Post by @great_martis
78% credible (85% factual, 70% presentation). The post's claim of unprecedented market overvaluation in 2024-2025 is supported by credible sources like Bloomberg and Elliott Wave International, but market predictions remain speculative. The presentation quality is reduced by omission framing, as it neglects counter-evidence of prolonged high valuations without crashes.
Analysis Summary
The post questions the notion that current market conditions are unique by sharing a chart highlighting extreme overvaluation in 2024-2025 across multiple metrics, surpassing historical peaks like 1929 and 1999. The main finding is that the chart positions the present era as the most overvalued in history, implying heightened crash risk. This aligns with the author's pattern of bearish technical analysis on financial markets.
Original Content
The Facts
The post's claim of unprecedented overvaluation is supported by the chart from credible sources like Bloomberg and Elliott Wave International, though market predictions are inherently speculative. Verdict: Mostly accurate, but interpretive as valuations can persist without immediate correction. Opposing views note that metrics like CAPE have been high for years without a crash, and factors like low interest rates may justify elevated levels.
Benefit of the Doubt
The author advances a bearish perspective on financial markets, emphasizing historical parallels to bubbles to warn of impending downturns and promote vigilance among followers. Key omissions include counterarguments like sustained bull markets in overvalued conditions (e.g., post-1999 tech boom recovery) and modern factors such as AI-driven growth or monetary policy that could differentiate 'this time.' Selective presentation of peak valuations shapes reader perception toward fear and potential selling, omitting bullish indicators like earnings growth or sentiment data from social media analyses.
Visual Content Analysis
Images included in the original content
VISUAL DESCRIPTION
A blue line graph plotting average percentage overvaluation on the y-axis (0-100%) against time periods from 1900s to 2020s on the x-axis. The line shows fluctuations with sharp peaks circled and labeled at 1929, 1966, and 1999, and a recent steep rise to over 100% in 2024-2025. Title and subtitles detail the metrics combined; footer credits sources.
TEXT IN IMAGE
2024-2025: NO. 1 IN OVERVALUATION ACROSS THE BOARD Combined Trailing P/E, Forward P/E, CAPE, P/B, EV/EBITDA, Q Ratio, Mkt Cap to GDP avg. percent 100 80 60 40 20 0 Macro bond 1900s 1920s 1940s 1960s 1980s 2000s 2020s Source: Simon White, Bloomberg; Macrobond (1929) (1966) (1999) Elliott Wave International (www.elliottwave.com) © January 2025
MANIPULATION
No signs of editing, inconsistencies, or artifacts; the chart appears professionally produced with consistent styling and no unnatural elements.
TEMPORAL ACCURACY
Chart dated January 2025, aligning with the current date of November 2025; data extends to 2024-2025, indicating recent analysis without outdated elements.
LOCATION ACCURACY
No specific location claimed or depicted; it's a global financial metrics chart, so spatial framing is not applicable.
FACT-CHECK
The chart accurately depicts historical overvaluation data from sources like Bloomberg and Elliott Wave, verifiable through similar analyses in financial literature (e.g., Shiller CAPE ratios peaking near current levels). No contradictions found; peaks match known bubble eras, though absolute 'No. 1' ranking is interpretive based on combined metrics.
How Is This Framed?
Biases, omissions, and misleading presentation techniques detected
The post omits counter-evidence such as prolonged periods of high valuations without crashes (e.g., post-1999 recovery) and modern justifying factors like low interest rates or AI-driven growth, leading to an unbalanced bearish interpretation.
Problematic phrases:
"This time it’s different?""most overvalued in history, implying heightened crash risk"What's actually there:
Valuations high but have persisted for years without correction; factors like monetary policy may sustain them
What's implied:
Unprecedented levels guarantee an imminent crash similar to past bubbles
Impact: Misleads readers into overestimating crash probability and underestimating bull market resilience, fostering unnecessary fear and potential premature selling.
Cherry-picks comparison to crash-era peaks (1929, 1999) while neglecting non-crash high-valuation periods or adjusted metrics that normalize for current economic conditions.
Problematic phrases:
"surpassing historical peaks like 1929 and 1999"What's actually there:
Current metrics extreme but comparable to prolonged highs in 2010s bull market
What's implied:
Scale of overvaluation matches only catastrophic historical events
Impact: Exaggerates the magnitude of current risks by selective historical benchmarking, distorting perception of market normalcy.
The sarcastic title and crash-risk implication create false immediacy around overvaluation, despite valuations having been elevated for years without correction.
Problematic phrases:
"This time it’s different?""heightened crash risk"What's actually there:
Overvaluation ongoing since ~2020 without crash
What's implied:
Crash imminent due to new extremes
Impact: Prompts hasty emotional responses like panic selling, rather than deliberate analysis of persistent trends.
Presents only bearish technical patterns and bubble parallels, omitting bullish indicators like earnings growth, positive sentiment data, or social media analyses showing market optimism.
Problematic phrases:
"The main finding is that the chart positions the present era as the most overvalued in history"What's actually there:
Multi-faceted market with strong earnings and innovation drivers
What's implied:
Overwhelmingly negative outlook dominated by valuation extremes
Impact: Shapes reader perception toward fear-driven vigilance and selling, suppressing consideration of balanced or optimistic scenarios.
Sources & References
External sources consulted for this analysis
https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/twitter-sentiment-and-stock-market-movements-predictive-power-social-media
https://www.ft.com/markets
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12559-021-09819-8
https://www.blackrock.com/us/individual/insights/blackrock-investment-institute/weekly-commentary
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1877042811023895
https://www.reuters.com/markets/
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/262355403_Analyzing_Stock_Market_Movements_Using_Twitter_Sentiment_Analysis
https://x.com/great_martis/status/1962987675327332838
https://x.com/great_martis/status/1912972780448170365
https://x.com/great_martis/status/1717999735599255989
https://x.com/great_martis/status/1766306191930720616
https://x.com/great_martis/status/1964082539783737524
https://x.com/great_martis/status/1915889770116616385
https://www.currentmarketvaluation.com/
https://www.currentmarketvaluation.com/models/buffett-indicator.php
https://www.fidelity.com/viewpoints/market-and-economic-insights/quarterly-market-update
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/GFSR/Issues/2025/10/14/global-financial-stability-report-october-2025
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/fundamental-analysis/09/five-must-have-metrics-value-investors.asp
https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/commentary/article/us-equities-market-attributes/
https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2025/jun/financial-market-volatility-spring-2025
https://markets.financialcontent.com/wral/article/marketminute-2025-10-27-markets-perilous-peak-is-the-us-stock-market-more-overvalued-than-ever
https://investing.com/news/investment-ideas/cavas-49-decline-validates-investingpros-december-2024-overvaluation-alert-93CH-4307266
https://financialpost.com/investing/key-signs-stock-market-bubble
https://www.investing.com/news/investment-ideas/loma-negra-shares-drop-41-after-investingpros-overvaluation-warning-93CH-4283695
https://markets.financialcontent.com/stocks/article/marketminute-2025-8-13-is-the-us-stock-market-overvalued-analysts-weigh-in-amidst-record-highs
https://www.investing.com/news/investment-ideas/microstrategys-overvaluation-signal-captures-45-downside-move-93CH-4210603
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-overvalued-where-investors-143000127.html
https://x.com/great_martis/status/1949925668126675083
https://x.com/great_martis/status/1864792234341863912
https://x.com/great_martis/status/1939814336731730332
https://x.com/great_martis/status/1844810008070177275
https://x.com/great_martis/status/1861070732199100494
https://x.com/great_martis/status/1969573048295834082
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