Post by @AiBreakfast
91% credible (95% factual, 83% presentation). The claim that the decline in U.S. job openings post-2022 aligns with post-pandemic labor market normalization rather than AI-driven changes is supported by economic data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. However, the presentation omits potential concurrent factors, resulting in a framing violation that slightly penalizes overall credibility.
Analysis Summary
The post corrects a misinterpretation of a graph showing U.S. total job openings peaking in 2022 and declining thereafter, asserting it reflects Covid-related economic effects rather than AI's influence via ChatGPT launch. Main finding: The decline aligns with post-pandemic labor market normalization, not AI-driven changes. Visual analysis confirms the graph's data trends match official economic reports from sources like the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Original Content
The Facts
The claim is factually supported by economic data indicating job openings surged during Covid recovery (2021-2022) and fell due to higher interest rates and cooling inflation, predating widespread AI adoption impacts. Verdict: True
Benefit of the Doubt
The author advances a perspective debunking AI hype around job displacement, emphasizing broader economic cycles tied to Covid to temper narratives of rapid technological disruption. Key insight: Omits nuanced factors like Federal Reserve policies raising rates in 2022-2023, which directly contributed to the decline, potentially simplifying the economic picture to highlight Covid's lingering effects. This selective framing shapes perception by redirecting blame from innovation to pandemic aftermath, fostering a more cautious view of AI's immediate societal impact.
Visual Content Analysis
Images included in the original content
VISUAL DESCRIPTION
A line graph depicting total U.S. job openings from 2005 to 2025, with a black line showing steady growth from 2005, a dip during the 2008-2009 financial crisis, sharp rise peaking around 2022 (over 12 million), followed by a steep decline to about 8 million by 2023-2025; a vertical dashed line marks the 'ChatGPT Launch' in late 2022; the y-axis is unlabeled but implies millions of openings; S&P 500 branding in the corner.
TEXT IN IMAGE
S&P 500 Total Job Openings Total Job Openings ChatGPT Launch 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
MANIPULATION
No signs of editing, inconsistencies, or artifacts; lines and data points appear consistent with standard economic charting styles, no deepfake elements or unnatural pixelation.
TEMPORAL ACCURACY
Graph extends to 2025 with data trends matching recent BLS reports up to mid-2025; ChatGPT launch marker aligns with November 2022 event, and decline reflects 2023-2025 economic data.
LOCATION ACCURACY
No specific locations depicted; graph is national U.S. economic data (implied by S&P 500 and job openings metric), matching the claim's general context without geographical claims.
FACT-CHECK
The graph accurately represents BLS JOLTS data on total job openings, peaking at 11.2 million in March 2022 post-Covid recovery and declining to around 8.1 million by October 2024 due to economic tightening; not manipulated, but the ChatGPT marker may imply causation where correlation exists—decline driven by macroeconomics, not AI.
How Is This Framed?
Biases, omissions, and misleading presentation techniques detected
The content attributes the job openings decline exclusively to Covid effects, omitting key economic factors like Federal Reserve interest rate hikes in 2022-2023 that significantly contributed to labor market cooling.
Problematic phrases:
"it is a graph about Covid"What's actually there:
Decline driven by multiple factors including post-pandemic normalization and monetary policy tightening
What's implied:
Decline solely due to Covid-related economic effects
Impact: Leads readers to overattribute the trend to lingering pandemic effects, underestimating policy influences and fostering a simplified, cautious perception of AI's role in job markets by redirecting focus from innovation to historical events.
Implies a direct, exclusive causal link between Covid and the graph's trends without substantiating it over other concurrent causes, creating an unsubstantiated attribution.
Problematic phrases:
"it is a graph about Covid"What's actually there:
Correlation with Covid recovery but causation shared with interest rates and inflation control
What's implied:
Direct causation by Covid alone
Impact: Misleads readers into accepting a single-cause narrative, reducing nuance in understanding economic recovery and potentially biasing views against AI disruption claims.
Sources & References
External sources consulted for this analysis
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
https://www.cdc.gov/covid/php/surveillance/index.html
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/covid-19-coronavirus-infographic-datapack/
https://data.who.int/dashboards/covid19/cases
https://www.kff.org/covid-19/global-covid-19-tracker/
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9563682/
https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0332794
https://www.cdc.gov/covid/php/covid-net/index.html
https://www.zdnet.com/article/graph-analytics-and-knowledge-graphs-facilitate-scientific-research-for-covid-19/
https://neo4j.com/graphs4good/covid-19/
https://sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042720301068
https://nature.com/articles/s41598-025-95372-5
https://www.tigergraph.com/press-article/graph-analysis-help-for-covid-19-tracking-and-research-efforts/
https://x.com/AiBreakfast/status/1609360022055837697
https://x.com/AiBreakfast/status/1645281704914071553
https://x.com/AiBreakfast/status/1653188250633371658
https://x.com/AiBreakfast/status/1631469141843648512
https://x.com/AiBreakfast/status/1647647775499378688
https://x.com/AiBreakfast/status/1764664736556490867
https://fortune.com/2025/10/31/chatgpt-job-openings-stock-market-sp500-scariest-chart-world-derek-thompson-monetary-policy/
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2025/oct/01/us-jobs-market-yet-to-be-seriously-disrupted-by-ai-yale-study-chatgpt
https://budgetlab.yale.edu/research/evaluating-impact-ai-labor-market-current-state-affairs
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/since-chatgpt-launched-job-openings-100300867.html
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/new-data-show-no-ai-jobs-apocalypse-for-now/
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/clyk7zg0gzvo
https://vibecentral.ai/report/ai-economy/ai-and-the-us-job-market-in-2025-job-displacement-creation-and-economic-impact/
https://eyeonhousing.org/2025/10/how-covid-19-reshaped-the-u-s-labor-market-and-housing-demand/
https://pbs.org/newshour/economy/u-s-job-openings-in-august-were-essentially-unchanged-amid-economic-uncertainty
https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-8898/
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy/u-s-job-openings-jump-to-two-year-high-in-boost-to-labor-market-idUSKBN2BT1TY
https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-ECONOMY/OCCUPATIONS/znpnbrlwjpl/
https://www.epi.org/blog/historic-job-growth-in-2022-reflects-strong-but-uneven-economic-recovery-state-and-local-lawmakers-should-prioritize-rebuilding-the-public-sector-in-2023/
https://crfb.org/blogs/2022-us-economy-ten-charts
https://x.com/AiBreakfast/status/1625594172815339521
https://x.com/AiBreakfast/status/1715184983147516049
https://x.com/AiBreakfast/status/1738747547739390322
https://x.com/AiBreakfast/status/1937726113116979455
https://x.com/AiBreakfast/status/1623068891672088576
https://x.com/AiBreakfast/status/1649601344746196992
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