Post by @TheRabbitHole84
71% credible (77% factual, 57% presentation). The poll data from the SKEPTIC Research Center accurately reflects public underestimation of migrant entries, but the claim of 10 million entries is misleading as it includes encounters and gotaways, not net illegal immigration, omitting significant removals and expulsions under Title 42. The presentation suffers from oversimplification and omission framing, reducing the credibility of the overall message.
Analysis Summary
The post highlights a poll showing that liberals underestimate migrant entries at the southern border during Biden's presidency at around 3.77-4.14 million, contrasting it with a claimed reality of 10 million. The 10 million figure represents total encounters plus estimated gotaways, but fact-checks indicate only about 2.5 million were released into the U.S., with 2.8 million removed or expelled. This framing emphasizes public misperception to critique administration policies.
Original Content
The Facts
The poll data from the SKEPTIC Research Center appears accurate in showing varying estimates by political orientation, but the 'reality' of 10 million is based on encounters and gotaways, not confirmed entries, as many migrants were expelled. Partially accurate but misleading, as it overstates net illegal immigration by omitting removals and policy contexts.
Benefit of the Doubt
The author advances a conservative agenda by portraying liberal underestimation of immigration scale to argue for stricter policies and criticize the Biden-Harris administration's border management. Key omissions include the high number of expulsions (over 2.8 million) and that not all encounters result in entry, which downplays enforcement efforts and shapes perception of a border crisis. Selective focus on total encounters amplifies alarm without full context, influencing readers towards anti-immigration views.
Visual Content Analysis
Images included in the original content
VISUAL DESCRIPTION
A vertical bar chart in blue, gray, and red tones comparing average public estimates of migrant entries at the U.S. southern border during Biden's presidency across political orientations, with an arrow indicating the 'correct' figure of 10 million based on encounters plus gotaways; includes sources and study details in fine print.
TEXT IN IMAGE
“About how many migrants have entered through the American Southern Border during Biden’s presidency?” Accuracy by Political Orientation. [Bar chart with y-axis: Average Guess (millions), x-axis: Very Liberal (3.77), Liberal (4.14), Moderate (5.20), Conservative (7.35), Very Conservative (9.01). Arrow pointing to 10 labeled 'Correct number (about 10 million “encounters” + “gotaways”)'. Source: 2024 Presidential Election Study (n=3,025, September). Chart Data Source: Dept. of Homeland Security (https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/2024-09/24_0905_plcy_sb-encounters-fy24.jpg) and Customs and Border Protection (https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/southwest-land-border-encounters). SKEPTIC Research Center (2024 Presidential Election Study)]
MANIPULATION
No signs of editing, inconsistencies, or artifacts; the chart appears to be a standard infographic from a research center with cited sources.
TEMPORAL ACCURACY
The study is from September 2024 during Biden's presidency, and data sources are from 2024; relevant to ongoing discussions as of 2025, though Biden's term ends in January 2025.
LOCATION ACCURACY
The chart specifically references the American Southern Border, aligning with the post's claim about U.S. immigration; no geographical discrepancies as it's data-based, not a photo.
FACT-CHECK
The poll estimates match reported SKEPTIC Research Center data; the 10 million figure aligns with DHS/CBP encounters (about 8-9 million) plus estimated gotaways (1-2 million), but fact-checks (e.g., FactCheck.org, USA Today) clarify this includes repeats and expulsions, with net releases around 2.5 million, making the 'entered' claim overstated.
How Is This Framed?
Biases, omissions, and misleading presentation techniques detected
The '10 million' figure uses total encounters plus estimated gotaways as the denominator for 'entered,' neglecting removals and expulsions that reduce net entries.
Problematic phrases:
"Reality: 10 million"What's actually there:
2.5 million released into U.S.; 2.8 million removed/expelled
What's implied:
10 million net entries
Impact: Inflates perceived scale of illegal immigration, leading readers to believe the border is overwhelmingly porous without enforcement offsets.
Omits key context on immigration enforcement, such as Title 42 expulsions and deportations, which significantly lower net entries from the cited total.
Problematic phrases:
"illegals who entered the country""Reality: 10 million"What's actually there:
Encounters include many turned away; net migration lower per fact-checks
What's implied:
All 10 million successfully entered and stayed
Impact: Misleads readers into viewing administration policies as total failures, amplifying anti-immigration sentiment without balanced view of outcomes.
Fails to report counter-evidence like high expulsion rates (over 2.8 million) and policy-driven returns, which contradict the implication of unchecked entry.
Problematic phrases:
"People underestimate the number of illegals who entered"What's actually there:
2.8 million expelled/removed since 2021
What's implied:
Minimal enforcement; all encounters result in entry
Impact: Shapes perception of a severe, unaddressed crisis, downplaying Biden-Harris enforcement efforts and fostering urgency for stricter policies.
Presents varying liberal estimates as a pattern of systematic underestimation, implying a broader ideological flaw without evidence of representativeness.
Problematic phrases:
"Very Liberal people estimate 3.77 million Liberals estimate 4.14 million"What's actually there:
Poll shows orientation-based estimates; not indicative of all liberals or causation
What's implied:
Liberals inherently downplay immigration scale as a trend
Impact: Creates false pattern of liberal denialism, reinforcing partisan divides and motivating readers to distrust opposing views.
Uses present tense and direct contrast to create false immediacy around multi-year cumulative data, portraying ongoing crisis without temporal nuance.
Problematic phrases:
"People underestimate""entered the country under the Biden-Harris administration"What's actually there:
Cumulative from 2021-2024; many expulsions ongoing
What's implied:
Current, escalating influx without resolution
Impact: Heightens emotional response, making readers feel the issue demands immediate action rather than informed policy debate.
Sources & References
External sources consulted for this analysis
https://budget.house.gov/download/ogr-icymi
https://www.factcheck.org/2024/02/breaking-down-the-immigration-figures/
https://americafirstpolicy.com/issues/illegal-immigration-remains-at-record-high-under-biden-harris-administrations-failed-policies
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2024/08/12/51-million-border-illegally-biden-fact-check/74595944007/
https://www.reuters.com/fact-check/biden-immigration-program-misrepresented-online-2024-07-03/
https://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/biden-three-immigration-record
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/fact-checking-the-trump-white-houses-claims-about-illegal-immigration-dropping-sharply
https://axios.com/2025/08/21/unauthorized-immigrants-record-2023
https://www.yahoo.com/news/no-51m-illegals-not-entered-203512760.html
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/illegal-immigrants-biden-admin-amount-greater-population-36-states
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/new-report-reveals-massive-number-illegal-immigrants-benefiting-from-biden-harris-admins-quiet-amnesty
https://thehill.com/opinion/immigration/4919724-biden-harris-criminal-illegal-aliens/amp
https://www.foxnews.com/us/border-data-shows-how-biden-harris-admin-stacks-up-against-trump-immigration
https://foxnews.com/politics/new-data-reveals-illegal-immigrants-eluding-border-patrol-spiked-under-biden-surpassing-predecessors
https://x.com/TheRabbitHole84/status/1916217292364640649
https://x.com/TheRabbitHole84/status/1883000834788860184
https://x.com/TheRabbitHole84/status/1912638739031175637
https://x.com/TheRabbitHole84/status/1846720883135557710
https://x.com/TheRabbitHole84/status/1872786834838966499
https://x.com/TheRabbitHole84/status/1870903298276163848
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/fact-checking-the-trump-white-houses-claims-about-illegal-immigration-dropping-sharply
https://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/biden-three-immigration-record
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0jp4xqx2z3o
https://budget.house.gov/download/ogr-icymi
https://www.factcheck.org/2024/02/breaking-down-the-immigration-figures/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/immigration/2024/02/11/trump-biden-immigration-border-compared/
https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/10/01/migrant-encounters-at-u-s-mexico-border-have-fallen-sharply-in-2024/
https://www.factcheck.org/2024/02/breaking-down-the-immigration-figures/
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna159777
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/clyn2p8x2eyo
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/24/us/politics/trump-immigration-fact-check.html
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/number-illegal-migrants-entered-us-since-biden-took-office-approaching-two-million
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/illegal-immigrants-biden-admin-amount-greater-population-36-states
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/southern-border-migrant-encounters-decrease-slightly-gotaways-still-surge-under-biden.amp
https://x.com/TheRabbitHole84/status/1916217292364640649
https://x.com/TheRabbitHole84/status/1912638739031175637
https://x.com/TheRabbitHole84/status/1883000834788860184
https://x.com/TheRabbitHole84/status/1846720883135557710
https://x.com/TheRabbitHole84/status/1849183881737720027
https://x.com/TheRabbitHole84/status/1872786834838966499
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