Post by @kshaughnessy2
82% credible (88% factual, 76% presentation). The core claims about OpenAI's revenue and costs for 2025 are supported by credible sources, though OpenAI disputes these figures with higher projections. The presentation quality is reduced by omission framing, failing to mention OpenAI's official revenue projections, and speculative assertions about industry-wide impacts.
Analysis Summary
A tweet by Kristen Shaughnessy highlights Edward Zitron's Substack report, which uses leaked documents to claim OpenAI's revenue is $4.3 billion for the first three quarters of 2025, far below the $13 billion figure cited by CEO Sam Altman, with inference costs exceeding $12 billion. This raises questions about OpenAI's profitability and potential price hikes. The analysis suggests broader implications for thin margins across the generative AI sector, potentially signaling unsustainability.
Original Content
The Facts
The core claims draw from leaked documents reported by credible sources like The Register and Financial Times, aligning with estimates of $4.3 billion revenue and high inference costs around $12 billion for 2025, though OpenAI disputes these with higher ARR projections of $20 billion. Speculation on industry-wide margins and pricing is reasonable but unproven without further verification. Mostly accurate, with speculative elements on broader impacts.
Benefit of the Doubt
The author advances a bearish perspective on OpenAI and the AI industry, using Zitron's report to emphasize financial vulnerabilities and leaked data to build a narrative of hidden losses and overhyping. Key omissions include OpenAI's official revenue run-rate claims of over $13 billion and potential efficiencies in scaling that could mitigate costs, which might counter the alarmist tone. This selective focus on negatives shapes reader perception toward viewing the AI boom as fragile and investor-risky, aligning with the author's systemic risk skepticism.
Predictions Made
Claims about future events that can be verified later
If it does not, OpenAI’s costs are dramatically higher than the prices it is charging its customers, which makes me wonder whether price increases could be necessary to begin making more money, or at the very least losing less.
Prior: 65%. Evidence: Sources like Economic Times and Parameter note costs outpacing revenue, raising pricing necessity; OpenAI's history of adjustments supports; strong domain expertise from author. Posterior: 85%.
Visual Content Analysis
Images included in the original content
VISUAL DESCRIPTION
Screenshot of a Substack newsletter page from 'Where's Your Ed At?' featuring a cartoonish illustration of Mount Rushmore with stylized presidential faces under a banner reading 'Where's Your Ed At?'. The main content shows the article title 'Exclusive: Here's How Much OpenAI Spends On Inference and Its Revenue Share With Microsoft' by Edward Zitron, dated November 12, 2025, with an 8-minute read indicator, on a beige background.
TEXT IN IMAGE
Where's Your Ed At? Exclusive: Here's How Much OpenAI Spends On Inference and Its Revenue Share With Microsoft Edward Zitron / Nov 12, 2025 / 8 min read
MANIPULATION
No visible signs of editing, artifacts, or inconsistencies; the screenshot appears authentic with consistent Substack styling and no deepfake elements.
TEMPORAL ACCURACY
The article date of November 12, 2025, aligns with the current date of November 17, 2025, and matches recent web reports on the topic.
LOCATION ACCURACY
The image depicts a digital online article with no specific geographical location claimed or depicted.
FACT-CHECK
The image accurately represents a real Substack article by Edward Zitron published on November 12, 2025, as corroborated by web sources like Where's Your Ed At? and references in The Register and TechCrunch; it supports the tweet's claim about the report's existence and title.
How Is This Framed?
Biases, omissions, and misleading presentation techniques detected
Fails to mention OpenAI's official revenue projections (e.g., $13B+ ARR or $20B run-rate) that dispute the leaked figures, presenting the $4.3B as unchallenged truth.
Problematic phrases:
"puts Open AI’s revenue at $4.3 Billion not $13 Billion""earning far less than anyone thought"What's actually there:
OpenAI claims $13B+ ARR for 2024, projecting $20B
What's implied:
$4.3B as definitive lower revenue without dispute
Impact: Readers perceive OpenAI's finances as deceptively worse, inflating industry risk without balanced view of potential growth or efficiencies.
Compares $4.3B (for first three quarters) directly to $13B (likely full-year or ARR) without clarifying time periods, exaggerating the revenue gap.
Problematic phrases:
"$4.3 Billion not $13 Billion"What's actually there:
$4.3B covers partial 2024/2025 period per leaks; $13B is annualized run-rate
What's implied:
Massive overall shortfall suggesting collapse
Impact: Misleads on financial health magnitude, making discrepancies seem more dire and industry implications broader than evidenced.
Uses questioning rhetoric and 'big questions' to create immediate alarm about profitability and price hikes, despite speculative nature.
Problematic phrases:
"raises big questions about whether OpenAI is spending far more""makes me wonder whether price increases could be necessary"What's actually there:
Speculative based on leaks; no imminent crisis confirmed
What's implied:
Urgent threat to sustainability
Impact: Prompts hasty reader concern over non-urgent, unverified speculations, amplifying fear of industry-wide fallout.
Implies leaked documents directly prove 'hiding' via confusing numbers, without evidencing intent or manipulation.
Problematic phrases:
"hiding it with confusing numbers"What's actually there:
Documents show estimates; no proof of deliberate hiding
What's implied:
Intentional deception causing worse finances
Impact: Falsely links data discrepancies to malfeasance, eroding trust in official reports and heightening skepticism toward AI sector.
Sources & References
External sources consulted for this analysis
https://www.wheresyoured.at/where-is-openais-money-going/
https://www.theregister.com/2025/11/12/openai_spending_report/
https://www.ft.com/content/fce77ba4-6231-4920-9e99-693a6c38e7d5
https://www.wheresyoured.at/oai_docs/
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/leaked-documents-shed-light-much-004741535.html
https://www.reuters.com/technology/openais-first-half-revenue-rises-16-about-43-billion-information-reports-2025-09-30/
https://techcrunch.com/2025/11/14/leaked-documents-shed-light-into-how-much-openai-pays-microsoft/
https://threads.com/@carnage4life/post/DRH4tEUCXJY/unnamed-sources-shared-with-tech-crunch-that-open-ai-has-a-revenue-share-deal
https://parameter.io/openai-revenues-surge-as-microsoft-payout-nearly-doubles-to-866m-in-2025
https://www.techbuzz.ai/articles/leaked-docs-reveal-openai-s-865m-payment-to-microsoft-in-2025
https://fortune.com/2025/11/12/openai-cash-burn-rate-annual-losses-2028-profitable-2030-financial-documents/
https://cryptorank.io/news/feed/20dd5-openai-microsoft-revenue-leak
https://winbuzzer.com/2025/11/13/leaked-docs-openais-azure-costs-dramatically-higher-than-expected-xcxwbn/
https://fortune.com/2025/11/01/sam-altman-openai-annual-revenue-13-billion-forecast-100-billion-2027/
https://x.com/kshaughnessy2/status/1987503461257371975
https://x.com/kshaughnessy2/status/1883632243752501610
https://x.com/kshaughnessy2/status/1883807148787831051
https://x.com/kshaughnessy2/status/1986177860361478260
https://x.com/kshaughnessy2/status/1889290083242565762
https://x.com/kshaughnessy2/status/1831077412668580198
https://www.theregister.com/2025/11/12/openai_spending_report/
https://techcrunch.com/2025/11/14/leaked-documents-shed-light-into-how-much-openai-pays-microsoft/
https://www.exponentialview.co/p/unpicking-openais-real-revenues
https://www.wheresyoured.at/oai_docs/
https://winbuzzer.com/2025/11/13/leaked-docs-openais-azure-costs-dramatically-higher-than-expected-xcxwbn/
https://www.wheresyoured.at/where-is-openais-money-going/
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/leaked-documents-shed-light-much-004741535.html
https://parameter.io/openai-revenues-surge-as-microsoft-payout-nearly-doubles-to-866m-in-2025/
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/tech/technology/leaked-files-expose-openais-huge-payments-to-microsoft/articleshow/125350225.cms
https://the-decoder.com/leaked-finances-hint-that-openais-inference-may-be-swallowing-its-revenue/
https://cryptorank.io/news/feed/d6ec3-openais-numbers-dont-add-up
https://www.archyde.com/openai-microsoft-deal-leaked-pay-details-revealed/
https://cryptopolitan.com/openais-numbers-dont-add-up
https://thetechportal.com/2025/11/15/leaked-files-reveal-financial-transfer-details-between-openai-and-microsoft/
https://x.com/kshaughnessy2/status/1987503461257371975
https://x.com/kshaughnessy2/status/1986177860361478260
https://x.com/kshaughnessy2/status/1883632243752501610
https://x.com/kshaughnessy2/status/1883807148787831051
https://x.com/kshaughnessy2/status/1973105465803604415
https://x.com/kshaughnessy2/status/1889290083242565762
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