Post by @EYakoby
12% credible (14% factual, 9% presentation). The claim of Andrew Cuomo leading in NYC-specific Kalshi bets contradicts public Kalshi odds and polls favoring Zohran Mamdani, with no independent verification of the 'internal' data. The post's omission of this contradictory evidence and its advocacy-oriented framing significantly undermine its credibility.
Analysis Summary
A tweet claims internal Kalshi data shows Andrew Cuomo leading Zohran Mamdani in NYC-specific bets for the mayoral election, suggesting stronger local support for Cuomo. However, public Kalshi markets and polls indicate Mamdani as the overall favorite, casting doubt on the 'internal' data's representativeness. The post aims to boost Cuomo's momentum on Election Day.
Original Content
The Facts
The claim relies on unverified 'internal' Kalshi data, which contradicts publicly available Kalshi odds favoring Mamdani (e.g., 56-82% chances in recent reports). While localized betting patterns could exist, no independent confirmation supports Cuomo's lead in NYC bets, and the author's history of advocacy-oriented posts suggests potential exaggeration. Overall verdict: Misleading
Benefit of the Doubt
The post advances a pro-Cuomo, anti-Mamdani agenda by framing unverified betting data as evidence of widespread New Yorker support, timed for Election Day to influence perceptions. Key omissions include broader Kalshi market data showing Mamdani's lead and the speculative nature of prediction markets, which are not polls but trader sentiments. This selective presentation shapes readers toward believing Cuomo has hidden momentum, ignoring counter-evidence from polls and national betting trends.
Visual Content Analysis
Images included in the original content
VISUAL DESCRIPTION
A screenshot of a Kalshi-branded graphic on X (Twitter) featuring side-by-side photos of Zohran Mamdani (left, blue background) and Andrew Cuomo (right, orange background), with a central title 'NYC SUPPORT'. Percentages show Mamdani at 40% and Cuomo at 49%, overlaid on a gradient background. Includes Kalshi logo, X branding, and timestamp.
TEXT IN IMAGE
BREAKING: Cuomo holds significantly more support inside of NYC than Mamdani, per Kalshi data. NYC SUPPORT Mamdani 40% Kalshi Cuomo 49% 11:15 AM 11/3/25 23K views
MANIPULATION
No visible signs of editing, inconsistencies, or artifacts; appears to be a genuine screenshot of a social media post with a prediction market graphic.
TEMPORAL ACCURACY
Timestamp shows '11:15 AM 11/3/25', matching the current date of 2025-11-03, aligning with ongoing NYC election coverage on Election Day.
LOCATION ACCURACY
The graphic explicitly references 'NYC SUPPORT' and features NYC mayoral candidates, consistent with the claim about New York City-specific betting data.
FACT-CHECK
The image purports to show Kalshi data indicating Cuomo at 49% vs. Mamdani at 40% in NYC bets, but public Kalshi reports (e.g., from Fox Business and OddsChecker) show Mamdani as the favorite overall (48-59% odds). No verification of this specific 'internal' NYC subset; likely a selective or unconfirmed metric, as Kalshi's main markets favor Mamdani.
How Is This Framed?
Biases, omissions, and misleading presentation techniques detected
Labeling unverified internal data as 'BREAKING' creates false immediacy on Election Day to influence perceptions, despite no evidence of new or time-sensitive developments.
Problematic phrases:
"BREAKING:"What's actually there:
Public Kalshi markets favor Mamdani (56-82% odds)
What's implied:
Sudden, urgent shift in NYC betting
Impact: Leads readers to overestimate Cuomo's momentum and urgency, prompting hasty support without verifying broader data.
Fails to mention public Kalshi markets and polls showing Mamdani as favorite, omitting context that the 'internal' NYC data may not represent overall trends.
Problematic phrases:
"Internal Kalshi data reveals that Cuomo actually holds a lead""New Yorkers believe Cuomo will win"What's actually there:
Public data indicates Mamdani lead; betting not equivalent to polls
What's implied:
NYC bets reflect widespread New Yorker belief in Cuomo
Impact: Misleads readers into viewing isolated data as definitive support for Cuomo, suppressing awareness of contradictory evidence and inflating perceived local backing.
Focuses on narrow 'bets placed in NYC' to imply broad support, neglecting denominator of total bets and national trends favoring Mamdani.
Problematic phrases:
"bets placed in NYC"What's actually there:
Overall Kalshi markets show Mamdani lead
What's implied:
NYC-specific bets indicate majority New Yorker preference
Impact: Exaggerates Cuomo's support scale by cherry-picking localized data, leading readers to misjudge the election's competitive balance.
Implies betting leads directly cause or reflect 'New Yorkers believe Cuomo will win,' without evidence linking trader sentiments to public opinion.
Problematic phrases:
"New Yorkers believe Cuomo will win"What's actually there:
Prediction markets reflect trader biases, not polls
What's implied:
Betting patterns = public belief
Impact: Creates false causal link, convincing readers that betting data proves voter sentiment rather than speculative trading.
Sources & References
External sources consulted for this analysis
https://www.natesilver.net/p/is-the-nyc-mayoral-race-tightening
https://www.fox5ny.com/election/nyc-mayor-polls-mamdani-cuomo-sliwa-adams-oct-28-election-day
https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/prediction-markets-favor-democrats-new-york-new-jersey-virginia-election-day-races
https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/oct-28-nyc-election-cuomo-120915415.html
https://www.oddschecker.com/us/insight/specials/politics/20251023-new-york-city-mayor-odds-zohran-mamdani-extends-lead-over-andrew-cuomo-in-final-weeks
https://www.politicspa.com/nyc-mayor-race-odds-tracker/
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https://www.covers.com/politics/new-york-city-mayor-election-odds-2025
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https://michaellange.nyc/p/predicting-every-block-of-the-2025
https://www.vegasinsider.com/odds/nyc-mayor-election-odds/
https://emegypt.net/1028484
https://x.com/EYakoby/status/1940818695338840103
https://x.com/EYakoby/status/1941699342605091008
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https://x.com/EYakoby/status/1940818695338840103
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https://x.com/EYakoby/status/1980424520302215308
https://x.com/EYakoby/status/1941699342605091008
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