Post by @MBjegovic
72% credible (79% factual, 65% presentation). The post accurately reflects market trends such as high AI valuations and slowing growth, supported by credible charts on cloud segment slowdowns and capex parallels to the dot-com bubble. However, the bearish framing omits positive economic indicators like resilient consumer spending, and the speculative nature of recession predictions introduces interpretive caution.
Analysis Summary
Marko Bjegovic defends Michael Burry's warnings on market disconnect from fundamentals, declining growth, and an AI CAPEX bubble, emphasizing Nvidia's revenue tactics and underpriced recession risks. The post highlights a bearish economic outlook, supported by charts showing slowing cloud growth, historical capex parallels to the dot-com bubble, and AI investment interconnections. Opposing views suggest AI's transformative potential could sustain growth despite high valuations.
Original Content
The Facts
The post's claims align with observable market trends like high AI valuations and slowing growth indicators, but recession predictions remain speculative amid mixed economic data. Supporting charts from credible sources validate slowdowns in cloud segments and capex parallels, though bearish bias overlooks potential AI productivity gains. Mostly Accurate with Interpretive Caution.
Benefit of the Doubt
Bjegovic advances a bearish agenda critiquing AI hype and official economic narratives to warn investors of an impending correction, positioning himself as a data-driven skeptic. Key omissions include AI's long-term innovation potential and recent positive earnings from Nvidia, which could counter bubble fears, while emphasizing negative trends shapes a pessimistic perception. Selective use of historical analogies and growth decline charts amplifies recession risks without addressing counterarguments like resilient consumer spending or Fed policy flexibility.
Predictions Made
Claims about future events that can be verified later
7) Yes, the #recession risk is way underpriced.
Prior: 50% (recession odds vary). Evidence: Web sources on Burry's crash warnings; author's track record. Posterior: 75%.
11) Yes, this means that the mkt will need to have a number of negative yrs to get to its 8%-ish LT mean.
Prior: 60% (mean reversion likely but timing uncertain). Evidence: Historical precedents; Burry's views. Posterior: 75%.
12) No, the Fed, the government, or whoever will not be able to prevent that.
Prior: 45% (policy effectiveness debated). Evidence: Historical examples; author's skepticism of Fed. Posterior: 60%.
Visual Content Analysis
Images included in the original content
VISUAL DESCRIPTION
Bar chart comparing average year-over-year growth rates in cloud segments for Amazon, Alphabet, and Microsoft across two periods: black bars for 2018-2022 and red bars for 2023-2025, showing a decline in growth for all three companies.
TEXT IN IMAGE
Average Cloud Segment YoY Growth Average growth rates across two key periods 2018-2022 Average 2023-2025 Average Amazon 36% 17% Alphabet 45% 29% Microsoft 29% 22% Source: Company 10-K filings
MANIPULATION
No signs of editing; standard chart with consistent axes and labeling.
TEMPORAL ACCURACY
Data covers up to 2025, aligning with recent fiscal periods from 10-K filings.
LOCATION ACCURACY
No geographical elements; focuses on corporate data.
FACT-CHECK
Growth rates match reported figures from company filings; Amazon AWS growth slowed to ~17% average in recent years, Alphabet ~29%, Microsoft ~22%, accurately depicting deceleration.
VISUAL DESCRIPTION
Line chart plotting 5-year CAGR for US tech sector capex (green line) and US TMT group capex (gray line) from 2000 to 2025, with a red circle highlighting the recent surge matching the 1999-2000 peak, vertical gray bars indicating recessions.
TEXT IN IMAGE
Chart 1: US Tech Capex Growth is Matching the Tech Bubble of 1999-2000 US TMT and Tech Capex -5yr Growth Rate US Tech sector: Capex growth (5yr CAGR) [18.1%] US TMT Group: Capex growth (5yr CAGR) [8.8%] Source: ASR Ltd / Worldscope / LSEG Datastream
MANIPULATION
No artifacts or inconsistencies; professional graphing style with clear sourcing.
TEMPORAL ACCURACY
Chart extends to 2025 projections, using historical data up to present for comparison.
LOCATION ACCURACY
US-focused economic data with no specific locations.
FACT-CHECK
Historical capex growth during dot-com era peaked similarly; recent AI-driven surge to ~18% CAGR is verifiable via sources like Worldscope, supporting bubble analogy though not proving causation.
VISUAL DESCRIPTION
Network diagram illustrating financial and partnership flows in the AI ecosystem, with circles representing companies sized by market value (e.g., Nvidia $4.5T, OpenAI $500B), colored arrows showing investments, deals, and chip supplies among entities like Microsoft, AMD, Oracle, and startups.
TEXT IN IMAGE
How Nvidia and OpenAI Fuel the AI Money Machine Circles sized by market value Hardware or Software Investment Services Venture Capital Ambience Healthcare Harvey AI Anysphere $500B OpenAI Microsoft $3.9T Nubis CoreWeave OpenAI to deploy 6 GPUs. AMD gives AMD GPUs. AL option gives to buy up to 160 million shares. Nvidia agrees to invest up to $100B in OpenAI. Nvidia $4.5T OpenAI links a $300B cloud deal with Oracle. AMD Oracle spends tens of billions on Nvidia chips. Nscale Mistral Figure AI xAI Source: Bloomberg News reporting
MANIPULATION
Clean vector graphics from Bloomberg; no editing signs.
TEMPORAL ACCURACY
References recent deals like Nvidia's $100B OpenAI investment and ongoing partnerships as of 2025.
LOCATION ACCURACY
Global tech companies, no specific locations claimed.
FACT-CHECK
Depicted deals align with Bloomberg reports: Nvidia's OpenAI investment, AMD share options, Oracle's Nvidia chip spending (~$ tens of billions), and cloud partnerships are accurately represented.
How Is This Framed?
Biases, omissions, and misleading presentation techniques detected
Fails to mention positive economic indicators like resilient consumer spending or Nvidia's recent strong earnings, which could mitigate bubble and recession concerns.
Problematic phrases:
"No, the economy is not "strong", "resilient", "healthy", "solid", "stable"""Yes, the #recession risk is way underpriced"What's actually there:
Nvidia reported positive earnings in recent quarters; mixed economic data shows consumer resilience
What's implied:
Economy is weak and recession inevitable without counterpoints
Impact: Leads readers to perceive the economy as uniformly deteriorating, heightening unfounded panic about imminent collapse.
Omits discussion of AI's potential long-term transformative effects, framing investments solely as a bubble without balanced innovation perspective.
Problematic phrases:
"Yes, the AI CAPEX is in a bubble.""No, double-digit mkt (or triple-digit AI related) performance yr after yr is not normal."What's actually there:
AI investments linked to productivity gains in high-level context
What's implied:
AI hype is purely speculative without upside
Impact: Misleads readers into dismissing AI growth as unsustainable, ignoring potential for sustained value creation.
Cherry-picks declining growth rates and bubble analogies while neglecting broader market segments or historical recoveries.
Problematic phrases:
"Yes, the growth rate is declining.""Yes, bubbles can expand further, but no, they don't last forever."What's actually there:
Charts show slowdowns but overall economy mixed per high-level context
What's implied:
Universal decline across all sectors
Impact: Exaggerates the scope of economic weakness, making recession seem more pervasive than data supports.
Uses emphatic language to create false immediacy around recession risks and market corrections.
Problematic phrases:
"not by any stretch of the imagination""way underpriced"What's actually there:
Speculative risks, not immediate per truth assessment
What's implied:
Imminent crisis requiring urgent action
Impact: Prompts hasty investor decisions based on perceived immediate threats rather than long-term analysis.
Sources & References
External sources consulted for this analysis
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2025/oct/23/ai-bubble-economy-workers-wage-growth
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/23/opinion/ai-bubble-economy-bust.html
https://www.wired.com/story/ai-bubble-will-burst/
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/absolutely-a-market-bubble-wall-street-sounds-the-alarm-on-ai-driven-boom-as-investors-go-all-in-200449201.html
https://hbr.org/2025/10/is-ai-a-boom-or-a-bubble
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/if-ai-is-bubble-economy-will-pop-with-it-2025-10-01/
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/09/07/what-if-the-ai-stockmarket-blows-up
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/us-stock-market-crash-warning-big-short-legend-michael-burry-breaks-silence-after-2-years-warns-another-ai-stock-bubble-is-here/articleshow/125068343.cms
https://tickeron.com/trading-investing-101/are-we-in-the-ai-bubble-crash-or-in-the-recession-of-2025
https://thehill.com/business/5471080-tech-sector-ai-bubble-fears/
https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/is-nvidia-stock-ai-a-bubble-citi-says-2024-is-shaping-up-to-be-a-repeat-of-1999-3337993
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-bubble-crash-2026-artificial-intelligence-ai-interest-rates-2024-4
https://nai500.com/blog/2025/11/ai-bubble-concerns-mount-can-nvidia-stand-firm/
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4835684-nvidia-the-ai-bubble-is-about-to-get-much-bigger-rating-upgrade
https://x.com/MBjegovic/status/1865932952846152038
https://x.com/MBjegovic/status/1843081430374678538
https://x.com/MBjegovic/status/1757451480632635673
https://x.com/MBjegovic/status/1664284479777808386
https://x.com/MBjegovic/status/1947618400563319147
https://x.com/MBjegovic/status/1801414264697012497
https://www.businessinsider.com/big-short-michael-burry-bubble-warning-x-account-scion-crash-2025-10
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/big-short-michael-burry-put-option-bet-palantir-nvidia-bubble-2025-11
https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/big-short-investor-michael-burry-warns-of-a-bubble-after-2-years-of-silence-4322342
https://ts2.tech/en/michael-burrys-1-1-billion-bet-will-the-ai-stock-bubble-burst-on-nvidia-and-palantir/
https://nai500.com/blog/2025/11/burry-bets-against-nvda-pltr-after-ai-bubble-alarm/
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/us-stock-market-crash-warning-big-short-legend-michael-burry-breaks-silence-after-2-years-warns-another-ai-stock-bubble-is-here/articleshow/125068343.cms
https://stockcircle.com/portfolio/michael-burry
https://fortune.com/2025/11/04/big-short-investor-michael-burry-nvidia-palantir-puts-alex-karp/
https://www.tradingview.com/news/gurufocus:e3e5f6596094b:0-michael-burry-warns-of-ai-bubble-targets-nvidia-and-palantir-with-massive-puts/
https://nai500.com/blog/2025/11/burry-bets-against-nvda-pltr-after-ai-bubble-alarm/
https://www.indexbox.io/blog/michael-burry-bets-against-ai-stocks-nvidia-and-palantir/
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/us-stock-market-crash-warning-big-short-legend-michael-burry-breaks-silence-after-2-years-warns-another-ai-stock-bubble-is-here/articleshow/125068343.cms
https://parameter.io/big-short-investor-michael-burry-bets-1-1-billion-against-nvidia-and-palantir/
https://invezz.com/news/2025/11/04/nvidia-stock-falls-is-michael-burrys-short-a-sign-of-whats-coming/
https://x.com/MBjegovic/status/1865932952846152038
https://x.com/MBjegovic/status/1843081430374678538
https://x.com/MBjegovic/status/1664284479777808386
https://x.com/MBjegovic/status/1757451480632635673
https://x.com/MBjegovic/status/1947618400563319147
https://x.com/MBjegovic/status/1801414264697012497
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