Post by @MichaelMOTTCM
48% credible (53% factual, 42% presentation). The post's technical analysis and charts accurately reflect SoftBank's recent stock volatility, but the prediction of an unprecedented gamma squeeze collapse is speculative and unproven. The presentation omits SoftBank's strong AI investments and historical resilience, introducing bias and framing violations that undermine the overall credibility.
Analysis Summary
The post warns of an impending dramatic collapse in SoftBank's stock due to a gamma squeeze, describing it as unprecedentedly ridiculous. The claim is a speculative bearish prediction based on technical analysis, supported by charts showing a sharp recent price surge. Opposing views highlight SoftBank's strong fundamentals and AI investments as potential stabilizers against a blow-up.
Original Content
The Facts
The statement is an opinion-based market prediction with no verifiable facts, relying on author's technical interpretation; charts accurately depict recent SoftBank price volatility but the 'blow-up' forecast is speculative and unproven. Partially accurate as analysis but verdict: speculative and biased toward downside.
Benefit of the Doubt
The author advances a bearish agenda by highlighting extreme risks in SoftBank's options-driven rally to warn followers of potential downside, framing it as an overblown bubble. Key omissions include SoftBank's robust AI portfolio and historical resilience, which counterarguments emphasize as mitigating factors against collapse. This selective focus on gamma squeeze mechanics shapes perception toward fear of volatility, ignoring broader market supports like institutional buying.
Predictions Made
Claims about future events that can be verified later
When this gamma squeeze blows up in SoftBank
Prior: 25% (base rate for specific stock blow-up predictions is low due to market unpredictability). Evidence: Web sources confirm past SoftBank involvement in options-driven rallies (e.g., 2020 Nasdaq whale reports) and general gamma squeeze mechanics; author credibility at 78% truthfulness with expertise in technical analysis strengthens likelihood, but unverified status and bearish bias weaken it; image charts verify recent volatility spike. Posterior: 45%.
it is going to be epic
Prior: 20% (low base rate for predictions of extreme market events). Evidence: Ties to claim 1; web results on gamma squeezes describe self-reinforcing cycles leading to volatility; author expertise relevant but speculative nature and bias reduce weight; image shows extreme recent surge supporting potential for dramatic unwind. Posterior: 35%.
Visual Content Analysis
Images included in the original content
VISUAL DESCRIPTION
Two overlaid line charts of SoftBank Group (TYO:9984) stock: the left shows implied volatility (IV) as a blue line with high volatility spikes, the right shows stock price as a black line with a dramatic upward spike from around 2024 to 2025 reaching over 25,000 JPY; time axis from 2015 to 2027, y-axes for IV (0-100%) and price (0-28,000 JPY); no people, locations, or events depicted, purely financial data visualization.
TEXT IN IMAGE
9984 ATM IV, 30 Day ATM Call 72.60 (2.47%) SOFTBANK GRP TYO Trade Price 25470 1590 (+6.68%) JPY; 9984 ATM IV, 30 Day ATM Call 72.60 (2.47%) SOFTBANK GRP TYO Trade Price 25470 1590 (+6.68%) JPY; Charts labeled with dates from 2015 to 2027, axes for price in JPY (0 to 28000), IV in percent (0 to 100), source LSEG
MANIPULATION
No signs of editing, inconsistencies, or artifacts; standard financial charting style from LSEG (London Stock Exchange Group) with consistent scales and data points.
TEMPORAL ACCURACY
Chart extends to 2025-2027 projections but recent data aligns with current date (2025-10-29), showing live price around 25,470 JPY matching recent SoftBank trading levels.
LOCATION ACCURACY
Image is a financial chart with no geographical elements or claimed locations; pertains to Tokyo Stock Exchange (TYO) but no spatial framing to verify.
FACT-CHECK
Charts accurately represent SoftBank's historical and recent stock price surge (up ~300% from April 2025 lows per web context) and IV levels; no misleading scales, though vertical axis starts at zero for clarity; verified via general knowledge of SoftBank's rally tied to AI investments.
How Is This Framed?
Biases, omissions, and misleading presentation techniques detected
Implies direct causation between gamma squeeze and a blow-up without substantiating evidence, presenting speculation as inevitable.
Problematic phrases:
"When this gamma squeeze blows up"What's actually there:
Gamma squeeze indicates options-driven volatility, not guaranteed collapse
What's implied:
Inevitable epic blow-up due to squeeze
Impact: Misleads readers into perceiving a certain causal link, heightening fear of immediate financial disaster.
Selectively omits SoftBank's strong AI investments and historical resilience, which could mitigate risks.
What's actually there:
Robust fundamentals and institutional support as stabilizers
What's implied:
Unmitigated vulnerability to squeeze
Impact: Skews perception toward collapse by excluding balancing factors, reinforcing one-sided bearish narrative.
Exaggerates immediacy and drama of the event to evoke panic, despite speculative nature.
Problematic phrases:
"it is going to be epic""blows up"What's actually there:
Market prediction with inherent uncertainty
What's implied:
Imminent and unprecedented catastrophe
Impact: Creates false sense of urgent action needed, prompting hasty decisions based on fear rather than analysis.
Portrays the situation as unprecedentedly ridiculous without contextualizing against broader market norms or SoftBank's scale.
Problematic phrases:
"I have never seen something so ridiculous before"What's actually there:
Options volatility common in large caps
What's implied:
Unique and extreme outlier event
Impact: Inflates perceived magnitude, making the risk seem larger than in typical market fluctuations.
Sources & References
External sources consulted for this analysis
https://www.cmcmarkets.com/en-gb/trading-guides/gamma-squeeze
https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/call-me-crazy-softbank-and-the-madness-in-the-options-market-20200906-p55su2
https://www.cmcmarkets.com/en/trading-guides/gamma-squeeze
https://www.ft.com/content/75587aa6-1f1f-4e9d-b334-3ff866753fa2
https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2020-09-07/softbank-nasdaq-tech-whale-doubts
https://spotgamma.com/softbank-call-options-gamma/
https://nationandstate.com/2020/10/02/softbank-is-back-with-gamma-squeeze-part-2/
https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/understanding-gamma-squeeze
https://www.thestreet.com/technology/palantirs-stock-price-surges-on-ai-news-gamma-squeeze
https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-softbank-group-buyout/softbanks-shares-jump-7-on-buyout-debate-report-idUKKBN28J0BY
https://investing.com/analysis/call-buying-and-gamma-squeeze-200541612
https://www.amnonfreepress.com/softbank-reconsidering-infamous-gamma-squeeze-option-strategy/
https://www.nationandstate.com/2021/03/25/sec-investigating-softbank-after-nasdaq-gamma-squeeze-foia-reveals/
https://www.warriortrading.com/gamma-squeeze/
https://x.com/MichaelMOTTCM/status/1976450254527709445
https://x.com/MichaelMOTTCM/status/1622395295999868928
https://x.com/MichaelMOTTCM/status/1649018172450779137
https://x.com/MichaelMOTTCM/status/1648290390330560517
https://x.com/MichaelMOTTCM/status/1648635600658939905
https://x.com/MichaelMOTTCM/status/1618738845641748480
https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/understanding-gamma-squeeze
https://www.cmcmarkets.com/en-gb/trading-guides/gamma-squeeze
https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2020-09-07/softbank-nasdaq-tech-whale-doubts
https://www.ft.com/content/75587aa6-1f1f-4e9d-b334-3ff866753fa2
https://support.spotgamma.com/hc/en-us/articles/31612163559955-What-is-a-Gamma-Squeeze
https://smartasset.com/investing/gamma-squeeze
https://www.bankrate.com/investing/what-is-a-gamma-squeeze/
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/softbank-tse-9434-valuation-recent-081237309.html
https://simplywall.st/stocks/jp/telecom/tse-9434/softbank-shares/news/softbank-tse9434-valuation-in-focus-as-investors-monitor-sus/amp
https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/understanding-gamma-squeeze
https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/analysis-with-amc-shares-skyhigh-gamma-squeeze-less-of-a-driving-force-2522960
https://www.warriortrading.com/gamma-squeeze/
https://www.benzinga.com/fintech/21/07/21991020/identifying-the-next-gamma-squeeze-with-spotgamma
https://themargins.substack.com/p/softbank-robinhood-and-a-margins
https://x.com/MichaelMOTTCM/status/1695206125979709825
https://x.com/MichaelMOTTCM/status/1598850560354287616
https://x.com/MichaelMOTTCM/status/1568025043229106176
https://x.com/MichaelMOTTCM/status/1649018172450779137
https://x.com/MichaelMOTTCM/status/1616133109442805769
https://x.com/MichaelMOTTCM/status/1655887394720161794
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