Post by @FirstSquawk
82% credible (88% factual, 71% presentation). The claim accurately reflects UBS's reported 93% US recession probability from September 2025, corroborated by multiple sources. However, the presentation omits key details like the 12-month timeframe and UBS's caveats, resulting in sensational framing that penalizes credibility.
Analysis Summary
The post highlights a UBS report estimating a 93% probability of a US recession based on recent hard economic data. Main finding: This assessment stems from UBS's proprietary factor model analyzing indicators from May to July 2025, signaling elevated risks but not a definitive forecast. While multiple outlets corroborate the figure, it contrasts with varying probabilities from other models, suggesting caution in interpretation.
Original Content
The Facts
The claim accurately reflects UBS's reported analysis from September 2025, as covered by sources like Newsweek and Fortune, though it omits nuances such as the model's focus on 'hard data' and probabilistic nature. Verdict: Mostly Accurate – Sensational phrasing amplifies but does not fabricate the core statement.
Benefit of the Doubt
The post advances a alarmist perspective on US economic health to rapidly inform followers of potential downturns, typical of the account's breaking news style. It emphasizes the high 'staggering' probability to evoke urgency, while omitting critical context like the 12-month timeframe, UBS's caveat against forecasting an actual recession, and counter-evidence from softer data or differing bank models (e.g., Moody's at 48%), which could shape reader perception toward undue pessimism without balanced risks.
How Is This Framed?
Biases, omissions, and misleading presentation techniques detected
Presents a probabilistic model output as an immediate 'warning' to heighten perceived threat level.
Problematic phrases:
"UBS WARNS""NOW AT A STAGGERING 93%"What's actually there:
Probabilistic estimate from September 2025 report based on May-July 2025 data, not a definitive or immediate forecast
What's implied:
Imminent and near-certain recession
Impact: Creates false sense of immediate crisis, prompting reactive fear rather than measured response to economic risks.
Fails to include key details like the 12-month timeframe, UBS caveats on non-forecasting, and model's focus on 'hard data' only.
Problematic phrases:
"RECESSION PROBABILITY NOW AT A STAGGERING 93%"What's actually there:
93% probability over 12 months per UBS model, with explicit warnings against predicting actual recession
What's implied:
High chance of recession occurring soon without qualifiers
Impact: Leads readers to overestimate recession likelihood and immediacy, fostering undue economic pessimism.
Ignores contrasting assessments from other institutions, presenting UBS view in isolation.
Problematic phrases:
"STAGGERING 93%"What's actually there:
Moody's estimates 48% probability; softer data and other models show lower risks
What's implied:
Consensus on near-certain recession
Impact: Skews perception toward one-sided alarmism, neglecting broader economic context for balanced decision-making.
Highlights the highest probability figure from one model while omitting lower estimates, exaggerating overall risk magnitude.
Problematic phrases:
"A STAGGERING 93%"What's actually there:
Single model's output amid varying bank assessments (e.g., 48-60% from others)
What's implied:
Overwhelming evidence of extreme recession risk
Impact: Inflates perceived scale of threat, making the economic downturn seem more inevitable than indicated by full data.
Sources & References
External sources consulted for this analysis
https://www.newsweek.com/recession-probability-surges-93-ubs-2125230
https://fortune.com/2025/09/02/recession-probability-93-percent-hard-data-ubs-stable-elevated-economy/
https://unusualwhales.com/news/ubs-puts-the-recession-probability-at-93
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45264227
https://www.ubs.com/global/en/investment-bank/insights-and-data/2022/us-recession-probabilities.html
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/major-bank-issues-warning-93-193000113.html
https://www.tipranks.com/news/93-odds-of-recession-supported-by-hard-data-says-ubs
https://www.tradingview.com/news/forexlive:0b6a85f76094b:0-ubs-says-there-s-a-93-chance-of-a-recession-in-the-us-this-year/
https://www.ainvest.com/news/ubs-hard-data-shows-93-probability-recession-2509/
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ubs-gives-america-recession-checkup-162216945.html
https://crypto.news/ubs-recession-probability-in-the-u-s-is-93/
https://fortune.com/2025/09/02/recession-probability-93-percent-hard-data-ubs-stable-elevated-economy/
https://www.ainvest.com/news/ubs-warns-93-recession-risk-economy-slips-soggy-territory-2509/
https://www.tipranks.com/news/93-odds-of-recession-supported-by-hard-data-says-ubs
https://x.com/FirstSquawk/status/1971780214121550156
https://x.com/FirstSquawk/status/1972007353362141495
https://x.com/FirstSquawk/status/1967048549226738023
https://x.com/FirstSquawk/status/1969578505198584010
https://x.com/FirstSquawk/status/1974675866966954197
https://x.com/FirstSquawk/status/1579838774712102918
https://www.newsweek.com/recession-probability-surges-93-ubs-2125230
https://fortune.com/2025/09/02/recession-probability-93-percent-hard-data-ubs-stable-elevated-economy/
https://www.tipranks.com/news/93-odds-of-recession-supported-by-hard-data-says-ubs
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/major-bank-issues-warning-93-193000113.html
https://www.ubs.com/global/en/investment-bank/insights-and-data/2022/us-recession-probabilities.html
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ubs-gives-america-recession-checkup-162216945.html
https://crypto.news/ubs-recession-probability-in-the-u-s-is-93/
https://www.tradingview.com/news/forexlive:0b6a85f76094b:0-ubs-says-there-s-a-93-chance-of-a-recession-in-the-us-this-year/
https://www.ainvest.com/news/ubs-hard-data-shows-93-probability-recession-2509/
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ubs-gives-america-recession-checkup-162216945.html
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/recession-alert-ubs-puts-us-at-93-risk-as-economy-slips-into-soggy-territory/articleshow/123683417.cms
https://fortune.com/2025/09/02/recession-probability-93-percent-hard-data-ubs-stable-elevated-economy/
https://www.gurufocus.com/news/3094492/ubs-warns-of-high-recession-risk-in-the-us-economy-by-2025
https://www.tipranks.com/news/93-odds-of-recession-supported-by-hard-data-says-ubs
https://x.com/FirstSquawk/status/1972007353362141495
https://x.com/FirstSquawk/status/1971780214121550156
https://x.com/FirstSquawk/status/1967048549226738023
https://x.com/FirstSquawk/status/1969578505198584010
https://x.com/FirstSquawk/status/1974822225586065807
https://x.com/FirstSquawk/status/1974675866966954197
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