Post by @GvanOnselen
74% credible (82% factual, 66% presentation). The analysis accurately reports a decline in ANC support based on verified election data, aligning with reports from Al Jazeera and Reuters. However, the presentation suffers from sensational language and omission of specific quantitative data, which undermines the credibility of the 'exponential' claim.
Analysis Summary
Gareth van Onselen analyzes recent by-elections, highlighting a sharp decline in ANC support and increased competition from opposition parties. The ANC's vote is collapsing at an exponential rate, fracturing its base and sparking a feeding frenzy among rivals. This trend points to volatile political developments in the coming 14 months.
Original Content
The Facts
The assessment draws on verified election data showing consistent ANC declines in recent national, municipal, and by-elections, aligning with reports from sources like Al Jazeera and Reuters on the party's loss of majority in 2024. Counter-arguments from ANC supporters often deny the severity but lack data support, while omissions include specific turnout figures or regional variations that might temper the 'exponential' claim. Verdict: Likely Accurate
Benefit of the Doubt
The author advances an anti-ANC perspective, portraying the party as in irreversible decline to emphasize opportunities for opposition growth and political instability. Emphasis is placed on dramatic language like 'exponential collapse' and 'feeding frenzy' to evoke urgency and excitement, while omitting quantitative data from the by-elections (e.g., exact vote shares or comparisons to prior trends) and broader context like economic factors driving voter shifts, which shapes reader perception toward viewing the ANC's downfall as inevitable and opposition gains as opportunistic rather than substantive.
Predictions Made
Claims about future events that can be verified later
Going to be a wild next 14 months
Prior: 60% based on historical patterns of instability post-major election shifts in South Africa. Evidence: Aligns with author's analyses and recent data; expertise boosts confidence, though predictive nature and bias slightly weaken. Posterior: 80%.
How Is This Framed?
Biases, omissions, and misleading presentation techniques detected
By-elections are portrayed as evidence of an ongoing 'exponential' trend, using pattern language to suggest a continuous acceleration rather than isolated or linear declines.
Problematic phrases:
"collapsing at an exponential rate"What's actually there:
Consistent but not necessarily exponential declines in recent elections per IEC data
What's implied:
Rapidly accelerating nationwide collapse
Impact: Leads readers to overestimate the speed and inevitability of the ANC's decline, viewing by-elections as part of a larger, unstoppable wave.
'Exponential rate' exaggerates the magnitude by implying mathematical acceleration without comparative data from prior elections or turnout adjustments.
Problematic phrases:
"collapsing at an exponential rate"What's actually there:
ANC vote share dropped ~10-15% in recent by-elections vs. historical baselines (IEC reports)
What's implied:
Dramatic, compounding loss suggesting near-total collapse
Impact: Inflates perceived severity, making the decline seem more catastrophic and opposition gains more substantial than data supports.
Fracturing of ANC vote is directly linked to a 'feeding frenzy' among opponents without evidence that the decline is causing opportunistic splits rather than other factors like policy dissatisfaction.
Problematic phrases:
"as it fractures, there is a feeding frenzy"What's actually there:
Opposition gains in by-elections align with broader voter shifts (e.g., economic issues per Reuters), not solely ANC fracturing
What's implied:
Impact: Creates false causality, portraying opposition actions as predatory responses rather than independent voter preferences.
Forecast of 'wild next 14 months' injects immediacy into a prediction based on recent events, heightening drama without specifying risks or timelines.
Problematic phrases:
"Going to be a wild next 14 months"What's actually there:
14 months until potential 2026 local elections or national shifts
What's implied:
Imminent chaos
Impact: Prompts readers to feel anxious or excited about instability, overshadowing gradual political processes.
Fails to include quantitative by-election data (e.g., vote shares, turnout) or external factors like economic pressures, which could moderate the 'exponential' narrative.
Problematic phrases:
"yesterday’s by-elections make one thing clear"What's actually there:
Specific results show ANC losses but with low turnout (~20-30%) and regional variations (IEC data); economic factors like unemployment drive shifts (Al Jazeera reports)
What's implied:
Impact: Skews interpretation toward inevitable ANC downfall, ignoring nuances that might suggest recoverable declines or non-partisan voter motivations.
Omits ANC defenses or data showing resilience in core voter bases, presenting a one-sided decline without alternative views.
Problematic phrases:
"the ANC’s vote is collapsing"What's actually there:
ANC claims voter loyalty in rural areas; counter-reports from party statements lack data but highlight internal reforms
What's implied:
Impact: Reinforces anti-ANC bias, leading readers to dismiss potential stabilization efforts.
Sources & References
External sources consulted for this analysis
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/6/1/south-africa-anc-loses-30-year-parliamentary-majority-after-election
https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/voter-preferences-south-africa/
https://www.npr.org/2024/06/01/nx-s1-4987616/south-africa-election-results
https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2024/5/2/why-south-africas-opposition-may-struggle-to-unseat-the-ruling-anc
https://apnews.com/article/south-africa-election-vote-anc-d9da7582ca98a4e00fec2da6a5fe1e91
https://www.freiheit.org/liberal-workshop-south-africa/anc-loses-majority-after-30-years
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/African_National_Congress
https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2024/5/2/why-south-africas-opposition-may-struggle-to-unseat-the-ruling-anc
https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/anc-records-worst-poll-result-admits-safricans-disappointed-with-party-2021-11-04/
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/africa/south-africa-anc-vote-result-b2555036.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/30/south-africa-election-anc-set-to-lose-majority-in-pivotal-vote.html
https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/south-africas-ramaphosa-badly-weakened-by-anc-election-slump-2024-05-31/
https://jacobin.com/2024/05/south-africa-election-anc-ramaphosa
https://theconversation.com/south-africas-anc-dips-below-50-but-opposition-parties-fail-to-pick-up-the-slack-171253
https://x.com/GvanOnselen/status/1327514499679735808
https://x.com/GvanOnselen/status/1809860549380903040
https://x.com/GvanOnselen/status/1756579520906138046
https://x.com/GvanOnselen/status/1808417834839470556
https://x.com/GvanOnselen/status/1909866487327662293
https://x.com/GvanOnselen/status/1844280531275677771
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-africa-69076473
https://www.npr.org/2024/06/01/nx-s1-4987616/south-africa-election-results
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/6/1/south-africa-anc-loses-30-year-parliamentary-majority-after-election
https://www.freiheit.org/liberal-workshop-south-africa/anc-loses-majority-after-30-years
https://results.elections.org.za/home/
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/01/world/africa/south-africa-election-results.html
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/6/2/south-africa-elections-results-what-happens-next
https://taungdailynews.com/2025/10/16/people-reaffirm-their-confidence-as-anc-wins-by-elections
https://polity.org.za/article/anc-says-by-election-victories-affirm-its-growing-strength-of-renewal-2025-10-16
https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2025-10-16-pa-shocks-anc-in-soweto-and-swellendam-actionsa-notches-historic-ward-win-in-north-west/
https://citizen.co.za/news/south-africa/politics/actionsa-breaks-the-anc-stronghold-in-north-west
https://allafrica.com/stories/202510160234.html
https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/anc-records-worst-poll-result-admits-safricans-disappointed-with-party-2021-11-04/
https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/voter-preferences-south-africa/
https://x.com/GvanOnselen/status/1809860549380903040
https://x.com/GvanOnselen/status/1808417834839470556
https://x.com/GvanOnselen/status/1845911721560424678
https://x.com/GvanOnselen/status/1327514499679735808
https://x.com/GvanOnselen/status/1756579520906138046
https://x.com/GvanOnselen/status/1892284261022986344
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