Post by @JonErlichman
91% credible (94% factual, 83% presentation). The frequencies of S&P 500 declines since 1928 are highly accurate and align with data from Macrotrends and Investopedia. However, the presentation suffers from omission framing by not discussing recovery patterns or the overall upward trend of the index, which impacts the completeness of the analysis.
Analysis Summary
The post outlines the average frequency of various percentage drops in the S&P 500 since 1928, such as 1% drops occurring 50-60 times per year and 25% drops every 5-7 years. These statistics align closely with historical data from sources like Macrotrends and Investopedia, confirming their general accuracy for long-term market behavior. However, the presentation focuses solely on decline frequencies without discussing recovery patterns or the overall upward trend in the index over time.
Original Content
The Facts
The provided frequencies are supported by historical S&P 500 data analyses from reliable sources, showing close matches for average occurrences of these declines since 1928. Minor variations may exist due to exact calculation methods, but the figures are not exaggerated or misleading. Verdict: Highly Accurate
Benefit of the Doubt
The author advances a perspective that market declines are a normal and frequent part of investing, likely to normalize volatility and encourage long-term holding amid current market concerns. It emphasizes the regularity of drops to downplay fear, shaping reader perception as reassuring rather than alarming. Key omissions include recovery durations (e.g., markets often rebound quickly after 1-5% drops), the net positive annual returns (around 10% average since 1928), and contextual factors like economic events driving larger declines, which could provide a more balanced view of risk versus reward.
How Is This Framed?
Biases, omissions, and misleading presentation techniques detected
The content details decline frequencies but omits recovery timelines and the S&P 500's overall positive long-term performance, creating an incomplete view of market dynamics.
What's actually there:
S&P 500 average annual return ~10% since 1928; minor drops (1-5%) often recover in days/weeks
What's implied:
Declines occur frequently without balancing gains or rebounds
Impact: Leads readers to view volatility as predominantly negative, potentially fostering undue fear or complacency without understanding net rewards.
Exclusively highlights downside risks through decline statistics, ignoring counter-evidence like historical recoveries and economic drivers of growth.
What's actually there:
Markets have positive returns in ~73% of years since 1928; large drops often tied to recessions but followed by bull markets
What's implied:
Declines are the primary feature of market behavior
Impact: Shapes perception toward risk aversion or overconfidence in normalcy, omitting balanced risk-reward context that could alter investment decisions.
Selects only decline metrics for presentation, cherry-picking data that supports a narrative of routine volatility without including upside frequencies or net trends.
What's actually there:
S&P 500 rises ~53% of trading days; average bull market duration 4.4 years vs. bear 1.4 years
What's implied:
Focus solely on drops to emphasize their commonality
Impact: Misleads by narrowing scope to negatives, potentially biasing readers against short-term reactions while encouraging unnuanced long-term holding.
Sources & References
External sources consulted for this analysis
https://www.macrotrends.net/2324/sp-500-historical-chart-data
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Closing_milestones_of_the_S&P_500
https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/042415/what-average-annual-return-sp-500.asp
https://tradethatswing.com/a-history-of-stock-market-percentage-declines-15-to-50-in-charts/
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500
https://www.investing.com/indices/us-spx-500-historical-data
https://www.guggenheiminvestments.com/advisor-resources/interactive-tools/sp-500-historical-trends
https://www.fool.com/investing/stock-market/indexes/sp-500/annual-returns/
https://www.fool.com/investing/2025/11/15/stock-market-last-seen-in-great-recession-decline/
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-24/s-p-500-snaps-longest-streak-without-a-2-decline-since-2007
https://www.fool.com/investing/2025/04/19/sp-500-12th-biggest-4-day-decline-75-years-history/
https://captrader.com/en/analysis/historisch-hohe-bewertung-im-sp-500-gerechtfertigt
https://investing.com/analysis/sp-500-correlation-breakdown-and-1966-analog-indicate-weakening-momentum-200670003
https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/605212-robert-allan-schwartz/4831186-annual-returns-of-s-and-p-500-from-1928-to-2015
https://x.com/JonErlichman/status/1237887576494792704
https://x.com/JonErlichman/status/1593637683846414336
https://x.com/JonErlichman/status/1242125166978772993
https://x.com/JonErlichman/status/1240059459646431238
https://x.com/JonErlichman/status/1536377890082029568
https://x.com/JonErlichman/status/1161765712072990721
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Closing_milestones_of_the_S&P_500
https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/042415/what-average-annual-return-sp-500.asp
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_daily_changes_in_the_S&P_500_Index
https://www.macrotrends.net/2324/sp-500-historical-chart-data
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500
https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/lujnvo/sp_500_since_1950_graph_showing_all_crashes/
https://www.investing.com/indices/us-spx-500-historical-data
https://cryptopolitan.com/sp-500-yield-falls-to-dot-com-1-2
https://tradethatswing.com/a-history-of-stock-market-percentage-declines-15-to-50-in-charts/
https://icfs.com/financial-knowledge-center/sp-500-weekly-drops-5
https://www.fool.com/investing/2025/07/26/sp-500-plunge-30-with-100-historical-success-rate/
https://xtb.com/int/market-analysis/news-and-research/us500-loses-1
https://easternherald.com/2025/11/21/sp-500-plunges-1-6-market-sell-off
https://investopedia.com/s-and-p-500-gains-and-losses-today-index-drops-as-investors-brace-for-tariffs-to-take-effect-11689978
https://x.com/JonErlichman/status/1593637683846414336
https://x.com/JonErlichman/status/1237887576494792704
https://x.com/JonErlichman/status/1536377890082029568
https://x.com/JonErlichman/status/1242125166978772993
https://x.com/JonErlichman/status/1240059459646431238
https://x.com/JonErlichman/status/1854292606517215692
Want to see @JonErlichman's track record?
View their credibility score and all analyzed statements