Post by @MichaelMOTTCM
63% credible (70% factual, 55% presentation). The claim of an imminent SoftBank gamma squeeze collapse is a speculative opinion based on technical analysis, supported by a chart showing a rapid stock price rally to 25,470 JPY and rising implied volatility. However, the presentation omits SoftBank's positive fundamentals, such as AI investments, resulting in biased framing that penalizes credibility.
Analysis Summary
The post by Michael J. Kramer predicts a dramatic 'blow up' in SoftBank's stock due to an ongoing gamma squeeze, describing it as unprecedentedly ridiculous. The attached chart shows SoftBank's stock price surging sharply in recent months, reaching around 25,470 JPY, alongside rising implied volatility indicating heightened market expectations of movement. This bearish forecast contrasts with potential bullish interpretations of the rally as sustained growth.
Original Content
The Facts
The claim is a speculative opinion based on technical analysis of options activity and stock price behavior, supported by the chart's depiction of a rapid rally but lacking concrete evidence of an inevitable collapse. Historical precedents like SoftBank's 2020 gamma squeeze involvement add context, though outcomes are uncertain due to market volatility. Verdict: Speculative and partially accurate as analysis, but not verifiable fact.
Benefit of the Doubt
The author advances a bearish agenda by highlighting downside risks in SoftBank's rally, framing it as a dangerous gamma squeeze to warn followers of potential epic unwinding. Emphasis is placed on the 'ridiculous' scale of the move to evoke urgency and fear, while omitting SoftBank's strong fundamentals, such as AI investments and Vision Fund performance, which could sustain the rally. This selective presentation shapes perception toward caution and short-selling opportunities, aligning with the author's consistent downside-focused commentary.
Predictions Made
Claims about future events that can be verified later
When this gamma squeeze blows up in SoftBank
Prior: 40%. Evidence: Web articles (e.g., Simply Wall St on 158% surge, FT on past squeezes) and X posts by author labeling it a gamma squeeze support possibility, bolstered by 78% author truthfulness and technical expertise, but bearish bias tempers weight; image shows price spike to 25,470 JPY and IV at 72.60, aligning with squeeze dynamics. Posterior: 65%.
Visual Content Analysis
Images included in the original content
VISUAL DESCRIPTION
A financial line chart displaying SoftBank Group (9984.T) stock price history from 2015 to 2025 on the left y-axis (JPY scale 0-28,000), with a prominent blue line showing volatile trends and a sharp upward spike in late 2024-2025 reaching ~25,470. The right y-axis shows implied volatility (IV) from 10 to 180, with recent values around 72.60. A vertical white line marks a specific point, and the x-axis spans years 2015-2027. Dark background with grid lines; no people, locations, or events depicted.
TEXT IN IMAGE
9984 ATM IV, REU, 30 Day Atm Im Call 72.60 2.97 (+4.27%) SOFTBANK GROUP.TYO Trade Price 25470 1590 (+6.6%) JPY; Z (left axis, price scale from 0 to 28,000); A (right axis, IV from 10.00 to 180.00); Dates: 2015 to 2027; Legend: Blue line for price, white for another series; LSE logo at bottom.
MANIPULATION
No signs of editing, inconsistencies, or artifacts; appears to be a standard screenshot from a legitimate trading platform like LSE, with consistent scaling and data presentation.
TEMPORAL ACCURACY
Chart dates extend to 2025-2027, aligning with the current date of 2025-10-28; recent price and IV values match real-time SoftBank stock data from web sources showing a rally in October 2025.
LOCATION ACCURACY
Image is a financial chart with no geographical elements or claimed locations; pertains to Tokyo Stock Exchange (TYO) but no spatial framing to verify.
FACT-CHECK
The chart accurately depicts SoftBank's historical and recent stock price volatility, including the 2025 surge, corroborated by web news on gamma squeezes and rallies (e.g., posts on X and articles from Reuters/TheStreet); IV rise is consistent with increased options activity, though the 'gamma squeeze' interpretation is analytical rather than proven.
How Is This Framed?
Biases, omissions, and misleading presentation techniques detected
Implies direct causation between the gamma squeeze and an inevitable 'blow up' without substantiating the link, presenting speculation as prediction.
Problematic phrases:
"When this gamma squeeze blows up"What's actually there:
Gamma squeezes can resolve variably; historical 2020 event involved volatility but not guaranteed collapse
What's implied:
Inevitable epic failure
Impact: Misleads readers into assuming causation and inevitability, increasing perceived risk of immediate downside without balanced evidence.
Fails to mention SoftBank's positive fundamentals (e.g., AI investments, Vision Fund), selectively presenting only the bearish gamma squeeze narrative.
What's actually there:
Strong AI-driven growth and rally context from chart
What's implied:
Unmitigated risk of blow up
Impact: Skews perception toward caution and potential short-selling, omitting factors that could sustain the rally and alter the 'ridiculous' interpretation.
Exaggerates the event's magnitude by claiming it's unprecedentedly 'ridiculous,' using personal anecdote without comparative data.
Problematic phrases:
"I have never seen something so ridiculous before"What's actually there:
Comparable to past squeezes like 2020, but speculative
What's implied:
Uniquely extreme and worse than all priors
Impact: Inflates perceived scale, making the squeeze seem more anomalous and dangerous than it may be, influencing overreaction.
Uses explosive language to create a sense of impending crisis, framing a speculative market event as an imminent 'epic' disaster.
Problematic phrases:
"blows up""it is going to be epic"What's actually there:
Ongoing rally with volatility, no fixed timeline for resolution
What's implied:
Immediate and catastrophic unwinding
Impact: Heightens fear and urgency, prompting hasty decisions like selling without considering market volatility's uncertainty.
Sources & References
External sources consulted for this analysis
https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/call-me-crazy-softbank-and-the-madness-in-the-options-market-20200906-p55su2
https://www.cmcmarkets.com/en-gb/trading-guides/gamma-squeeze
https://www.cmcmarkets.com/en/trading-guides/gamma-squeeze
https://www.ft.com/content/75587aa6-1f1f-4e9d-b334-3ff866753fa2
https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2020-09-07/softbank-nasdaq-tech-whale-doubts
https://spotgamma.com/softbank-call-options-gamma/
https://nationandstate.com/2020/10/02/softbank-is-back-with-gamma-squeeze-part-2/
https://www.thestreet.com/technology/palantirs-stock-price-surges-on-ai-news-gamma-squeeze
https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/understanding-gamma-squeeze
https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-softbank-group-buyout/softbanks-shares-jump-7-on-buyout-debate-report-idUKKBN28J0BY
https://investing.com/analysis/call-buying-and-gamma-squeeze-200541612
https://www.amnonfreepress.com/softbank-reconsidering-infamous-gamma-squeeze-option-strategy/
https://www.nationandstate.com/2021/03/25/sec-investigating-softbank-after-nasdaq-gamma-squeeze-foia-reveals/
https://www.warriortrading.com/gamma-squeeze/
https://x.com/MichaelMOTTCM/status/1976450254527709445
https://x.com/MichaelMOTTCM/status/1622395295999868928
https://x.com/MichaelMOTTCM/status/1649018172450779137
https://x.com/MichaelMOTTCM/status/1648290390330560517
https://x.com/MichaelMOTTCM/status/1648635600658939905
https://x.com/MichaelMOTTCM/status/1618738845641748480
https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2020-09-07/softbank-nasdaq-tech-whale-doubts
https://www.ft.com/content/75587aa6-1f1f-4e9d-b334-3ff866753fa2
https://simplywall.st/stocks/jp/telecom/tse-9984/softbank-group-shares/news/can-softbanks-158-stock-surge-in-2025-be-justified-by-its-ai
https://group.softbank/en/ir/financials/annual_reports/2025
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/SOFTBANK-CORP-54039112/news/Earnings-surge-propels-SoftBank-stock-to-new-heights-49245450/
https://site.financialmodelingprep.com/market-news/teslas-stock-surge-gamma-squeeze-or-fundamental-growth
https://www.cmcmarkets.com/en-gb/trading-guides/gamma-squeeze
https://simplywall.st/stocks/jp/telecom/tse-9984/softbank-group-shares/news/can-softbanks-158-stock-surge-in-2025-be-justified-by-its-ai
https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-09/softbank-shares-jump-13-as-bull-case-grows-with-abb-robot-deal
https://tekedia.com/softbank-posts-strong-q1-2025-profit-as-shares-hit-record-high-on-ai-investment-surge
https://marketscreener.com/quote/stock/SOFTBANK-CORP-54039112/news/Earnings-surge-propels-SoftBank-stock-to-new-heights-49245450
https://uk.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/nvidias-gamma-squeeze-stock-skyrockets-on-options-market-frenzy-3528502
https://www.cheddarflow.com/blog/gamma-squeeze-explained-by-professionals-2024/
https://investorplace.com/hypergrowthinvesting/2024/12/why-short-squeeze-stocks-may-be-2025s-hidden-gems
https://x.com/MichaelMOTTCM/status/1976450254527709445
https://x.com/MichaelMOTTCM/status/1855038568395424200
https://x.com/MichaelMOTTCM/status/1917547233529971194
https://x.com/MichaelMOTTCM/status/1932520498824687708
https://x.com/MichaelMOTTCM/status/1847394744046846060
https://x.com/MichaelMOTTCM/status/1980801243191918952
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