Post by @KyleDeWriter
72% credible (80% factual, 59% presentation). The post accurately reports Polymarket's 94% odds for Zohran Mamdani and recent polls showing a closer race, but its central claims of market rigging and a 'psyop' are highly speculative without evidence, relying on conspiracy theory framing and omission of prediction market reliability data.
Analysis Summary
The post claims that Polymarket's 94% odds for Zohran Mamdani winning the NYC mayoral election are artificially inflated through a 'psyop' and potential market rigging, contrasting with polls showing a closer race at 40% for Mamdani versus 34% for Andrew Cuomo. The core allegation of manipulation lacks concrete evidence, relying on speculation and discrepancies between prediction markets and polls. It encourages betting on Cuomo as a high-risk opportunity while inviting community research.
Original Content
The Facts
The post accurately reports current Polymarket odds and recent poll numbers, but its central claims of a 'psyop,' market rigging, and Democratic manipulation are highly speculative without supporting evidence from credible sources. Verdict: Partially Accurate but Largely Speculative – Prediction markets like Polymarket often diverge from polls due to trader sentiment and liquidity, not necessarily fraud, as noted in analyses from outlets like Nate Silver's Substack.
Benefit of the Doubt
The author advances a conspiratorial perspective to question the legitimacy of Polymarket's high odds for Mamdani, positioning it as a manipulated 'psyop' to suppress voter turnout and influence betting. This emphasizes discrepancies between markets and polls while omitting key context like the historical reliability of prediction markets in elections (e.g., Polymarket's accuracy in 2024 outcomes) and the absence of verified rigging evidence from investigations. The selective framing shapes perception by portraying safe betting on Mamdani as a trap, encouraging riskier bets on Cuomo to engage the audience in a 'truth-seeking' narrative that boosts interaction and follows.
Predictions Made
Claims about future events that can be verified later
psyop can appear true and I may appear wrong, but proof me after election results.
Prior: 50% (neutral for future verification). Evidence: Speculative; no current proof. Author disclaimer adds humility. Posterior: 45%.
Visual Content Analysis
Images included in the original content
VISUAL DESCRIPTION
A screenshot of a Polymarket prediction market chart displaying probability lines over time (May to November 2025) for four candidates in the NYC Mayoral Election, with Zohran Mamdani's orange line dominant at 94%, Andrew Cuomo's blue line at 6%, and minor lines for Curtis Sliwa and Eric Adams at 1% each; volume is shown as $361,503,56, and the platform logo is visible.
TEXT IN IMAGE
New York City Mayoral Election $361,503,56 Vol Zohran Mamdani 94% Andrew Cuomo 6% Curtis Sliwa 1% Eric Adams 1% [Chart labels: May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov; Lines for Zohran Mamdani (orange, peaking at 94%), Andrew Cuomo (blue, at 6%), Curtis Sliwa (yellow, at 1%), Eric Adams (light blue, at 1%)]
MANIPULATION
No signs of editing, inconsistencies, or artifacts; appears to be a genuine screenshot of the Polymarket interface with standard UI elements and consistent graphing.
TEMPORAL ACCURACY
The chart timeline extends to November 2025, aligning with the current date of 2025-11-03 and recent web reports of similar high odds for Mamdani (e.g., 94-96% in late October/early November updates).
LOCATION ACCURACY
The image depicts a digital online market platform (Polymarket), which matches the post's claim about NYC election odds without reference to a physical location.
FACT-CHECK
The odds and chart data align with recent Polymarket reports (e.g., 94% for Mamdani as of early November 2025 per web sources like Economic Times and Pravda EN); volume figure is plausible for a high-profile market, though exact match unverified – no contradictions found via reverse image search context.
How Is This Framed?
Biases, omissions, and misleading presentation techniques detected
Implies market-polls discrepancy is caused by rigging/psyop without evidence, ignoring legitimate factors like trader liquidity and sentiment.
Problematic phrases:
"why then market is 94/6?""the market is most likely rigged"What's actually there:
Markets diverge from polls due to betting dynamics (e.g., 2024 election accuracy per Nate Silver)
What's implied:
Discrepancy proves Democratic manipulation
Impact: Leads readers to infer causation from correlation, fostering unfounded suspicion of fraud over normal market behavior.
Omits historical reliability of prediction markets (e.g., Polymarket's 2024 accuracy) and lack of verified rigging evidence, presenting discrepancy as anomalous.
Problematic phrases:
"NYC Mayoral election market, Mamdani is not 94%""compare polls to election results 2024, this shows which polls are rigged"What's actually there:
No credible investigations confirm rigging; markets often lead polls
What's implied:
Discrepancy indicates psyop without alternatives
Impact: Skews perception toward conspiracy by withholding counter-evidence, making speculation seem like the only explanation.
Fails to mention other candidates (e.g., Sliwa at 24%) or reasons voters might stay home unrelated to markets, focusing only on manipulation.
Problematic phrases:
"make new york ppl stay home and not to go vote""why it can't affect zohran voters do the same?"What's actually there:
Polls include multiple candidates; turnout suppression claims unverified
What's implied:
Market solely drives voter apathy via psyop
Impact: Reinforces one-sided narrative of targeted manipulation, ignoring multifaceted election dynamics and reducing perceived legitimacy of odds.
Creates pressure to bet immediately on Cuomo as a 'risk' opportunity before election, implying time-sensitive 'truth' revelation.
Problematic phrases:
"load an amount to zohran and earn 6% to entry. or take a risk at cuomo with funds you not afraid to loose""proof me after election results"What's actually there:
Election not imminent; markets fluctuate
What's implied:
Act now or miss exposing the psyop
Impact: Heightens emotional response to speculate and engage, bypassing deliberate analysis of risks.
Highlights single poll (Atlas) and market odds while cherry-picking 2024 examples to claim poll rigging, neglecting broader polling aggregates.
Problematic phrases:
"according to atlas poll... 40%... against Cuomo with 34%""compare polls to election results 2024"What's actually there:
Aggregates show varied leads; 2024 discrepancies not universal rigging
What's implied:
One poll represents rigged reality
Impact: Exaggerates significance of isolated data, misleading on race closeness and market validity.
Sources & References
External sources consulted for this analysis
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2025/06/23/nyc-mayor-zohran-mamdani-andrew-cuomo-polymarket/84321135007/
https://polymarket.com/event/new-york-city-mayoral-election
https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/oct-28-nyc-election-cuomo-120915415.html
https://www.fox5ny.com/election/nyc-mayor-polls-mamdani-cuomo-sliwa-adams-oct-28-election-day
https://www.natesilver.net/p/is-the-nyc-mayoral-race-tightening
https://www.fox5ny.com/election/nyc-mayor-polls-mamdani-cuomo-sliwa-oct-29-election-day
https://polymarket.com/event/new-york-city-mayoral-election/will-zohran-mamdani-win-the-2025-nyc-mayoral-election
https://sports.betmgm.ca/en/blog/novelty-bets/new-york-city-mayoral-election-odds-favourites-bm20
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/new-york-election-results-polymarket-has-already-projected-the-winner-heres-who-he-is/articleshow/125020599.cms
https://www.nydailynews.com/2025/11/01/nyc-mayoral-election-poll-results-cuomo-mamdani/
https://politicsny.com/2025/11/02/nyc-mayors-race-mamdani-leads-but-cuomo-narrows-the-gap-in-two-new-polls
https://www.newsweek.com/zohran-mamdanis-chances-winning-landslide-new-york-election-10949997
https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/oct-28-nyc-election-cuomo-120915415.html
https://news-pravda.com/world/2025/10/27/1811964.html
https://x.com/KyleDeWriter/status/1979643662842917089
https://x.com/KyleDeWriter/status/1981737106364915925
https://x.com/KyleDeWriter/status/1978152591931392339
https://x.com/KyleDeWriter/status/1980284764138455111
https://x.com/KyleDeWriter/status/1956359868983464046
https://x.com/KyleDeWriter/status/1985009039546212474
https://polymarket.com/event/new-york-city-mayoral-election
https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/oct-28-nyc-election-cuomo-120915415.html
https://www.fox5ny.com/election/nyc-mayor-polls-mamdani-cuomo-sliwa-oct-29-election-day
https://www.fox5ny.com/election/nyc-mayor-polls-mamdani-cuomo-sliwa-adams-oct-28-election-day
https://www.natesilver.net/p/is-the-nyc-mayoral-race-tightening
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2025/06/23/nyc-mayor-zohran-mamdani-andrew-cuomo-polymarket/84321135007/
https://polymarket.com/event/will-mamdani-get-over-50-of-the-vote-in-the-general-mayoral-election
https://www.financialexpress.com/world-news/us-news/nyc-mayoral-election-poll-results-zohran-mamdanis-lead-narrows-as-andrew-cuomo-and-curtis-sliwa-close-in/4029927/
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/new-york-election-results-polymarket-has-already-projected-the-winner-heres-who-he-is/articleshow/125020599.cms
https://politicsny.com/2025/11/02/nyc-mayors-race-mamdani-leads-but-cuomo-narrows-the-gap-in-two-new-polls/
https://www.nydailynews.com/2025/11/01/nyc-mayoral-election-poll-results-cuomo-mamdani/
https://sports.betmgm.ca/en/blog/novelty-bets/new-york-city-mayoral-election-odds-favourites-bm20
https://www.newsweek.com/zohran-mamdanis-chances-winning-landslide-new-york-election-10949997
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/10/29/nyregion/nyc-mayor-election-news
https://x.com/KyleDeWriter/status/1979643662842917089
https://x.com/KyleDeWriter/status/1981737106364915925
https://x.com/KyleDeWriter/status/1978152591931392339
https://x.com/KyleDeWriter/status/1980284764138455111
https://x.com/KyleDeWriter/status/1938628409674051609
https://x.com/KyleDeWriter/status/1985009039546212474
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