Post by @KobeissiLetter
85% credible (90% factual, 77% presentation). The predicted copper shortage for 2026 aligns with forecasts from Morgan Stanley and other sources, accurately reflecting expected deficits due to supply disruptions and rising demand. However, the presentation omits potential supply responses like new mine developments or recycling efforts, resulting in a framing violation that impacts overall credibility.
Analysis Summary
The post warns of a severe copper market deficit in 2026, the largest in 22 years at -590,000 tons, widening to -1.1 million tons by 2029, driven by production contractions and surging demand from AI data centers and electric vehicles. Morgan Stanley's forecast supports this claim, highlighting global supply shocks and mine disruptions. While demand pressures are emphasized, potential supply responses like increased mining investments are not addressed.
Original Content
The Facts
The claims align with recent analyses from Morgan Stanley and other sources like Reuters and ICSG, confirming expected deficits due to supply disruptions and rising demand; minor exaggeration in phrasing but factually supported. Verdict: Mostly Accurate
Benefit of the Doubt
The author advances a bullish perspective on copper prices by highlighting impending shortages to encourage investment awareness, framing the narrative around inevitable supply-demand imbalances. Key omissions include potential mitigating factors like new mine developments or recycling efforts, which could soften deficits, and geopolitical risks that might alter demand. This selective emphasis shapes reader perception toward viewing copper as a strong long-term asset, potentially overlooking market volatility.
Predictions Made
Claims about future events that can be verified later
Copper is set for a historic shortage next year
Prior: 55% based on base rates for commodity shortage predictions in volatile markets. Evidence: High author credibility (85% truthfulness, financial expertise), corroborated by Morgan Stanley reports and web sources on 2026 deficits. Posterior: 80%.
The deficit is expected to widen by 2029 to a whopping -1.1 million tons
Prior: 50% for long-term commodity projections. Evidence: Strong author track record, bias toward bullish markets noted but data aligns with sources like Financial Post and ICSG warnings of widening gaps. Posterior: 85%.
At the same time, demand from AI data centers and electric vehicles is expected to outpace supply
Prior: 60% for demand forecasts in green tech. Evidence: Author bias toward bullish trends, but supported by X posts and web sources on AI/EV surge; high truthfulness. Posterior: 87%.
Visual Content Analysis
Images included in the original content
VISUAL DESCRIPTION
A bar chart depicting global copper surplus/deficit from 2021 to 2030, with negative blue bars indicating deficits; the 2026 bar is highlighted in a red box showing approximately -0.59 million tons; y-axis ranges from 1M to -2M tons, x-axis shows years.
TEXT IN IMAGE
Copper Supply Shocks Set the Stage For Shortages Morgan Stanley expects the biggest deficit in 22 years next year Global surplus/deficit of copper supply 1M tons 0 -1M 2021 '22 '23 '24 '25 '26 '27 '28 '29 2030 Source: Morgan Stanley, Bloomberg
MANIPULATION
No signs of editing, inconsistencies, or artifacts; appears to be a standard professional chart from a financial source.
TEMPORAL ACCURACY
The chart provides forecasts up to 2030 based on 2025 data, aligning with the post's 2025 publication date and recent Morgan Stanley reports.
LOCATION ACCURACY
The image is a data visualization with no specific locations depicted, so spatial framing is not applicable.
FACT-CHECK
The chart accurately represents Morgan Stanley's projections of copper deficits, corroborated by web sources like Reuters and Investing.com articles from October 2025 confirming a 2026 deficit around 150,000 to 590,000 tons due to supply issues.
How Is This Framed?
Biases, omissions, and misleading presentation techniques detected
Omits potential supply responses like new mine developments or recycling efforts, presenting shortages as unavoidable.
Problematic phrases:
"This comes as global annual copper production is on course to contract""Copper miners have already struggled for years to keep pace"What's actually there:
Forecasts acknowledge possible investments but not detailed here
What's implied:
No mitigations possible
Impact: Misleads readers into overestimating the permanence of deficits and underestimating market adaptability, biasing toward immediate investment.
Fails to mention geopolitical risks or alternative demand scenarios that could alter projections.
Problematic phrases:
"demand from AI data centers and electric vehicles is expected to outpace supply"What's actually there:
Demand growth supported but volatile due to external factors
What's implied:
Uninterrupted surging demand
Impact: Shapes perception of copper as a low-risk, high-reward asset by ignoring uncertainties, encouraging overly optimistic views.
Uses dramatic language to create immediacy for events projected years ahead, implying action is needed now.
Problematic phrases:
"set for a historic shortage next year""Higher copper prices are here to stay"What's actually there:
Projections for future years
What's implied:
Imminent crisis
Impact: Triggers hasty decision-making by evoking fear of missing out on price gains, despite the longer timeline.
Highlights extreme deficit projections while neglecting broader historical or comparative production scales.
Problematic phrases:
"most severe deficit in 22 years""whopping -1.1 million tons"What's actually there:
Deficits factual per sources, but global production ~22M tons annually provides context
What's implied:
Crisis-level threat without scale
Impact: Amplifies perceived magnitude, leading readers to undervalue relative impact on overall market stability.
Sources & References
External sources consulted for this analysis
https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/commodities/copper-outlook
https://www.devere-group.com/copper-price-forecast-2026-analysts-issue-bullish-outlook-amid-supply-shortage/
https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/morgan-stanley-sees-sustained-copper-rally-into-2026-on-supply-woes-weak-dollar-4277602
https://www.investing.com/news/economic-indicators/copper-to-hold-gains-in-2026-as-mine-disruptions-fuel-deficit-reuters-poll-4310814
https://www.reuters.com/business/slower-production-growth-will-push-copper-market-deficit-2026-says-icsg-2025-10-08/
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/jp-morgan-sees-copper-prices-11000mt-2026-10-tariffs-by-late-3q25-2025-03-03/
https://za.investing.com/news/commodities-news/morgan-stanley-sees-sustained-copper-rally-into-2026-on-supply-woes-weak-dollar-3911045
https://mining.com/copper-price-hits-record-in-london-on-supply-worries/copper-supply-shocks-set-the-stage-for-shortages-morgan-stanley-expects-the-biggest-deficit-in-22-years-next-year-3
https://markets.financialcontent.com/wral/article/marketminute-2025-10-29-morgan-stanley-bets-big-on-commodities-gold-and-copper-shine-amidst-inflationary-pressures
https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/copper-rallies-to-record-on-us-china-hopes-and-supply-setbacks
https://theoregongroup.com/commodities/copper/international-copper-study-group-warns-of-150000t-deficit-in-2026
https://www.reuters.com/business/copper-hold-gains-2026-mine-disruptions-fuel-deficit-2025-10-27/
https://investing.com/news/economic-indicators/copper-to-hold-gains-in-2026-as-mine-disruptions-fuel-deficit-reuters-poll-4310814
https://markets.financialcontent.com/wral/article/marketminute-2025-10-29-coppers-historic-ascent-london-prices-shatter-records-amidst-unprecedented-supply-squeeze
https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1832893881479737409
https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1816549676537020471
https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1976276099215786320
https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1976276090059710839
https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1791533816349171731
https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1961079323579810022
https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/commodities/copper-outlook
https://www.sahmcapital.com/news/content/why-coppers-supply-crisis-could-deliver-20-30-returns-through-2027-2025-10-03
https://agmetalminer.com/2025/10/14/copper-prices-drift-up-despite-surplus/
https://www.reuters.com/business/copper-hold-gains-2026-mine-disruptions-fuel-deficit-2025-10-27/
https://www.investing.com/news/economic-indicators/copper-to-hold-gains-in-2026-as-mine-disruptions-fuel-deficit-reuters-poll-4310814
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/07/there-isnt-enough-copper-in-the-world-shortage-could-last-until-2030.html
https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/morgan-stanley-sees-sustained-copper-rally-into-2026-on-supply-woes-weak-dollar-4277602
https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/copper-rallies-to-record-on-us-china-hopes-and-supply-setbacks
https://www.reuters.com/business/copper-hold-gains-2026-mine-disruptions-fuel-deficit-2025-10-27/
https://theoregongroup.com/commodities/copper/international-copper-study-group-warns-of-150000t-deficit-in-2026
https://rocksandstocks.news/supply-disruptions-to-keep-coppers-price-outlook-positive
https://indexbox.io/blog/copper-prices-reach-record-high-on-london-metal-exchange
https://mining.com/copper-price-hits-record-in-london-on-supply-worries/copper-supply-shocks-set-the-stage-for-shortages-morgan-stanley-expects-the-biggest-deficit-in-22-years-next-year-3
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/morgan-stanley-sees-sustained-copper-141922920.html
https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1832893881479737409
https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1816549676537020471
https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1976276099215786320
https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1976276090059710839
https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1961079323579810022
https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1976276096174927976
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