89%

Credible

Post by @josephpalbanese

89% credible (94% factual, 81% presentation). The personal anecdote about a $1300 Tesla investment growing to $98,266.50 aligns with verifiable stock performance data from 2013 to present, supported by an E*TRADE screenshot. However, the presentation quality is reduced by omission framing that attributes success primarily to belief in visionaries, neglecting other contributing factors.

94%

Factual claims accuracy

•

81%

Presentation quality

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Analysis Summary

A user shares a personal anecdote about convincing his father to invest $1300 in Tesla stock in 2013, which was forgotten until recently rediscovered worth $98,266.50, highlighting the power of long-term belief in visionary companies like Tesla. The story appears authentic, supported by an E*TRADE screenshot showing 225 TSLA shares purchased at $5.83 each. This rediscovery created a memorable father-son moment, emphasizing irrational conviction in founders as key to investment success.

Original Content

Factual

Emotive

Opinion

Prediction

wild story in 2013, i begged my dad to help me invest in wild story in 2013, i begged my dad to help me invest in @Tesla @Tesla and and @elonmusk @elonmusk . i had never seen a company, product, or more importantly a founder have such a clear vision of the future. i had $1300 saved up from odd jobs and a birthday. he told me he would take care of it and i handed over the cash — all my money at the time. decisively all-in. back then, investing in individual stocks wasn't as easy as it is today easy as it is today easy as it is today. . i had never seen a company, product, or more importantly a founder have such a clear vision of the future. i had $1300 saved up from odd jobs and a birthday. he told me he would take care of it and i handed over the cash — all my money at the time. decisively all-in. back then, investing in individual stocks wasn't as easy as it is today. @RobinhoodApp @RobinhoodApp had just launched and so my dad had to navigate the mess that it was. he created an account on had just launched and so my dad had to navigate the mess that it was. he created an account on @etrade @etrade to place the investment. a multi-step, weeks long effort. life went on - i became busy with other things and assumed it was taken care of. a few years later, i asked him about it and he was fuzzy on the detailsa few years later, i asked him about it and he was fuzzy on the detailsa few years later, i asked him about it and he was fuzzy on the details. he didn't use etrade for anything else and couldn't confidently remember placing the actual investmenthe didn't use etrade for anything else and couldn't confidently remember placing the actual investmenthe didn't use etrade for anything else and couldn't confidently remember placing the actual investment. Tesla and Elon were now house-hold namesTesla and Elon were now house-hold namesTesla and Elon were now house-hold names. it hilariously became family meme — we missed out on teslait hilariously became family meme — we missed out on teslait hilariously became family meme — we missed out on tesla. fast forward to a few weeks ago, i was telling my dad about to place the investment. a multi-step, weeks long effort. life went on - i became busy with other things and assumed it was taken care of. a few years later, i asked him about it and he was fuzzy on the details. he didn't use etrade for anything else and couldn't confidently remember placing the actual investment. Tesla and Elon were now house-hold names. it hilariously became family meme — we missed out on tesla. fafafast forward to a few weeks ago, i was telling my dad about $OPEN $OPEN . he decides to make an investment and goes to . he decides to make an investment and goes to @etrade @etrade to setup an account (!!). during account setup, he's told that he already has an account with them. it was created in 2013. when he figured out how to log in, the dashboard displays the portfolio with its only holding — to setup an account (!!). during account setup, he's told that he already has an account with them. it was created in 2013. when he figured out how to log in, the dashboard displays the portfolio with its only holding — @Tesla @Tesla . 225 shares purchased for $5.83.225 shares purchased for $5.83.225 shares purchased for $5.83. the total account value: $98,266.50the total account value: $98,266.50the total account value: $98,266.50 $1,300 → $98k.$1,300 → $98k.$1,300 → $98k. he face-timed me today to share the news.he face-timed me today to share the news.he face-timed me today to share the news. it was electric.it was electric.it was electric. one of the coolest father-son moments i can remember.one of the coolest father-son moments i can remember.one of the coolest father-son moments i can remember. it's like finding a $20 in an old pair of pants on steroids.it's like finding a $20 in an old pair of pants on steroids.it's like finding a $20 in an old pair of pants on steroids. but more importantly it goes to show that investing in products, companies, and founders you believe in irrationally with a long-term mindset is the ultimate alpha.investing in products, companies, and founders you believe in irrationally with a long-term mindset is the ultimate alpha.investing in products, companies, and founders you believe in irrationally with a long-term mindset is the ultimate alpha. my plan for the funds? forget about them for another 12 years.my plan for the funds? forget about them for another 12 years.my plan for the funds? forget about them for another 12 years. -- sidenote: yes, i moved him to . 225 shares purchased for $5.83. the total account value: $98,266.50 $1,300 → $98k. he face-timed me today to share the news. it was electric. one of the coolest father-son moments i can remember. it's like finding a $20 in an old pair of pants on steroids. but more importantly it goes to show that investing in products, companies, and founders you believe in irrationally with a long-term mindset is the ultimate alpha. my plan for the funds? forget about them for another 12 years. -- sidenote: yes, i moved him to @RobinhoodApp @RobinhoodApp cc cc @vladtenev @vladtenev

The Facts

The personal story aligns with verifiable Tesla stock performance from 2013 (around $5-6 per share split-adjusted) to current values near $436, yielding approximately 75x return on 225 shares, totaling ~$98k. Author credibility (85% truthfulness, no controversies) and the unedited E*TRADE screenshot provide strong evidence of authenticity, though as a self-reported anecdote, it lacks independent verification. Verdict: Highly likely true, with minor potential for exaggeration in emotional framing.

Benefit of the Doubt

The author advances a pro-investment narrative celebrating long-term faith in innovative founders like Elon Musk, using the emotional father-son rediscovery to inspire readers toward 'irrational' conviction in visionaries. Key omission: Risks of stock volatility, potential losses in similar investments, and the role of market luck over pure vision, which could mislead novices into overlooking diversified strategies. This selective, feel-good presentation shapes perception as motivational success porn, emphasizing serendipity and alpha from belief while downplaying broader market context or failures in Tesla's history.

Predictions Made

Claims about future events that can be verified later

Prediction 1

75%

Confidence

my plan for the funds? forget about them for another 12 years.

Prior: 60% (future plans changeable). Evidence: Consistent with opinion; credibility but bias toward holding. Posterior: 75%.

Prediction 2

88%

Confidence

my plan for the funds? forget about them for another 12 years.

Prior: 75% (personal plans often realized). Evidence: Expertise in tech/startups relevant; high credibility. Posterior: 88%.

Visual Content Analysis

Images included in the original content

VISUAL DESCRIPTION

Screenshot of an E*TRADE investment portfolio dashboard displaying a single open position in TSLA stock: 225 shares purchased on May 14, 2013, at $5.833 per share, with current value at $98,266.50, showing a total unrealized gain of $96,502.50 (7,365.64%). The interface includes tabs for positions, allocation, performance, and cash balance of $1,000.30, with a net account value of $98,266.80. No people, locations, or external events are depicted; it's a standard financial UI with purple and white color scheme.

TEXT IN IMAGE

MANIPULATION

Not Detected

No signs of editing, inconsistencies, or artifacts; the screenshot appears genuine with consistent fonts, UI elements matching E*TRADE's known design, and realistic financial data alignment.

TEMPORAL ACCURACY

current

The refresh timestamp is 'Oct 17 2025 01:29 PM ET', aligning with the post's recent context (a few weeks ago from current date 2025-10-19) and Tesla's 2025 stock performance around $436 per share.

LOCATION ACCURACY

matches_claim

The image depicts an online brokerage dashboard, which matches the claim of accessing an E*TRADE account; no physical location is claimed or shown, so it fits the digital context.

FACT-CHECK

The data corroborates the post: 225 TSLA shares at $5.833 total ~$1,312 initial investment (close to $1,300 claimed), current value ~$98k at $436.74/share matches 2025 Tesla pricing from web sources; purchase date 05/14/2013 is plausible for early investment, verified against historical TSLA prices (split-adjusted ~$5-6).

How Is This Framed?

Biases, omissions, and misleading presentation techniques detected

mediumomission: missing context

Presents investment success as primarily due to belief in visionaries, omitting discussion of market risks, volatility, diversification needs, and the role of luck in Tesla's performance.

Problematic phrases:

"investing in products, companies, and founders you believe in irrationally with a long-term mindset is the ultimate alpha."

"my plan for the funds? forget about them for another 12 years."

What's actually there:

Tesla stock experienced significant volatility (e.g., drops over 50% in 2018-2020) and not all visionary investments succeed; average long-term stock returns are ~7-10% annually, not 75x.

What's implied:

Belief alone guarantees massive returns without downside.

Impact: Leads readers to undervalue risks and over-rely on 'irrational' conviction, potentially encouraging undiversified, high-risk behavior.

lowsequence: single instance as trend

Uses one serendipitous rediscovery as evidence for a general investment principle, implying it's a repeatable pattern rather than an isolated lucky event.

Problematic phrases:

"it goes to show that..."

What's actually there:

One anecdotal success amid millions of forgotten or failed investments.

What's implied:

Such outcomes are typical for long-term holds in visionary companies.

Impact: Creates false perception of reliability in the strategy, encouraging similar all-in bets without considering broader failure rates.

lowscale: cherry picked scope

Highlights the 75x return on a small, specific investment while neglecting the denominator of overall market performance or comparable failures.

Problematic phrases:

"$1,300 → $98k."

What's actually there:

Tesla's return was exceptional; S&P 500 returned ~4x over same period, and many tech stocks (e.g., early EVs competitors) failed.

What's implied:

Similar scale returns are standard for believed-in companies.

Impact: Exaggerates the magnitude of success, making the strategy appear more scalable and low-risk than reality.

Sources & References

External sources consulted for this analysis

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cp982z3xrz7o

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https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/031316/elon-musks-5-best-investments-tsla-pypl.asp

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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk

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https://robinhood.com/us/en/stocks/TSLA/

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https://www.investopedia.com/elon-musk-net-worth-record-usd500-billion-11823006

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https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/

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https://www.investopedia.com/articles/personal-finance/061015/how-elon-musk-became-elon-musk.asp

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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/elon-musk-says-150k-investment-213114763.html

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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/elon-musk-interviews-vlad-tenev-on-clubhouse-150645102.html

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https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/technology/tech-news/daddy-is-very-much-home-says-ceo-elon-musk-after-buying-tesla-shares-worth-1-billion/articleshow/123916371.cms

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https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/24/elon-musk-26-billion-richer-after-tesla-stock-best-day-since-2013.html

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https://businessinsider.com/elon-musk-errol-musk-turned-down-free-tesla-cost-shipping-2023-9

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https://finance.yahoo.com/video/elon-musk-buys-1b-tesla-142923561.html

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https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/technology/tech-news/elon-musk-purchases-1-billion-in-tesla-stock-his-first-open-market-purchase-since-5-years/articleshow/123902740.cms

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https://x.com/josephpalbanese/status/1971373293002207476

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https://x.com/josephpalbanese/status/1329109701473181701

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https://x.com/josephpalbanese/status/1333849603658006528

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https://x.com/josephpalbanese/status/1501951224370716674

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https://x.com/josephpalbanese/status/1354213030087675906

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https://x.com/josephpalbanese/status/1979249800626552870