Post by @michaeljburry
85% credible (90% factual, 77% presentation). Michael Burry's correction on his Tesla short position and dilution figures for Tesla (3.6% annually) and Palantir (4.6%) are factually accurate and align with recent financial analyses. However, the presentation quality is reduced by omission framing that neglects Tesla's strong growth metrics and cash flow generation, which could offset dilution concerns.
Analysis Summary
Michael Burry clarifies that he did not disclose a short position on Tesla in his recent Substack post, correcting media outlets like Fortune and Bloomberg for misinterpreting his comments and an old 13F filing. He emphasizes Tesla's ongoing shareholder dilution at 3.6% annually without buybacks, exacerbated by Elon Musk's proposed $1 trillion pay package, rendering the stock ridiculously overvalued. He extends similar criticism to Palantir, noting 4.6% dilution despite buybacks and no earnings after stock-based compensation adjustments.
Original Content
The Facts
Burry's correction on his short position aligns with his cryptic posting style and past media misinterpretations of 13F filings, as evidenced by his history of public clarifications; the dilution figures for Tesla (3.6% annually) and Palantir (4.6%) are consistent with recent financial analyses from sources like Bloomberg and Reuters, though exact calculations depend on specific periods and adjustments for stock-based compensation. Opposing views from Tesla supporters highlight strong growth metrics (e.g., revenue up 8% YoY in Q3 2025) and Musk's pay package as performance-incentivized, potentially offsetting dilution through value creation, while Palantir defenders point to its AI-driven revenue growth exceeding 30% annually despite dilution. Overall verdict: Mostly Accurate, with subjective valuation opinion.
Benefit of the Doubt
Burry advances a value-investing perspective skeptical of tech hype, using his platform to critique overvaluation and dilution in Tesla and Palantir as cautionary tales against speculative bubbles, while correcting media to maintain narrative control. Key omissions include lack of detailed sourcing for dilution rates or full financial models, potentially understating counterarguments like Tesla's cash flow generation ($13B free cash flow in 2024) or Palantir's profitability trajectory post-SBC adjustments. This selective framing emphasizes present value destruction via charts (implied but not shown here) and cult-like investor behavior, shaping perception toward bearish caution without addressing long-term growth narratives that could justify premiums.
Predictions Made
Claims about future events that can be verified later
With recent news of Elon Musk’s $1 trillion dollar pay package, dilution is certain to continue.
Prior: 60% base rate for dilution predictions tied to comp packages. Evidence: Web:4, web:5 report package details; author's bearish bias noted but 80% truthfulness and 2025 data support. Posterior: 85%.
Visual Content Analysis
Images included in the original content
VISUAL DESCRIPTION
Screenshot of a Fortune news article webpage, featuring the magazine's logo in the top left, a red 'Subscribe' button in the top right, the article title in large bold text, byline 'By Marco Quiroz-Gutierrez Reporter', publication date 'December 1, 2025 3:07 PM ET', and social sharing icons at the bottom.
TEXT IN IMAGE
FORTUNE Subscribe ‘Big Short’ investor Michael Burry revives his short bet against Tesla, calling the stock ‘ridiculously overvalued’ By Marco Quiroz-Gutierrez Reporter December 1, 2025 3:07 PM ET Add us on G
MANIPULATION
No signs of editing, inconsistencies, or artifacts; appears to be a genuine mobile or desktop capture of a legitimate news site with standard layout and fonts.
TEMPORAL ACCURACY
Article dated December 1, 2025, aligns with the current date context (early December 2025) and recent web search results confirming similar Burry-Tesla stories published around this time.
LOCATION ACCURACY
Image depicts an online article from Fortune's website, with no geographical claims in the content; the digital nature matches the tweet's reference to media reporting without implying a physical location.
FACT-CHECK
The article title and content match reported web results from Fortune and similar outlets (e.g., Bloomberg, Reuters) on Burry's Tesla criticism dated December 1-2, 2025; reverse image search context confirms it's a real article criticizing Tesla's valuation, though Burry disputes the 'short bet' revival interpretation.
How Is This Framed?
Biases, omissions, and misleading presentation techniques detected
Omits Tesla's strong growth metrics and cash flow generation that could offset dilution, presenting dilution as unmitigated value destruction.
Problematic phrases:
"The chart above shows the kind of present value destruction that this level of dilution can impart.""Tesla’s market capitalization is ridiculously overvalued today"What's actually there:
Tesla generated $13B free cash flow in 2024 and revenue up 8% YoY in Q3 2025
What's implied:
Dilution solely destroys value without growth offsetting it
Impact: Leads readers to undervalue Tesla's performance and overemphasize dilution risks, fostering bearish sentiment.
Presents Palantir's dilution and lack of earnings as uniquely negative without noting AI-driven revenue growth exceeding 30% annually.
Problematic phrases:
"Palantir has no earnings after adjusting for stock-based compensation.""Palantir has the distinction of being the first billionaire:revenue ratio greater than one"What's actually there:
Revenue growth >30% YoY and improving profitability trajectory
What's implied:
Company is fundamentally flawed due to dilution and no earnings
Impact: Skews perception toward viewing Palantir as overvalued without balanced view of growth potential.
Uses pattern language to imply a recurring cycle of hype and failure in Tesla's strategy shifts, based on selective historical examples.
Problematic phrases:
"all-in on electric cars until competition showed up, then all-in on autonomous driving until competition showed up, and now is all-in on robots – until competition shows up."What's actually there:
Shifts are strategic responses to market evolution, not inevitable failures
What's implied:
Pattern of repeated hype collapse upon competition
Impact: Creates illusion of predictable failure, discouraging investment without evidence of causation.
Implies Musk's pay package will directly cause continued dilution and value destruction without evidencing net impact on enterprise value.
Problematic phrases:
"With recent news of Elon Musk’s $1 trillion dollar pay package, dilution is certain to continue."What's actually there:
Pay package is performance-based, potentially aligned with value creation
What's implied:
Pay package solely exacerbates dilution harm
Impact: Misleads on causation, portraying compensation as destructive rather than incentivizing.
Sources & References
External sources consulted for this analysis
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/02/burry-tesla-valuation.html
https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/big-short-investor-burry-targets-tesla-after-slamming-ai-valuations-2025-12-01/
https://electrek.co/2025/12/01/the-big-short-michael-burry-slams-tesla-tsla/
https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/elon-musks-tesla-faces-fresh-criticism-from-big-short-investor-michael-burry
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-02/burry-says-tesla-ridiculously-overvalued-targets-musk-pay-plan
https://invezz.com/news/2025/12/02/michael-burry-renews-bearish-bet-against-tesla-citing-valuation-and-dilution-risks/
https://www.hngn.com/articles/268927/20251202/michael-burry-criticizes-elon-musks-tesla-cites-36-annual-shareholder-dilution.htm
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/burry-shorts-tesla-valuation-musk-035316577.html
https://www.techtimes.com/articles/313102/20251202/michael-burry-criticizes-elon-musks-tesla-cites-36-annual-shareholder-dilution.htm
https://finance.yahoo.com/video/burry-says-tesla-shares-ridiculously-154402385.html
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/michael-burry-attacks-tesla-valuation-123018811.html
https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/elon-musks-tesla-faces-fresh-criticism-from-big-short-investor-michael-burry
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/michael-burry-calls-tesla-ridiculously-165555380.html
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/technology/tech-news/one-of-the-biggest-wall-street-investors-michael-burry-calls-stock-based-compensation-for-employees-offered-by-tesla-google-amazon-and-other-tech-companies-as-penalizing/articleshow/125733006.cms
https://x.com/michaeljburry/status/1991300811494662464
https://x.com/michaeljburry/status/1988778952299802818
https://x.com/michaeljburry/status/1987918650104283372
https://x.com/michaeljburry/status/1991219697031999736
https://x.com/michaeljburry/status/1993060087045448009
https://x.com/michaeljburry/status/1990977620360430000
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/02/burry-tesla-valuation.html
https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/big-short-investor-burry-targets-tesla-after-slamming-ai-valuations-2025-12-01/
https://electrek.co/2025/12/01/the-big-short-michael-burry-slams-tesla-tsla/
https://www.benzinga.com/markets/large-cap/25/12/49165695/michael-burry-hates-teslas-value-but-isnt-short-the-stock
https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/elon-musks-tesla-faces-fresh-criticism-from-big-short-investor-michael-burry
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/michael-burry-says-tesla-is-ridiculously-overvalued-slams-musk-pay-package-150113993.html
https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/michael-burry-calls-tesla-ridiculously-overvalued-in-new-blog-post-4384233
https://www.techtimes.com/articles/313102/20251202/michael-burry-criticizes-elon-musks-tesla-cites-36-annual-shareholder-dilution.htm
https://parameter.io/tesla-tsla-stock-michael-burry-reveals-short-position-based-on-valuation-concerns/
https://coincentral.com/tesla-tsla-stock-the-big-short-investor-just-bet-against-elon-musk/
https://bitcoinethereumnews.com/finance/michael-burry-said-tesla-is-ridiculously-overvalued-at-209x-forward-earnings-and-criticized-its-3-6-annual-stock-dilution
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/burry-shorts-tesla-valuation-musk-035316577.html
https://forbes.co/2025/12/02/tecnologia/el-famoso-inversor-michael-burry-advierte-que-acciones-de-tesla-estan-sobrevaluadas-de-forma-ridicula/
https://invezz.com/es/noticias/2025/12/02/michael-burry-renueva-su-apuesta-bajista-contra-tesla-citando-riesgos-de-valoracion-y-dilucion/
https://x.com/michaeljburry/status/1991300811494662464
https://x.com/michaeljburry/status/1988778952299802818
https://x.com/michaeljburry/status/1993060087045448009
https://x.com/michaeljburry/status/1987918650104283372
https://x.com/michaeljburry/status/1990609176783938034
https://x.com/michaeljburry/status/1991219697031999736
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