Not Credible

Post by @Lebona_cabonena

4% credible (5% factual, 2% presentation). The claim of 27 million foreigners in South Africa is debunked by fact-checkers like Africa Check and News24, with official estimates indicating around 2-4 million foreign-born residents. The infographic's use of unverified SIM card data and its promotion of anti-immigrant sentiment constitute severe framing violations and logical fallacies, including hasty generalization.

Factual claims accuracy

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Presentation quality

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Analysis Summary

A social media post claims South Africa hosts 27 million foreigners, citing RICA'd SIM card data from various nationalities. This figure is grossly exaggerated and debunked by fact-checkers like Africa Check and News24, with official estimates placing foreign-born residents at around 2-4 million. The infographic promotes anti-immigrant sentiment without verifiable evidence.

Original Content

Factual

Emotive

Opinion

Prediction

We have 27 million foreigners in South Africa.

The Facts

The claim relies on unverified and misinterpreted data from SIM card registrations, which do not accurately reflect population or citizenship status. Fact-checks from sources like News24 and Africa Check confirm similar assertions (e.g., 15 million or 10 million undocumented foreigners) are false, with Stats SA estimating about 2.9 million foreign-born individuals in 2022. Verdict: False

Benefit of the Doubt

The post advances an anti-immigrant agenda by sensationalizing unverified numbers to portray foreigners as an overwhelming burden on South Africa, aligning with the author's history of posts criticizing immigration and political entities. Key omissions include the lack of official sources, failure to note that multiple SIM cards per person or temporary registrations inflate counts, and ignoring documented xenophobic tensions fueled by such misinformation. This selective framing shapes perception by emphasizing fear of 'invasion' while downplaying economic contributions of migrants and lower actual figures from census data.

Visual Content Analysis

Images included in the original content

VISUAL DESCRIPTION

A simple text-based infographic with a South African flag emoji, listing estimated numbers of foreigners from specific countries in bullet points, culminating in a bold total of 27 million, attributed to RICA'd SIM cards from cellphone networks.

TEXT IN IMAGE

Number of foreigners in SA 🇿🇦 according to Cellphone Networks (ISPs): 8.7 million Zimbabwean 6.2 million Nigerian 2 million Ethiopian 2 million Somalian 2 million Pakistanis 2 million Bangladeshis 1.8 million malawians 1.1 million Tanzanians & others. ESTIMATED TOTAL: 27 MILLION. Source: RICA'd Cellphone Sim Cards.

MANIPULATION

Not Detected

No signs of editing, deepfakes, or artifacts; appears to be a straightforward graphic created for social media sharing.

TEMPORAL ACCURACY

unknown

No dates or timestamps visible in the image; the claim circulates in 2025 posts, but source data (RICA) is ongoing without specified timeframe, making recency unverifiable.

LOCATION ACCURACY

matches_claim

The content explicitly references South Africa (SA) with flag emoji and focuses on national cellphone networks, aligning with the post's geographic claim.

FACT-CHECK

The infographic's data is unsubstantiated; fact-checks (e.g., News24 July 2025 article) confirm no official immigration database uses SIM registrations this way, and totals far exceed Stats SA's 2.9 million foreign-born estimate. Similar claims of 15-27 million have been repeatedly debunked as misinformation exploiting RICA data misinterpretation.

How Is This Framed?

Biases, omissions, and misleading presentation techniques detected

criticalscale: denominator neglect

The claim inflates the foreign population by treating SIM card registrations as unique individuals, neglecting South Africa's total population (around 60 million) and the fact that registrations include locals, multiples per person, and tourists.

Problematic phrases:

"We have 27 million foreigners"

What's actually there:

2.9 million foreign-born (Stats SA 2022)

What's implied:

27 million unique foreigners equating to nearly half the population

Impact: Leads readers to perceive foreigners as a dominant majority, fostering fear of resource strain and cultural dilution rather than a small minority.

highomission: missing context

Fails to explain that SIM registrations do not equate to residency or citizenship, omitting how temporary or duplicate registrations distort counts.

Problematic phrases:

"citing RICA'd SIM card data from various nationalities"

What's actually there:

SIM data includes non-residents and multiples; official foreign-born ~2-4 million

What's implied:

Impact: Misleads by presenting raw data as population proof, hiding nuances that would reveal the exaggeration and reduce perceived threat.

highomission: unreported counter evidence

Ignores fact-checks and official statistics debunking similar claims, such as prior false assertions of 10-15 million undocumented foreigners.

Problematic phrases:

"27 million foreigners in South Africa"

What's actually there:

Debunked; estimates 2-4 million total foreign-born

What's implied:

Impact: Prevents balanced view, allowing misinformation to fuel xenophobia by excluding evidence of lower numbers and migrants' contributions.

mediumurgency: artificial urgency

Presents the figure in a declarative, alarmist tone implying an immediate crisis or 'invasion,' despite static data from ongoing registrations.

Problematic phrases:

"We have 27 million foreigners"

What's actually there:

No evidence of sudden surge; cumulative and misinterpreted

What's implied:

Impact: Creates false sense of pressing threat, prompting reactive anti-immigrant attitudes over thoughtful policy discussion.

Sources & References

External sources consulted for this analysis

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Africa_Check

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https://www.news24.com/opinions/fridaybriefing/fact-check-are-there-really-10-million-foreigners-in-south-africa-20241121

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https://africacheck.org/

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https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-66808346

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https://apnews.com/article/south-africa-health-migration-hospitals-dudula-24aa36cade936d51f7f7be74b261df42

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https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/02/addressing-egregious-actions-of-the-republic-of-south-africa/

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https://www.news24.com/southafrica/debunking/claim-that-sim-card-data-shows-27m-foreigners-in-sa-nearly-half-the-population-is-false-20250714-0486

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https://www.timeslive.co.za/news/south-africa/2020-11-23-mashaba-checked-over-claim-that-there-are-15-million-undocumented-foreigners-in-sa/

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https://www.news24.com/opinions/fridaybriefing/fact-check-are-there-really-10-million-foreigners-in-south-africa-20241121

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https://africacheck.org/fact-checks/reports/15-million-undocumented-foreigners-south-africa-herman-mashaba-wrong-again

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https://checkyourfact.com/2020/04/30/fact-check-south-african-president-ramaphosa-order-foreigners-vacate-country-covid-19/

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https://africacheck.org/fact-checks/spotchecks/are-there-15-million-undocumented-immigrants-living-south-africa-no-another

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https://www.iol.co.za/the-star/news/sa-has-millions-of-foreigners-who-are-unaccounted-for-says-home-affairs-minister-df58eb9f-7e80-4b99-8cc3-b13a431d721e

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https://x.com/Lebona_cabonena/status/1942671083423031673

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https://x.com/Lebona_cabonena/status/1733036623560876234

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https://x.com/Lebona_cabonena/status/1675358953553920001

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https://x.com/Lebona_cabonena/status/1898093497900474377

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https://x.com/Lebona_cabonena/status/1573996542612193281

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https://x.com/Lebona_cabonena/status/1937407656387579947