Post by @ankurnagpal
90% credible (95% factual, 82% presentation). The quoted odds from Kalshi and Polymarket as of the post date confirm the arbitrage opportunity on Andrew Cuomo's NYC mayor prediction, supporting the claim's factual accuracy. However, the post omits critical details such as platform fees and liquidity constraints, which are essential for assessing the feasibility of the arbitrage.
Analysis Summary
The post highlights a potential arbitrage between Kalshi and Polymarket odds on Andrew Cuomo becoming NYC mayor, where buying 'Yes' on Kalshi at 6.3¢ and 'No' on Polymarket at 92¢ could yield a profit regardless of outcome. The images confirm the quoted prices, supporting the claim of a mispricing. However, such opportunities are fleeting and may involve platform fees or liquidity issues not mentioned.
Original Content
The Facts
The quoted odds match the provided screenshots from Kalshi and Polymarket as of the post date, confirming the arbitrage setup. Verdict: Accurate with minor caveats on execution risks like fees and market changes. Opposing views note that prediction markets can adjust rapidly, and true arbitrage requires simultaneous trades without slippage.
Benefit of the Doubt
The author advances a perspective of savvy personal finance by sharing a quick investment tip drawn from his expertise in markets, emphasizing easy gains to engage followers. Key omissions include transaction fees, withdrawal limits, tax implications, and the risk of odds shifting before trades execute, which could eliminate the profit. This selective framing shapes perception as low-risk 'free money,' potentially overlooking regulatory differences between platforms and user eligibility.
Predictions Made
Claims about future events that can be verified later
Bet on both and you win every single time
Prior: 40% (arbitrage predictions often fail due to execution risks; low base rate for guaranteed wins). Evidence: Images support mispricing (potential profit margin), author's expertise boosts likelihood, but bias toward optimistic finance advice noted; web shows rapid market changes. Posterior: 75%.
Visual Content Analysis
Images included in the original content
VISUAL DESCRIPTION
Screenshot of Kalshi trading interface showing a market on Andrew Cuomo, with options to buy or sell 'Yes' shares at 6.3 cents and 'No' at 93.9 cents; includes a profile photo of Andrew Cuomo, amount input set to $1,000, and potential winnings calculation.
TEXT IN IMAGE
Andrew Cuomo Yes 6.3¢ No 93.9¢ Amount $1,000 To win $14,367.92 Avg. Price 7¢ Trade
MANIPULATION
No signs of editing; interface elements and styling match official Kalshi app screenshots.
TEMPORAL ACCURACY
Post dated 2025-10-21; odds align with recent web results on Cuomo mayor bets as of 2025-10-22, no outdated indicators like old timestamps.
LOCATION ACCURACY
Image depicts an online trading platform (Kalshi), which is location-agnostic and matches the claim of a digital market; no physical location implied.
FACT-CHECK
Accurately shows Kalshi odds for Cuomo mayor market; cross-verified with web sources indicating low 'Yes' probability around 6-9% in late 2025.
VISUAL DESCRIPTION
Screenshot of Polymarket interface for NYC Mayor Election market focused on 'Buy No · Andrew Cuomo' as Independent; displays 'Yes' at 9 cents and 'No' at 92 cents, with amount set to $12,000, interest earning note, odds at 8% chance, and payout if No wins.
TEXT IN IMAGE
New York City Mayor Election Buy No · Andrew Cuomo Independent Yes 9¢ No 92¢ Amount $12,000.0 Earn 3.75% Interest Odds 8% chance Payout if No $13,044 Sign up to trade
MANIPULATION
Genuine appearance with consistent Polymarket UI elements; no artifacts or inconsistencies.
TEMPORAL ACCURACY
Aligns with post date of 2025-10-21 and recent news on 2025 NYC mayor betting volumes; no historical markers suggesting otherwise.
LOCATION ACCURACY
Online platform screenshot (Polymarket), not tied to a specific physical location, directly supports the digital arbitrage claim.
FACT-CHECK
Correctly depicts Polymarket odds implying 92% chance Cuomo does not win; supported by web results showing high 'No' probabilities in October 2025.
How Is This Framed?
Biases, omissions, and misleading presentation techniques detected
Omits key details such as platform fees, liquidity constraints, tax implications, and rapid market adjustments that could negate the arbitrage profit.
Problematic phrases:
"free money""win every single time"What's actually there:
Arbitrage exists but requires accounting for 1-2% fees, potential slippage, and odds changes
What's implied:
Guaranteed net profit without costs or risks
Impact: Misleads readers into perceiving the opportunity as low-risk and effortless, potentially leading to unprofitable trades or regulatory issues.
Presents the mispricing as currently exploitable without noting how quickly prediction markets correct, creating a false sense of time-sensitive gain.
Problematic phrases:
"You can probably make some amount of free money"What's actually there:
Odds can shift in minutes due to trading activity
What's implied:
Stable opportunity for immediate action
Impact: Prompts impulsive betting before verifying current odds or feasibility, increasing chance of missed profits or losses.
Focuses on gross potential profit from the price difference without scaling to net returns after fees or bet sizes limited by liquidity.
Problematic phrases:
"some amount of free money"What's actually there:
Effective profit margin ~1-2% after fees on small bet sizes due to liquidity
What's implied:
Substantial easy gains regardless of scale
Impact: Exaggerates the magnitude of 'free money' available, leading readers to overestimate viable returns.
Sources & References
External sources consulted for this analysis
https://www.foxbusiness.com/media/who-democratic-nominee-nyc-mayor-millions-betting-live
https://sherwood.news/markets/kalshi-polymarket-presidential-election-prediction-markets/
https://polymarket.com/
https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-win-dem-nomination-for-nyc-mayor
https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/prediction-markets-signal-government-shutdown-may-last-mid-november
https://www.dlnews.com/articles/markets/prediction-markets-hit-record-trading-volumes/
https://www.forbes.com/sites/yezensaadah/2025/06/24/cuomo-retakes-lead-over-mamdani-in-nyc-mayoral-race-betting-odds/
https://www.quiverquant.com/news/Markets+bet+on+whether+a+representative+of+the+Andrew+Cuomo+party+will+win+the+NYC+Mayor+race+in+2025
https://chaincatcher.com/en/article/2211862
https://bitcoinethereumnews.com/finance/betting-markets-predict-andrew-cuomo-will-win-nyc-mayoral-primary/
https://www.gamblingnews.com/news/cuomo-takes-back-lead-in-nyc-mayor-race-betting-as-mamdani-gains-ground/
https://www.pokerscout.com/trump-tariff-case-single-day-volatility-kalshi-arbitrage-opportunity/
https://nexteventhorizon.substack.com/p/nyc-mayor-kalshi-polymarket
https://www.silive.com/politics/2025/03/top-name-in-nyc-mayors-race-in-shocking-freefall-on-gambling-sites.html
https://x.com/ankurnagpal/status/1884951208168673697
https://x.com/ankurnagpal/status/1728854339727532463
https://x.com/ankurnagpal/status/1838641961852350954
https://x.com/ankurnagpal/status/1937896806660137413
https://x.com/ankurnagpal/status/1942557471089811468
https://x.com/ankurnagpal/status/1814309901331570864
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2025/06/23/nyc-mayor-zohran-mamdani-andrew-cuomo-polymarket/84321135007/
https://polymarket.com/event/new-york-city-mayoral-election
https://www.foxbusiness.com/media/who-democratic-nominee-nyc-mayor-millions-betting-live
https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-win-dem-nomination-for-nyc-mayor
https://www.forbes.com/sites/yezensaadah/2025/06/24/cuomo-retakes-lead-over-mamdani-in-nyc-mayoral-race-betting-odds/
https://www.fox5ny.com/news/nyc-mayor-race-odds-mamdani-cuomo-sliwa
https://www.dlnews.com/articles/markets/prediction-markets-hit-record-trading-volumes/
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/zohran-mamdani-sees-odds-rise-205602534.html
https://bitcoinethereumnews.com/crypto/andrew-cuomos-crypto-gamble-is-a-conflict-of-interest-says-zohran-mamdani/
https://www.quiverquant.com/news/Markets+bet+on+whether+a+representative+of+the+Andrew+Cuomo+party+will+win+the+NYC+Mayor+race+in+2025
https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/prediction-market-traders-give-mamdani-84-chance-winning-new-york-mayoral-race
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/zohran-mamdani-83-chance-winning-183249532.html
https://www.covers.com/politics/new-york-city-mayor-election-odds-2025
https://www.newsweek.com/mamdani-cuomo-polls-new-york-election-2131768
https://x.com/ankurnagpal/status/1838641961852350954
https://x.com/ankurnagpal/status/1884951208168673697
https://x.com/ankurnagpal/status/1728854339727532463
https://x.com/ankurnagpal/status/1937896806660137413
https://x.com/ankurnagpal/status/1370113004763758594
https://x.com/ankurnagpal/status/1829554545850294780
Want to see @ankurnagpal's track record?
View their credibility score and all analyzed statements