Post by @cremieuxrecueil
84% credible (88% factual, 73% presentation). The claim accurately reflects findings from a 2014 study on Swedish CEOs, showing positive correlations between firm size and CEO traits like cognitive ability, personality, and height. However, the presentation omits critical study limitations such as data age and potential selection biases in conscription data, impacting the overall credibility.
Analysis Summary
The content presents data from a study on Swedish CEOs, showing positive correlations between company size (logged total assets) and standardized scores in cognitive ability, noncognitive ability (personality traits), and height. The main finding is that larger Swedish firms are led by CEOs with above-average levels in these traits. This aligns with a 2014 research paper using historical conscript data, though it emphasizes correlations without addressing causation or broader generalizability.
Original Content
The Facts
The claim accurately reflects findings from a 2014 study on Swedish CEOs using conscript data, which found CEOs score higher on cognitive and noncognitive abilities and height compared to the population average, with stronger effects for larger firms. Counterarguments include potential selection biases in military conscription data and debates over whether these traits cause success or result from it, but no major factual inaccuracies are evident. Verdict: Mostly True
Benefit of the Doubt
The author advances a hereditarian perspective, highlighting biological and innate traits like intelligence and height as predictors of leadership success to support arguments favoring genetic influences over environmental or systemic factors. Key omission: The post does not discuss limitations such as the age of the data (from 1950s-1990s conscripts), potential cultural biases in Sweden, or alternative explanations like education and networking. This selective framing shapes perception toward viewing CEO success as merit-based on inherent qualities, downplaying socioeconomic influences and potentially fueling debates on inequality.
Visual Content Analysis
Images included in the original content
VISUAL DESCRIPTION
A scatter plot with logged total assets on the x-axis (ranging from 13 to 25) and mean trait value on the y-axis (from 0 to 1.5). It features three sets of points and regression lines: black squares for noncognitive ability, blue diamonds for cognitive ability, and gray triangles for height, showing positive slopes indicating increasing trait values with larger assets.
TEXT IN IMAGE
Noncognitive ability Cognitive ability Height Mean trait value Logged total assets 13 16 19 22 25
MANIPULATION
No signs of editing, inconsistencies, or artifacts; appears to be a standard academic-style plot generated from data analysis software.
TEMPORAL ACCURACY
The graph is based on data from a 2014 study using Swedish military conscript records primarily from the 1950s-1990s, making it historical rather than reflecting current (2025) CEO traits.
LOCATION ACCURACY
The data is explicitly from Swedish sources (conscript and company records), aligning with the claim about Sweden's biggest companies.
FACT-CHECK
The plot accurately represents findings from the 2014 paper 'Match Made at Birth? What Traits of a Million Swedes Tell Us about CEOs' by Adams et al., showing positive associations; no contradictions found in reverse image or study verification, though scales are standardized z-scores for comparability.
How Is This Framed?
Biases, omissions, and misleading presentation techniques detected
Old conscript data from mid-20th century is presented without temporal context, misleading readers into assuming current relevance.
Problematic phrases:
"The CEOs managing Sweden's biggest companies tend to be..."What's actually there:
Historical data over 30+ years old
What's implied:
Current or timeless trait distribution
Impact: Creates false impression of recency, making the findings seem applicable to today's CEOs and ignoring potential societal changes.
Correlations are framed to imply that inherent traits cause CEO selection, without substantiating causation over selection effects.
Problematic phrases:
"tend to be smarter, taller, and to have better personalities"What's actually there:
Positive correlations with company size
What's implied:
Traits directly lead to leading bigger companies
Impact: Misleads readers into believing success is primarily due to innate qualities, downplaying education, networks, or luck.
Fails to mention study limitations like data age, conscription biases, or alternative explanations (e.g., socioeconomic factors).
Problematic phrases:
"The CEOs managing Sweden's biggest companies tend to be..."What's actually there:
Correlations only, with potential biases in military data and no causation
What's implied:
Straightforward merit-based selection on traits
Impact: Shifts perception toward hereditarian meritocracy, omitting counter-evidence that could balance the interpretation and fuel inequality debates.
Ignores debates on whether traits result from success (reverse causation) or cultural specificity in Sweden.
Problematic phrases:
"smarter, taller, and to have better personalities"What's actually there:
Possible reverse causality or selection artifacts
What's implied:
Traits precede and cause CEO roles
Impact: Readers undervalue systemic factors, reinforcing biased views on leadership determinants.
Sources & References
External sources consulted for this analysis
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0191886916301696
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8569843/
https://neurolaunch.com/tall-personality/
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0160289614000920
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Five_personality_traits
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0160289612000220
https://infoproc.blogspot.com/2014/10/chief-executives-brainpower-personality.html
https://lionoftheblogosphere.wordpress.com/2014/10/12/ceos-of-big-corporations-only-have-iq-of-115-on-average/
https://www.aei.org/pethokoukis/want-ceo-big-company-really-smart-really-helps-also-tall/
https://mdpi.com/2624-8611/5/1/8
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s42001-025-00385-9
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12134-024-01188-z
https://sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0010440X98900700
https://www.crystalknows.com/resource/personality-breakdown-ceo/co-founder
https://x.com/cremieuxrecueil/status/1763281664418181604
https://x.com/cremieuxrecueil/status/1784985650225127906
https://x.com/cremieuxrecueil/status/1719842701229560092
https://x.com/cremieuxrecueil/status/1645697957205876736
https://x.com/cremieuxrecueil/status/1757484615701323919
https://x.com/cremieuxrecueil/status/1689720962466340866
https://infoproc.blogspot.com/2014/10/chief-executives-brainpower-personality.html
https://www.ecgi.global/working-paper/are-ceos-born-leaders-lessons-traits-million-individuals
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0929119923001736
https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2014/10/is-the-world-of-swedish-ceos-a-meritocracy.html
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0304405X1830182X?casa_token=e5CvgKEQI7cAAAAA:UURr1otb8GtXhwIK3MAZiwnlj-kUIHGd5N2DcaDTFM5TRDyjrgDOItMC-D1hKpfhBJt9CwDFsQ
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0304405X1830182X
https://www.hbs.edu/ris/Publication%20Files/16-044_9c05278e-9d11-4315-a744-de008edf4d80.pdf
https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2014/10/is-the-world-of-swedish-ceos-a-meritocracy.html
https://ecgi.global/working-paper/are-ceos-born-leaders-lessons-traits-million-individuals
https://www.aei.org/pethokoukis/want-ceo-big-company-really-smart-really-helps-also-tall/
https://lionoftheblogosphere.wordpress.com/2014/10/12/ceos-of-big-corporations-only-have-iq-of-115-on-average/
https://www.psypost.org/more-intelligent-individuals-earn-more-money-overall-but-this-is-not-the-case-among-very-high-and-very-low-earners/
https://www.businessinsider.com/are-successful-ceos-smart-or-lucky-2015-11
https://www.mdpi.com/2079-3200/6/2/26
https://x.com/cremieuxrecueil/status/1763281664418181604
https://x.com/cremieuxrecueil/status/1719842701229560092
https://x.com/cremieuxrecueil/status/1784985650225127906
https://x.com/cremieuxrecueil/status/1689720962466340866
https://x.com/cremieuxrecueil/status/1645697957205876736
https://x.com/cremieuxrecueil/status/1763312772408807823
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