Nickel-Market-Size-to-Cross-USD-84-49-Billion-by-2034.html
https://nasdaq.com/articles/nickel-price-update-q2-2025-review
https://stainless-steel-world.net/the-world-nickel-market-in-2025-a-growing-surplus-in-an-uncertain-global-landscape
https://discoveryalert.com.au/news/nickel-market-surplus-forecast-2025-price-impact
https://indexbox.io/blog/nickel-world-market-overview-2024-10
https://x.com/opinioncasino/status/1972735813382271313
https://x.com/opinioncasino/status/1970596692417225163
https://x.com/opinioncasino/status/1968990862324494504
https://x.com/opinioncasino/status/1972739558073835676
https://x.com/opinioncasino/status/1972743181554086169
https://x.com/opinioncasino/status/1970222266370646183
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