Post by @elonmusk
13% credible (15% factual, 11% presentation). Musk's claim about quantum computing in lunar shadowed craters is speculative and lacks empirical support, presenting an unverified opinion as fact. The assertion overlooks significant practical challenges and counter-evidence favoring Earth-based quantum facilities.
Analysis Summary
Elon Musk asserts that quantum computing is best conducted in the permanently shadowed craters on the Moon, likely due to their extreme cold temperatures that could minimize thermal noise in qubits. This remains a speculative idea without empirical evidence or practical implementation, though it aligns with ongoing discussions on space-based quantum tech. Counter-arguments highlight significant challenges like radiation exposure, infrastructure costs, and power supply issues that make Earth-based facilities more viable currently.
Original Content
The Facts
The claim is an unverified opinion presented as fact, lacking supporting evidence from current research; while the cold environment of shadowed craters (around 50K) could theoretically benefit quantum stability, no studies confirm it as the 'best' location. Speculative and overstated. Practical counter-evidence includes advancements in terrestrial cryogenic systems and the logistical impossibilities of lunar deployment.
Benefit of the Doubt
Musk advances a futuristic vision integrating his interests in space exploration (SpaceX) and AI/quantum tech (xAI), positioning the Moon as a hub for advanced computing to promote off-world innovation. The statement emphasizes environmental advantages like stable low temperatures but omits critical challenges such as cosmic radiation damaging qubits, the immense cost of lunar infrastructure, and the absence of proven quantum hardware transport to space. Key omissions shape perception by ignoring feasibility barriers, framing the idea as straightforwardly superior to build hype around Musk's ventures. This selective presentation amplifies excitement while downplaying risks, potentially misleading readers on the timeline and viability.
How Is This Framed?
Biases, omissions, and misleading presentation techniques detected
The claim selectively presents the cold temperatures of lunar craters as an ideal condition for quantum computing without mentioning critical barriers like cosmic radiation, infrastructure costs, and power supply challenges, altering the perceived viability.
Problematic phrases:
"best done""permanently shadowed craters on the Moon"What's actually there:
speculative idea with significant logistical and environmental challenges
What's implied:
straightforwardly superior and optimal location
Impact: Misleads readers into viewing lunar quantum computing as practically achievable and superior, fostering hype while obscuring real-world feasibility issues and promoting Musk's ventures uncritically.
Omits evidence of successful Earth-based quantum advancements using cryogenic systems and the absence of any lunar quantum computing prototypes or studies confirming superiority.
Problematic phrases:
"best done"What's actually there:
terrestrial facilities are currently more viable with ongoing progress
What's implied:
lunar craters are unequivocally the best option
Impact: Readers undervalue established Earth-based alternatives, perceiving the lunar idea as the definitive solution without balanced comparison.
Implies lunar craters as the 'best' scale for quantum computing by focusing on temperature advantage, but neglects comparative scales of challenges like radiation exposure versus Earth-based noise reduction techniques.
Problematic phrases:
"best done"What's actually there:
lunar temperatures ~50K beneficial but radiation and costs outweigh in current assessments
What's implied:
lunar environment provides unmatched scale of advantages over all alternatives
Impact: Distorts perception of magnitude, making the idea seem proportionally more advantageous than it is, encouraging over-optimism about implementation.
Sources & References
External sources consulted for this analysis
https://epjquantumtechnology.springeropen.com/articles/10.1140/epjqt/s40507-025-00369-8
https://gis.stackexchange.com/questions/319061/using-dem-to-find-permanently-shadowed-craters
https://science.nasa.gov/moon/formation/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Permanently_shadowed_crater
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-25882-z
https://medium.com/@milton.mattox/beyond-earths-orbit-why-the-moon-could-host-humanity-s-first-distributed-quantum-computer-c874a4f43c42
https://phys.org/news/2013-08-permanently-shadowed-craters.html
https://scitechdaily.com/peering-into-the-moons-shadows-ai-provides-sharper-images-of-lunar-craters-that-contain-water-ice/
https://sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/09/210923115621.htm
https://earthsky.org/space/permanently-shadowed-crater-moon-1st-look-shadowcam/
https://phys.org/news/2013-08-permanently-shadowed-craters.html
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-25882-z
https://nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06096-3
https://www.space.com/technique-brings-shadowed-moon-craters-to-light
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1782274178416001305
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1953783678859194631
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1295214732123799554
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1981530470358950277
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1691707694896328945
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1946992850916565242
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-25882-z
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/09/210923115621.htm
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Permanently_shadowed_crater
https://www.ox.ac.uk/news/features/peering-moons-permanently-shadowed-regions-ai
https://science.nasa.gov/moon/lunar-craters/why-study-craters/
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S001910352100511X
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10499310/
https://scitechdaily.com/peering-into-the-moons-shadows-ai-provides-sharper-images-of-lunar-craters-that-contain-water-ice/
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-25882-z
https://phys.org/news/2022-08-ai-illuminates-permanently-shadowed-regions.html
https://earthsky.org/space/permanently-shadowed-crater-moon-1st-look-shadowcam/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2025/09/16/moon-mining-helium-quantum-computing/
https://www.space.com/technique-brings-shadowed-moon-craters-to-light
https://phys.org/news/2013-08-permanently-shadowed-craters.html
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1981530470358950277
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1657256693150154752
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1415484292466200578
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1087799667692392448
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1896412067416150181
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1163894933280964608
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